Well-treated Aalto bids for Bunbury Cup compensation - analysis and trainer quotes for Ascot cavalry charge

Royal Ascot form has been the key to winning this race in recent years. Eight of the last ten winners ran at the big one here last month and the Royal Hunt Cup and Buckingham Palace Stakes have provided six of them, so punters will focus on those two races again this season.

Northern Express finished fifth in the Buckingham Palace last year and came on to win this race two starts later. He takes a similar route this season, having finished seventh in that race at the royal meeting and fourth at Haydock last time, improving on his Ascot run there.

He will need to take another step forward, but did last year and is now 3lb lower than when winning 12 months ago. It’s therefore easy to make a case for him on weights and measures.

However, Aalto comes out best on those. He races off a mark 1lb lower than when an unlucky loser in the Bunbury Cup at Newmarket last time and is due to go up 4lb for that. 

Akkadian Thunder was behind Aalto at Newmarket, but ahead of Northern Express when second in the Buckingham Palace here last month and he was the only horse to get near winner Never So Brave. That form looks good given that rival has since won a Group 2.

Danyah was the last Buckingham Palace runner-up to win here four years ago and a reproduction of Akkadian Thunder’s royal run might be good enough, even off 4lb higher.

Galeron is the only horse to represent the Royal Hunt Cup. He finished 20th there, but stepped forward when seventh at Sandown last time and a strongly run seven furlongs on a stiff track may just be his optimum. Charlie Hills has also booked Mickael Barzalona to ride.
Analysis by Graeme Rodway

Ian Williams: 'Aalto will need luck in running'

Aalto, beaten a nose by handicap blot More Thunder when bidding for back-to-back Bunbury Cups a fortnight ago, could now be described in similar terms as he bids for rich compensation in this £150,000 cavalry charge.

The talented five-year-old, who competed off an official mark of 92 at Newmarket, is able to race off 1lb lower this time, which is 5lb below his new rating of 96.

More Thunder is expected to develop into a Group horse later this year, and Aalto’s trainer Ian Williams believes he has the gelding in prime form to take advantage of his old mark.

“He ran a stormer in the Bunbury Cup and gets in off a 1lb lower mark here,” Williams said. “He’s in good form and handicapped to go well, but will need luck in running.”

Ian Williams: trainer of AaltoCredit: Edward Whitaker

Aalto is drawn low in stall three, while most of those closest to him in the betting are berthed in much higher numbers.

“I don’t know whether stall three is a positive or a negative,” Williams said. “We probably won’t know until after the race.”

William Buick partners Aalto for the first time.

What they say

Ralph Beckett, trainer of Zoum Zoum
He likes Ascot. Seven furlongs on fast ground suits him better than six furlongs on that sort of ground.

George Scott, trainer of City House 
He's paid the price for running consistently in Bahrain. He's a little bit high in the weights but on some of his past form he's capable of running well if things drop right.

Barry Mahon, racing manager to Juddmonte, owners of Array
He is not back to his two-year-old form, but has been progressing steadily all year. I would be hopeful of a nice run.

Michael Dods, trainer of Northern Express
It’s dried up nicely, so the ground will suit him. It’s a very competitive race, but he does like Ascot and is a few pounds lower in the handicap than when he won it last year. The horse is very well in himself.

James Fanshawe: doubly represented in the International HandicapCredit: Edward Whitaker

James Fanshawe, trainer of Fresh and Al Ameen
They are two brothers. Fresh won this race three years ago and seems in good form. Seven furlongs at Ascot is ideal for him. His style of running means that he’ll always need a bit of luck, but his handicap mark is a bit lower than when he won it. Al Ameen’s best form is on the all-weather. He has improved this year and his owners are keen to give him a go away from the sand. It’s a really good prize to be aiming it.

Roger Varian, trainer of Qazaq
He’s a nice horse and is in good form. He’s very lightly raced and we’re hoping that his best days are ahead of him. He ran a nice race on his comeback and should be better suited to Ascot.
Reporting by Richard Birch

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