It'll be great to see Constitution Hill back - but it's time to be realistic about his chances of returning to the top

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"It's certainly a phenomenon in all walks of life." So said my Edinburgh mate Sick Boy when I asked him about Constitution Hill.

"At one time, you've got it. Then you lose it and it's gone forever." While I chewed my lip dubiously, he listed some examples: Georgie Best, David Bowie, Lou Reed, Charlie Nicholas, David Niven, Malcolm McLaren, Elvis Presley and not forgetting Sean Connery.

"So," I said, seeking clarity, "we all get old, we cannae hack it any more and that's it. That's your theory?"

No, you're right, I wasn't actually in that conversation. It's one of actor Jonny Lee Miller's best bits from the movie Trainspotting and it's just possible that those words say more about Sick Boy's character than about life. After all, Trainspotting is nearly 30 and still as watchable as ever, so the theory of inevitable decline has a hole in it somewhere.

But works of art don't age in quite the same way as athletes. All sportspeople know they won't have the job forever and as soon as they reach the top of the hill, it's just a matter of time before someone younger shoulder-shoves them onto the downward slope.

Constitution Hill got to the top of the hurdling game, that's for sure. For more than three years, he was unbeaten and seemingly unbeatable. 

Constitution Hill and Nico de Boinville return in triumph after the 2023 Champion HurdleCredit: GROSSICK RACING 07710461723

It would be interesting to know how long that streak might have continued if he'd kept his concentration when taking off at Cheltenham's fourth-last back in March. My guess is he'd still be unbeaten and would probably remain so as far as the next Champion Hurdle. 

But let's accept what actually happened. He had that lapse and fell, surely a very unsettling experience when it happens to you for the first time. Then he fell again, more heavily, three weeks later at Aintree. Three weeks after that, he put up the weakest effort of his whole career at Punchestown.

Now, he's less than a fortnight from returning to action and it's time to decide what we can reasonably expect from him. Do we just draw a line through three whole races and tell ourselves it will all be fine again?

I'm thinking not, partly because of Sick Boy's Universal Theory of Talent Decline. Constitution Hill is just old enough for his age to be a live issue, a few weeks away from turning nine.

If he were a handicapper, that would barely register. He'd have a good couple of seasons left in him, although he'd always be bumping into progressive seven-year-olds with a stone less to carry. But you need to be quick to compete in the best 2m hurdle races and, as any casual footballer knows, age is the enemy of speed. If Constitution Hill were a Sunday League player, his striking days would be behind him and he'd be drifting back into midfield.

Horses his age can still be champion, of course, but it's rare. In the last 22 years, only Hurricane Fly has won the Champion Hurdle as a nine-year-old.

Over the previous decades, you had to be properly famous to wear the crown at nine or older. Royal Gait, Sea Pigeon, Hatton's Grace . . . and Rooster Booster.

Maybe that last one needs a little explaining. I'm thinking it wasn't a strong year. Otherwise, you don't win the Champion Hurdle as an old man unless you're an equine God.

Constitution Hill is widely regarded as a God, of course, and I wouldn't disagree. But he was brought low in the spring and, at his age, I think it's asking a lot to expect him to shake it off and be just like he used to be.

Nicky Henderson: "I've never seen him move better"Credit: Edward Whitaker (racingpost.com/photos)

Nicky Henderson was full of reassuring insights in Sunday's Racing Post. "I've never seen him move better," he told Peter Thomas. 

"When I look at him, I think he's suddenly developed quality. He never had quality, he was just a square block, but he seems to have lengthened somehow and it's great to watch.

"Looking at him in his box, I think he's a completely different horse to last year. That might be crazy. How can he be?  But he is. Different, but ready to go down the same old road."

But there is also an acknowledgement that some work needs to be done on Constitution Hill's jumping. Henderson said: "I think what he's doing in his races is coming to a hurdle two or three lengths behind them and getting 'half-lengthed' – the horse in front of him comes up, he says, 'Whoopee', and then realises he's nowhere near it, and it's horrendous.

"He's got to get the hang of these white hurdles we use now. I'm not convinced they're the right thing and Nico [de Boinville] is not a great fan of them, but they're what we've got over here and he has to get used to them."

So there are two possibilities, jumping-wise. Either Constitution Hill will be as slick as he ever was, in which case his jumping will keep him in contention but there will always be that risk of meeting one wrong. 

Nicky Henderson and Constitution Hill in relaxed mood at Seven BarrowsCredit: Edward Whitaker

Or else (which I think is more likely) those bad experiences in the spring will still be somewhere in his head and we'll see occasional moments of hesitancy, like in the early stages at Punchestown. And that really would be expensive, in terms of his ability to win top-class races.

I'm sure he's showing all the right signs at home but it's valid, at this stage, to question what he'll do on a racecourse. According to Racing Post Ratings, his peak performance was in the 2023 Champion Hurdle, now two and a half years ago. We've only seen him a handful of times over the last two seasons but he hasn't run within a stone of that peak rating in any of those races. 

So it's just not fair or realistic to expect to see the best version of Constitution Hill when he lines up in the Fighting Fifth at Newcastle a on Saturday week. He hasn't been that for a while and he wouldn't be that, even if everything had gone perfectly in the spring.

It will be great to see him back on a racecourse. But he's at the stage now where every win has to be properly celebrated because it will have been achieved against the odds. Or, as Sick Boy would say, each win is a blip on an otherwise uninterrupted downward trajectory.

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