Merchant a hot favourite for Gordon Stakes - but here's why his price is based on potential and better value may rest elsewhere

The Gordon Stakes is more than a St Leger trial. Perhaps even more than the other main trial for the Classic, York's Great Voltigeur, this race produces top middle-distance sorts down the line.

Considering its record, it is surprising so few recent winners ran in the Derby. In the last ten years, only two have lined up and one was Mogul from the topsy-turvy Covid year in 2020. Winners like Jan Brueghel, Cross Counter, Crystal Ocean and Highland Reel all skipped Epsom.

But the most relevant recent winner might be Desert Hero. He has walked a similar path to this year's favourite Merchant. Both won the King George V for William Haggas and then came to Goodwood as a pre-Leger test.

On bare form, Merchant's price is way out of whack. Adjusted Racing Post Ratings have him more than half a stone off the standard, set by Irish Derby fifth Sir Dinadan and Wimbledon Hawkeye. That just shows his potential is priced in the way Desert Hero's wasn't when he returned at 7-1 two years ago.

Sir Dinadan is one whose price is arguably generous. He was second in Goodwood's Derby trial, the Cocked Hat, and while he was beaten handsomely by stablemate Amiloc that horse looks set for Group 1s and Sir Dinadan beat the rest by daylight. He set a good gallop at the Curragh, which clearly implies that he is up to winning lesser Group races.

There may also be a rare case of some value about an Aidan O'Brien-Ryan Moore horse. O'Brien has had three of the last ten winners of the Gordon, so 30 per cent, but he has only had 13 per cent of the runners in that time. 

Galveston is O'Brien's sole representative this year. He has a fine, out-and-out middle-distance pedigree and set exacting fractions when third to Amiloc in the King Edward VII at Ascot. Where Merchant recalls Desert Hero, resolute galloper Galveston is an echo of last year's winner Jan Brueghel. Whoever wins will go to Doncaster with serious claims.
Race analysis by Keith Melrose

Galveston: represents Aidan O'Brien and has fine middle-distance pedigree Credit: Caroline Norris

Is Merchant too short?

Potential is favoured by the oddsmakers over proven form for this race, with Merchant the hot favourite despite coming into the contest with the second-lowest rating.

The five horses rated higher than Merchant are either Group winners or have been placed performances in such races. By contrast, Merchant is stepping into stakes company for the first time.

Yet this is no snap decision. Even before his victory in the King George V Stakes at Royal Ascot, Merchant had been entered in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes, signalling the belief of trainer William Haggas and owners Highclere Thoroughbred Racing.

Merchant and Tom Marquand after winning the King George V Stakes at Royal AscotCredit: Edward Whitaker

Harry Herbert, managing director of Highclere, said: “He’s always impressed William. Physically, he’s doing unbelievably well. Those who saw him in the paddock at Ascot were going, ‘Wow, this could be a very nice horse’, but we’re under no illusions that this is anything other than a tough race for him. 

“He’s progressive and, without being a betting man, I'd say his price is as much to do with how he won at Ascot – still looking green and doing so readily from a wide draw – as the fact he's still progressing. 

“We’re very pleased with how he’s been since he ran at Ascot and this has been the plan since then. We entered him in the King George to have a look and a discussion, but William and I thought this was always going to be the right race to help take him through the grades one step at a time. 

"This is the route you look to take with horses like him; we did it with Harbinger and there have been many others, it’s that stepping stone to the next level. We hope, and believe, he can take it.”

What they say

Roger Varian, trainer of Rahieeb
He’s been a slow developer but he’s learning with every start. The Queen’s Vase form has been well advertised as has his handicap form from the time before. We gave Merchant 8lb that day at York and we’re meeting him on level weights this time. He's dropping in trip and I see him as a staying horse for the future, so whether he’s sharp enough for this trip at Goodwood we’ll only find out by running.

Jamie McCalmont, racing manager to Marc Chan, owner of Sir Dinadan
Let's hope we get the rain that's forecast.

James Owen, trainer of Wimbledon Hawkeye
He’s been very consistent this term and he’s run a consistent race every time. I thought it was a fantastic run last time against the older horses and this is ideal for him back against his own age group over this trip. He’s very sound, very consistent and he enjoys his racing.

Barry Mahon, racing manager for Juddmonte, owner of Windlord
He’s in great form and has come out of Sandown well. We always felt he'd handle a step up in trip. His pedigree wouldn’t suggest it but his run style does, so if he stays then he should be competitive.

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