Why I'll be letting someone else wade in at 8-11 on Field Of Gold in Saturday's Irish 2,000 Guineas

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The big question this week is whether Field Of Gold can win the Tattersalls Irish 2,000 Guineas and make up for the fact that he ran well in the Newmarket version but not quite well enough. So much chatter has suggested he should have won that day, it becomes easy to believe and he's a strong favourite at 8-11.

Oddly, we've been here before – a lot. The first Irish Classic of each year is often used as a chance for redemption by beaten horses from Newmarket.

In fact, ten of the last 15 favourites for the Irish 2,000 Guineas have been horses who'd got beaten in the English version. Only four of those managed to get the right result at the second attempt.Here's a quick canter through the list, in case we can glean some useful insight into Field Of Gold's situation.

The winners!

2024 Rosallion odds: 10-11

A Group 1 winner on Arc weekend as a juvenile, Rosallion had moved through the Newmarket Guineas like a class horse. Sadly for him, the race-fit Notable Speech moved just as fluidly around the far side of the field and finished more strongly.With the Godolphin horse staying at home, backers were very clear that Rosallion was the best talent on show in the Irish version. And they were right, but he still nearly got beat when stablemate Haatem got first run on him. Rosallion worked really hard and got up by a head. Yikes!

2022 Native Trail 2-5
A short price but it was easy to see why, Native Trail having been unbeaten until stablemate Coroebus beat him three parts of a length in the Newmarket Guineas. Perhaps the winner had been on a better strip of ground. Anyway, Native Trail had already won a Group 1 at the Curragh (the National Stakes), so, with Coroebus staying home, what could go wrong? Getting boxed in, for one thing – but Native Trail managed to extricate himself in time to score handily. It was his last hurrah, however. He was beaten in his final four races.

Native Trail: was successful in the Irish 2,000 Guineas in 2022Credit: Patrick McCann (racingpost.com/photos)

2014 Kingman 4-5
Here's another who had been unbeaten until the Newmarket Guineas, where Night Of Thunder bested him by half a length. It hadn't been a satisfactory race, with Kingman ending up alone on the far side while Night Of Thunder and Australia were on the near side, though the winner produced an impressive final burst. With neither of those to worry about this time, Kingman's chance was obvious, as long as you trusted him on soft ground. He proved to be fine on it, won by five lengths and was never beaten again.

2010 Canford Cliffs 9-4
It's easy to forget that Canford Cliffs had been 12-1 for the Newmarket Guineas, following defeats in the Morny and the Greenham. But he looked classy in third place behind Makfi and maybe a little unlucky with the way the race panned out.He was the obvious choice at the Curragh, in the absence of the pair who'd beaten him at Newmarket, and he justified market faith by cruising into contention before quickening clear. He was once more the horse who'd looked so promising in the Coventry 11 months earlier and would win Group 1s in his next four starts.

The losers!

2023 Royal Scotsman 6-4
It was easy to make a convincing case for this one, who had lots of good juvenile form, having been beaten just a head in the Dewhurst. He was too free in the 2,000 Guineas, his seasonal reappearance, but still ran well to be third of 14. Connections decided to supplement for the Irish version. He raced freely, not quite to the same extent, but then didn't pick up when the time came, finishing eight places behind Paddington. He only had one more run that year and reportedly suffered from bone-bruising.

2021 Lucky Vega 7-2
The Phoenix Stakes winner and runner-up in the Middle Park, he'd proved his stamina at Newmarket by staying on into a close third to Poetic Flare, beaten half a length. Perhaps surprisingly, he was made favourite to turn around the form with Poetic Flare. On different ground at the Curragh, officially soft to heavy, Lucky Vega got outpaced before staying on strongly but far too late into fourth. Victory went to Mac Swiney, who liked some cut, with Poetic Flare a close second.

Elarqam: finished sixth in the Irish 2,000 Guineas in 2018Credit: Edward Whitaker

2018 Elarqam 2-1
We got carried away here, for sure. A Group 3 juvenile winner, Mark Johnston's horse had been a one-paced fourth at Newmarket on his reappearance run, looking as though he needed further. At the Curragh, he was looking good in front at the home turn but came under a ride soon after and dropped out to be sixth. Victory went to Romanised (25-1), who showed a lot of improvement for the step up to a mile.

2013 Van Der Neer 5-2
He became the fourth Irish 2,000 Guineas favourite in a row to be trained by Richard Hannon Sr, the 2010 victory of Canford Cliffs having evidently left a lasting impression. Van Der Neer wasn't remotely in that class, although he had managed to stay on into a distant third at Newmarket behind Dawn Approach. Given a similar ride at the Curragh, he never picked up and came home eighth of ten. A step up in trip after that helped a bit but he didn't build on the Newmarket run and got sold to Hong Kong, where he was renamed Travel Brother. Aidan O'Brien had four in this Irish Guineas and, amazingly enough, got the 1-2 with Magician beating Gale Force Ten.

2012 Trumpet Major 9-4
The Craven Stakes winner, he'd been a fair fourth at Newmarket, where the ground was a bit softer than he liked. On good going at the Curragh, an improved showing was expected but, after settling in fourth, he didn't pick up and dropped out to be last. He coughed after the race. Things didn't get much better for him and he was never placed in five Group 1s.

2011 Dubawi Gold 7-4
This one's claim to fame is that he was second to Frankel in the Newmarket Guineas, beaten six lengths but still better than the others. Of course, it was fair to ask how much quality he had behind him. Dubawi Gold would never win a Group 1 in ten attempts but he put up a fair effort at the Curragh to be beaten three parts of a length. The winner was Roderic O'Connor, an Aidan O'Brien runner who'd been stuffed at Newmarket but had evidently needed the run.

What does it mean for Field Of Gold?

The thing that can go wrong for him, as for a couple of the above, is different ground. There's some rain in the forecast for the Curragh this week. Cut in the ground didn't seem to suit him at Longchamp in October.

Field Of Gold (far): chased home Ruling Court in the 2,000 GuineasCredit: Edward Whitaker

A strong-finishing second in the Guineas, arguably not suited by the way the race worked out, his claims are clearly stronger than the six above who were beaten at the Curragh. But it's interesting that a few of them performed so much less well than they'd managed at Newmarket, suggesting it can be hard to run to the necessary level twice inside a month.

Field Of Gold is about to have his third run in five weeks and one of the risks is that he might not be able to show his best form this time. Also, he's leaving the country, having finished in midfield the only time he tried that before. These are marginal risks but they're there. I'll let someone else wade in at 8-11.

Tattersalls Irish 2,000 Guineas, 3.40 Curragh, Saturday
Paddy Power: 8-11 Field Of Gold, 4 Cosmic Year, 5 Twain, 6 Officer, Ruling Court, 8 Hotazhell, 12 Currawood, Henri Matisse, Scorthy Champ, 14 bar

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