'Stepping back up to the mile will suit him well' - is The Lion In Winter set to deliver in the Jacques le Marois?

It is potentially a sign of the confusion that surrounds the mile division in Europe that those with established Group form at the trip are being somewhat shunned in the market, favour instead falling on the untapped potential of The Lion In Winter and the intriguing global form of Ascoli Piceno. 

It's easy to see where the allure lies. The Lion In Winter has had a much better preparation for this than the rushed road to the Derby, and showed plenty of zip when beaten little more than a neck in the Prix Jean Prat by Woodshauna, who franked the form in chasing home Sajir in the biggest sprint of the Deauville summer last weekend.

If you were to be hyper-critical of The Lion In Winter, he still took time to hit top gear and, even over an extra furlong, if a rival were to skip clear two out, it's easy to envisage him just running out of road again. 

Ascoli Piceno brings excellent form over 7f and a mile, and the question with her is whether she can handle a straight track. The choice of running more or less straight off the plane is an intriguing one. 

Docklands and Mark Zahra after winning the Queen Anne StakesCredit: Edward Whitaker (racingpost.com/photos)

Even the market's third choice, Notable Speech, has tried something different in the July Cup, and it's hard to escape the feeling that the established, solid milers are being overlooked. 

Docklands has a terrific record up the Ascot straight and while this is faster and flatter, it's a specialism which is dangerous to ignore. 

Dancing Gemini was only just run out of it by Lead Artist in the Lockinge and has been given a break since running below expectations in a funny renewal of the Queen Anne. 

Were he to strike at Group 1 level it would be far from out of turn.

O'Brien pleased with condition of Lion

A year ago this week The Lion In Winter looked to have the world at his feet after taking apart a fully-loaded Acomb Stakes at York, but life has not been straightforward since.

A setback ruled him out of the Dewhurst while the Guineas came and went without his participation, and a step up in trip to the Dante and the Derby proved not to be in his favour. 

A close-up third in a fast Prix Jean Prat last time showed that there may still be a serious racehorse there, with trainer Aidan O'Brien underlining that he was using that seven-furlong Group 1 as a stepping stone to the Prix Jacques le Marois (2.50). 

"Everything has gone well with The Lion In Winter since the last day and everybody is very happy," he said. "We think he's progressed nicely at home and we're expecting a good run. The last day was really a prep for the Marois. We were just getting him ready.

"It was a rush to get him to the Dante. We knew he was just about ready to start off in that. Then he went to the Derby and he didn't stay, so the last day was just a case of getting him back on the right track. We were delighted with him there and we think that stepping back up to the mile will suit him well.

Stablemate Diego Velazquez will sport the historic Sangster silks for the first time here and arrives off the back of a win in the 7f Minstrel Stakes, the same route taken by Ken Condon with Romanised in 2019.

O'Brien said: "I think Diego Velazquez will also appreciate the step up to a mile from seven furlongs. He seems to be in good form at home."

'She's a proper Group 1 filly' - Japanese hopes high for Ascoli Piceno

On form at least the bookmakers appear to have got the two Japanese runners pegged correctly, with Ascoli Piceno - winner of a valuable 7f race on the Saudi Cup undercard before striking in the Grade 1 Victoria Mile back in Tokyo  - rated the main danger to The Lion In Winter.

Trainer Yoichi Kuroiwa elected to travel quite late to France, rather than the traditional long stay ahead of many Japanese Arc bids, and has been pleased with Ascoli Piceno's build-up.

Ascoli Piceno and Christophe Lemaire after winning the G1 Victoria MileCredit: Masakazu Takahashi

"She is in good form and didn't lose much weight through travelling," said Kuroiwa. "We breezed on the Piste des Lions on Wednesday to sharpen her up as Chantilly is a very nice and quiet environment for horses. Everything has gone well."

Ascoli Piceno will be partnered by Japan-based Frenchman Christophe Lemaire, who is yet to win the Jacques le Marois, a race in which Japan tasted success with Taiki Shuttle in 1998. 

"It’s her first run over a straight track but I don’t think that will be an issue," said Lemaire. "She is a very handy filly and like most good Japanese horses, she knows her job and when to take a breath. 

"The good ground will be perfect for her. On soft ground last time in the Victoria Mile she had difficulty hitting top gear, but in Saudi Arabia she was very light on her feet and really comfortable." 

Lemaire added: "She’s a proper Group 1 filly who has the physique and the mindset, while she is tough and has plenty of experience. We have every right to approach the race with confidence." 

Go To First has graduated to stakes races this season but has not finished in the places in a pair of Grade 3 starts. It would not be a Qirat-level surprise were the Rulership colt to win, but he looks the definite second string of the Japanese challengers.

After Go To First breezed over six furlongs this week, trainer Koichi Shintani said: "I got him covered and only asked for a gentle reaction as he is a keen worker. He moved very well."

What they say

Nemone Routh, racing manager to the Aga Khan Studs, owners of Zabiari and Ridari
[Trainer] Mikel Delzangles is very happy with Ridari, who worked on Thursday under Cristian Demuro. Zabiari did a straightforward piece of work with Mickael Barzalona on board. They’re running more for a place I think, but they’re both well.

Roger Teal, trainer of Dancing Gemini
We freshened him up after Ascot to recharge the battery. It's a shame for Richard [Hannon] that Rosallion has come out, but it's still a very strong field. The Japanese filly [Ascoli Piceno] looks very tough, while Notable Speech could be very dangerous back at this trip. We had a hard race in the Lockinge but more than that, the pace of the race at Ascot was a joke, they crawled.

Dancing Gemini is reunited with Rossa Ryan in Sunday's Jacques le MaroisCredit: Edward Whitaker

Charlie Appleby, trainer of Notable Speech
Notable Speech goes into this in good order and we feel that stepping back up to a straight mile is going to suit. He looks very competitive in this field.

Harry Eustace, trainer of Docklands
I'm sure the fact that it's straight rather than stiff is the reason that Ascot plays to his strengths. We're really looking forward to seeing how that translates on a different straight track. It was always the plan to run here [as well as Goodwood]. He's a five-year-old colt and he gets more out of racing than training and it keeps him mentally sharp. He's won this year and that makes it easier to roll the dice.

Read more:

'He's overpriced on loads of pieces of straight track form' - Tom Segal is eyeing a Group 1 upset at Deauville 

'This is definitely the way to go' - the Cheltenham Festival-winning trainer going great guns on the Flat 

The Punt Acca: Harry Wilson with three tips from Pontefract and Southwell on Sunday 

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