'I really like him and he'll love the ground' - analysis and key quotes for the Balmoral Handicap

It is a nice change to see Britannia Stakes winner Docklands in this year's Balmoral. Normally the winner of that race heads off into Group company, or to Hong Kong for obscene money.

Yet it is a pretty rational choice to come back for this race and attempt a third course-and-distance win in seven career starts. If Docklands were to win the Balmoral, he would get the same prize money from his combined wins here in May and in the Britannia, plus nearly half again.

It is hardly wasting time either to build the second half of his three-year-old season around a £200,000 handicap. Lord Glitters won this race at four and still had time for a lengthy career in Group 1s, which included winning the Queen Anne.

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The problem with waiting for a big-field handicap at Ascot is you can easily be undone by the draw. Docklands' connections might have breathed a sigh of relief on seeing him come out in stall two, which will be right on the far rail if third reserve Graignes does not get a run.

There is a perception that, by this time of year, you want to be on the far side on Ascot's straight course. That means a low-numbered stall, but the stats do not back that up, nor does the history of this race.

In the nine runnings of the Balmoral, just 14 of the 36 horses to finish in the first four have broken from a single-digit stall. Restricting the analysis to runnings on soft and heavy returns a similar result. Given the maximum field size of 20, you would have expected a proportion very close to half, so this looks like a small bias against, rather than one in favour.

But the stats are not telling the full story. In each of the last five years, the action has concentrated on the far rail. Horses drawn low evidently do not get a significant advantage, but their riders have a more straightforward decision to make in the early furlongs.
Race analysis by Keith Melrose

What they say

Ralph Beckett, trainer of Sonny Liston
He’s in good form and Ascot’s straight mile brings out the best in him. Soft ground isn’t an issue either. Things haven’t gone his way this year. He won his side of the race in the Hunt Cup and then last time at Doncaster Ryan [Moore] got his reins tangled up and couldn’t use his whip and he was beaten only a nose.

William Haggas, trainer of Al Mubhir and Lattam
I really like Al Mubhir. He’ll love the ground, but I'm worried about his draw in stall 23. I originally didn’t think Lattam would get into the race. You needed to be 100 last year, and he’s only 95. He'll love the straight track and the ground.

Harry Eustace, trainer of Docklands
He seems in good form and it’s the obvious spot for him after Goodwood. We’re looking forward to running him and seeing how he matches up against the older handicappers. The track clearly suits him and I think he’ll stay a mile and a quarter next year. It’s a stiff mile, but he’s a strong traveller and he sees it out well. We’ll learn a lot. The only concern, if there is one, is that it’s been a long year for him because he started in March after an early holiday last year.

William Knight, trainer of Dual Identity
It seemed the likely race for him after the Cambridgeshire. He’ll like the straight track at Ascot and he won’t mind the soft ground, but hopefully it’s not too soft. He’ll be competitive, but whether he’s too high in the handicap to be winning a race like this remains to be seen.

Roger Teal, trainer of Dancing Magic
He’s had wind surgery since he last ran and if that helps him then he could run a nice race at a big price. He ran well at Newmarket in the Craven, but he was over keen at York. He ran a nice race the last day at Salisbury, but Tom [Marquand, jockey] suggested having surgery and he’s had that done.
Reporting by Liam Headd

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