Will a low draw be key to Spring Cup success again or has the market got it right?

A low draw has been key to winning this big-field mile handicap in recent years. Nine of the last ten winners were drawn no higher than 12 and the last four runnings went to horses from stalls three, two, five and four. It seems the lower the draw, the better the chance.

However, the market doesn’t seem to think the draw will make a huge difference as Lattam (stall 16), Raadobarg (14) and Godwinson (12) are among the favourites in double-figure stalls. So can any of them defy the recent trend towards lower numbers?

These easy conditions will be ideal for soft-ground specialist Lattam, who finished second in the Lincoln at Doncaster last month. Three of the last ten winners contested that race en route here, although none had performed as well as Lattam, who is up 3lb following that run.

That might anchor him, so what about the Irish Lincolnshire? You have to go back to 2016 and Gabrial’s Kaka’s second win in the race, when the Spring Cup was rearranged at Chelmsford, to find the last winner who ran there and Raadobarg comes here after his third at the Curragh last time.

Gabriel’s Kaka had also finished third at the Curragh, so there are similarities, but a 2lb rise in the weights will make life more difficult for George Boughey’s runner, who will be ridden by William Buick.

The jockey booking that catches the eye the most is Jamie Spencer on board the Charlie Hills-trained Racingbreaks Ryder. Spencer has ridden for Hills only 22 times over the last five seasons, for three winners, and does particularly well in big-field mile handicaps like this.

Racingbreaks Ryder loves soft ground and is only 1lb higher than when completing a hat-trick around this time last year. He also has a good draw in single figures from stall nine.
Race analysis by Graeme Rodway

RP Recommends: how to bet on the Spring Cup

By Tom Park, audience editor

The Spring Cup is the betting highlight on Newbury's card and this is as competitive as it gets.

Taking advantage of the enhanced place terms is a no-brainer and Sky Bet once again come out on top with seven places on offer. Paddy Power go six and the rest of the main firms are five, which highlights just what a good offer it is.

I am hoping the gelding operation helps Terwada to settle better in his races as he can prove better than his mark if he does.

RP Recommends: Sky Bet

What they say

George Boughey, trainer of Raadobarg
He ran into two well-handicapped horses when third in the Irish Lincoln on his reappearance and has improved from that. He’s hard to win with but he’ll like the ground.

Oliver Cole, joint-trainer of Thunder Ball
He was in need of the run when seventh in the Lincoln but did well all things considered. He has worked nicely since then.

Richard Hannon, trainer of Sierra Blanca and Talis Evolvere
Sierra Blanca has been with us about two months and we’re still learning about him, but I like what I see. He’s won on heavy, so won’t mind the soft ground. Talis Evolvere showed a great attitude to win at Newcastle on All-Weather finals day and is 5lb higher here. The drop in trip suited him well that day and I think a mile is his optimum, so he has plenty of ticks in the right boxes.

Julie Camacho, trainer of Lattam
He’s come out of his second in the Lincoln in good shape but we just hope the ground doesn’t dry out too much. It’s a bit of a lottery but hopefully he can be in the mix again.

Richard Spencer, trainer of Revich
He finished third in the race last year and hopefully can be in the mix again. He hated the ground on his comeback at Doncaster and this surface should be better for him. We're claiming 5lb off him.

James Horton, trainer of Navagio
He had a fairly luckless run compared to the first two when third in the Lincoln and with a better passage he'd have gone close to being runner-up. He’s trained well since, will like the ground and Richard Kingscote knows him well.

Harry Eustace, trainer of Bill Silvers
This has been the plan all along with him but we just hope the ground doesn’t dry out too much. He’s unexposed and one to look forward to this year but I don’t know about the draw in 18.

Cosmo Charlton, racing manager to Hambleton Racing, owners of Noble Order
We got him off Godolphin and he has needed a bit of time as he's a huge horse. He got the job done first time at Newcastle for us and Archie Watson has been thrilled with him since.

William Haggas, trainer of Godwinson
He’s a bit inexperienced for a race like this as he’s only had three runs and hopefully it’s not a step too far too soon. We see him as a mile-and-a-quarter horse going forward but we need to get him started off.

Gemma Tutty, trainer of Look Back Smiling
He won the Spring Mile at Doncaster on similar ground and we're hopeful of another good run. The yard is in good form and he enjoys big-field races like this.

David Simcock, trainer of City Of York  
Soft ground and long, straight tracks are his thing and he had a decent pipe-opener the other day. The unknown is the draw in stall three.
Reporting by David Milnes

Read our Saturday previews: 

1.50 Ayr: Sharjah leads the Willie Mullins charge as Grade 1-winning veteran tackles competitive Scottish Champion Chase 

2.05 Newbury: 1,000 Guineas clues on offer as Gosdens clash with speedy Relief Rally in Group 3 Fred Darling 

2.25 Ayr: 'The ground should be perfect and he has no excuses' - analysis and quotes for a quality Scottish Champion Hurdle 

2.40 Newbury: Can Zoum Zoum get Ralph Beckett's big season off to a fast start at Newbury? 

3.35 Ayr: 'I've no doubt he's better than his mark' - top trainers on their leading Scottish Grand National hopes 

3.55 Curragh: Derby third White Birch and Spanish footballer's big hope clash in intriguing Alleged Stakes 

Ayr has never seen anything like it as Willie Mullins brings huge team in search of a first success  

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