'He's very fresh and very well' - can Paddington bounce back to top form against Tahiyra in the QEII?

On British Champions Day, the stated aim is to find the champions of the season which is drawing to a close. On those idealised terms, Paddington absolutely deserves to be a warm order for the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes. He has won this season's Irish 2,000 Guineas, St James's Palace, Eclipse and Sussex.

Where Champions Day occasionally falls down is that it can come too late in the season for those with the best form to step up one last time. That is rarely more true than with Aidan O'Brien's most prolific three-year-olds.

There has always been something in Paddington that has brought to mind similar types from Ballydoyle, who start the season winning like Sea The Stars only for their arc to flatten out in autumn. This phenomenon is not just in our collective imagination.

The graphic shows O'Brien's strike-rate, for both winners and first-three finishers, in Britain through the months of the turf season. I've chosen to stick with Britain as his runners here lean more heavily towards top races. The peak in May is arguably the biggest takeaway, but that is not relevant now. You will see that for all horses, his record quickly reverts to something like the mean and stays constant all the way through the summer and autumn. But when it comes to three-year-olds, the trajectory is clearly downwards from midsummer onwards.

This is unlikely to be an accident. O'Brien knows the best opportunities for top-class three-year-olds are overwhelmingly in the first half of the season: four of the five Classics, Royal Ascot, and the Eclipse offers favourable weight-for-age conditions to the precocious. Paddington made the best of all of those. It would be entirely consistent if he were to have at least plateaued, or possibly already given his best in an adventurous campaign.

On top of that, he is hardly taking on a substandard field in the QEII. Nashwa is as hard as nails and handles testing ground. It has taken a real champion to beat French raider Big Rock this season, his most recent run excepted. And the biggest test of all could come from the horse who initially tracked Paddington's trajectory, but has been much more sparingly raced since.

Tahiyra was just touched off in the 1,000 Guineas on her reappearance but has an unblemished record since in sex-restricted Group 1s. She won the Irish 1,000 Guineas on Paddington's breakthrough weekend and followed him to Royal Ascot, winning the Coronation Stakes. She then had a summer break and returned to win the Matron at the Irish Champions Festival. She comes into this race much fresher as a result, even though Paddington has had more time since his most recent run at York. 

If you want to write the best possible stallion page, you would campaign a horse like O'Brien has Paddington. If your aim is to maximise Group 1 returns, and land the QEII, the patience Dermot Weld has demonstrated with Tahiyra could be the better strategy. History suggests that she might well be the bet.
Race analysis by Keith Melrose

O'Brien 'happy' with Paddington

Star juvenile City Of Troy appears the new Coolmore icon, but not that long ago Paddington was the name on everyone's lips.

A handicap winner at Naas in March who followed up at Listed level in May, he then swept all before him in the Irish 2,000 Guineas, St James's Palace, Eclipse and Sussex Stakes, but was only third in York's Juddmonte International on his latest start two months ago.

Paddington: winning run included the Sussex StakesCredit: Alan Crowhurst

"We're very happy with him," said trainer Aidan O'Brien.

"He has had a tough campaign but he just kept turning up time after time. He's delighted with himself at the moment. Everyone around him is very happy. He's very fresh and very well, and the little bit of time he had has really helped him. He had a busy time but was always able for everything we threw at him."

The trainer, seeking a record-equalling fifth win in Britain's most prestigious all-age mile race, added: "He ran a very good race at York and Ryan [Moore] was happy with him. It just didn't work but that can happen. We've been very happy with him since. 

"He seems versatile and all his early form was on soft ground, so we weren't sure about fast ground for him, but he went on fast ground the same as he went on soft.

"Ryan always rides him in a very uncomplicated way and I'd imagine that's what he'll do again. He's very straightforward."

Nashwa camp optimistic

Nashwa has been campaigned mainly over 1m2f and is pretty handy over that trip, but a suspicion has long lingered this test could suit. She has won both starts over a mile, including a devastating five-length success in the Group 1 Falmouth Stakes this summer.

Hollie Doyle, the only jockey to have ridden Nashwa, said: "The trip doesn’t seem to be an issue and she goes on any ground. 

"She’s been great lately when placed against the colts in the Juddmonte and Irish Champion, and those two runs have been close to her career-best."

The four-year-old is trained by Thady Gosden and his father John, who said: "Nashwa goes on any ground. She was finishing fast on quick ground in the Irish Champion last time and has also won on soft. Hopefully the ground won't be overly heavy in the straight, where it's meant to drain better than the round course. I thought the stiff mile on that ground would suit here better than a mile and a quarter."

What they say

Ralph Beckett, trainer of Angel Bleu
It's going to be tough, but he’s in very good form and when the ground became soft we made the decision to supplement. The ground will even everything up as he's a proven soft-ground performer, unlike some of the others.

William Knight, trainer of Checkandchallenge
It looks an exceptionally strong race, but conditions will suit and the straight mile is ideal. He ran well in the race last year and we’ll be delighted if he runs into a place. He’s trained well since the Prix Dollar. He probably needed that run because he had a bit of a break after York and he’s not been the easiest to train this year. We didn’t have him spot on for Longchamp but I feel he will be for this.

Jerome Reynier, trainer of Facteur Cheval
We’ve kept him back for this, choosing not to run on Arc weekend following his run in the Moulin. Physically he looks wonderful. It will be his last race of the year and, while I’m not saying he will win such a high-class race, I think he's in the sort of shape to put up a really good performance. Everything looks good with him and I hope things will go at least as well as they did at Goodwood in the Sussex.

Christopher Head, trainer of Big Rock
Everything has gone fine and he’s trained the same all season. He's very resilient and has a strong mind. He might be okay on the ground, but, even without Inspiral, we’ve got most of the best in Europe in Paddington, Tahiyra, Nashwa and Facteur Cheval.

Chaldean: trainer Andrew Balding seems bullishCredit: Mark Cranham

Andrew Balding, trainer of Chaldean
I couldn't be happier with him. He had a gallop at Kempton last week and was impressive, as I hoped he would be. He's working with great zest and goes there in good shape.

John Gosden, joint-trainer of Epictetus
He handles this sort of ground and deserves to take his chance. Obviously there are some quality horses in there but outside those it's pretty open.

Dermot Weld, trainer of Tahiyra
She's in great form and I'm very happy with her in every way going into the race.
Reporting by James Burn

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