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2021 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe tips: why this horse can win Sunday's big race

Tarnawa, Adayar and Chrono Genesis: three popular picks for the 2021 Arc at Longchamp
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Sunday's Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe is shaping up to be another outstanding race with top-class challengers drawn together from Europe and beyond. Our experts highlight who they think will come out on top in the big race at Longchamp.


3.05 Longchamp Sunday: Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe racecard and betting


Adayar

5-2 generally, win

Value is extremely hard to find in races like the Arc as ante-post markets have been available for months and most of the runners are proven Group 1 performers – they aren't hiding their true ability.

As exciting as this year's Arc is, I believe it'll be dominated by those towards the head of the market. For me, the value of the race is Adayar, who should be around 9-4 favourite.

He showcased a high cruising speed and electric turn of foot in the Derby and left Mishriff trailing in his wake in the King George. Too much has been made of his minor setback (he's been back in training formore than three weeks since) and he's the horse to beat.
Tom Collins, tipster


2021 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe declarations: confirmed runners– plus a top tip


Alenquer

33-1 with bet365 (25-1 generally), each-way

William Haggas has campaigned Alenquer like he believes he is capable of winning a Group 1, and I think he could reward that bravery by running another bold race on Sunday.

Don't forget he beat Adayar in the Classic Trial on good ground in April and the rain forecast midweek should mean it is no firmer than that on raceday.

Alenquer (pale blue) beat the subsequent Derby and King George winner Adayar (right) at Sandown in April

He was disadvantaged tactically in the Grand Prix de Paris, in which he was given far too much to do behind Hurricane Lane, and then ran a belting race behind Mishriff over an inadequate mile and a quarter in the Juddmonte International.

A son of Adlerflug finished second in last year's running – In Swoop – and a strongly run race should also bring out the best in this colt.

Everything is in his favour for a career-best effort and he can defy his 33-1 odds by hitting the frame.
Maddy Playle, journalist

Chrono Genesis

10-1 generally, win

Sightings of Chrono Genesis come well spaced out but, on the evidence of her record at home in Japan and her trip to Dubai in March, she looks one of the very best recent Japanese challengers to be sent to Europe's richest race, arguably the most credentialed since two-time runner-up Orfevre.


Oisin Murphy thrilled by first meeting with Japanese Arc hope Chrono Genesis


She was beaten a neck by Mishriff in the Sheema Classic despite being hampered by compatriot Loves Only You as the pair launched their respective challenges, while running the mighty Almond Eye to three-quarters of a length over a mile and a quarter in the Tenno Sho last October further illustrates that this daughter of 2004 Arc hero Bago is out of the top drawer.

Chrono Genesis won her second G1 Takarazuka Kinen in June under Christophe Lemaire and will be the ride of Oisin Murphy in the Arc

Should the going come up very soft she will have a question mark against her – Chrono Genesis has performed well on yielding ground in Japan but that bears little resemblence to Longchamp when it gets really deep – but there aren't many at the top of the market who would really relish such conditions.

Her price has steadily contracted in the last couple of weeks but given her level of form there is still some juice in the current odds, a comment that might also apply to compatriot Deep Bond for those looking for one to fill the frame.
Scott Burton, France correspondent


2021 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe: where have the key Longchamp fancies been drawn?


Hurricane Lane

6-1 generally, win

While it's difficult to have an easy race in the St Leger, Hurricane Lane cruised through to win with ease at Doncaster, and he has already proved this summer that a quick turnaround is no issue – he dominated the Grand Prix de Paris over the Arc course and distance less than three weeks after posting a similarly authoritative victory in the Irish Derby.

William Buick's decision to partner stablemate Adayar saw an immediate swelling of support for the Derby winner, but it can't have been an easy choice and remember Buick was left well behind in third when partnering Hurricane Lane (who lost both his fore shoes along the way) over Adayar in the Derby.

Hurricane Lane: the St Leger winner bidding to buck the trend

The statistic that will be trotted out in opposition is that no Leger winner has ever followed up in the Arc, but not every Leger winner has the talent of Hurricane Lane and the bits and pieces of rain forecast around Paris for this week will do his chances no harm.
Sam Hendry, journalist


Who will win the 2021 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe based on previous trends?


Tarnawa

5-2 generally, win

It's boring, but it's better to be boring and right than adventurous and wrong. Tarnawa is the most likely Arc winner and if all the horses were the same price I'm sure most of you would back her.

The problem is the price. She is now no bigger than 11-4(she is 5-2 generally) and given she is up against Adayar and Hurricane Lane, not to mention giving weight to Snowfall, the value has dissolved.

Dermot Weld has said all season he has one aim and one aim only – the Arc. The Irish Champion Stakes was another stepping stone en route to Longchamp but what a stepping stone it was.

Tarnawa has had a light campaign, geared towards peaking in autumn – something you could not say about her main rivals.

Another two furlongs on softer ground is just what the doctor ordered and everything looks in place for a career-best from the five-year-old, who is almost certainly getting better with age.
David Jennings, deputy Ireland editor


Read more on the 2021 Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe:

Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe: Adayar and Snowfall supplemented for €120,000

2021 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe: essential info for the big race at Longchamp

'Sunday is not good'– rain could turn Arc day ground soft at Longchamp


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Tarnawa is the most likely Arc winner and if all the horses were the same price I'm sure most of you would back her
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