Simon Giles: Postecoglou project has high ceiling but inefficiency could bring it crashing down
Racing Post football analyst Simon Giles assesses the breathtaking highs and dismal lows of Ange Postecoglou's time as Tottenham manager
What exactly are Ange Postecoglou's Tottenham? At the moment, they are a desperate mess. At their best, however, they have been irresistible.
Polarising results mean the debate about Postecoglou's long- and short-term suitability for the role provokes extreme viewpoints.
By highlighting certain matches, or slicing Tottenham's data in different ways, it is possible to make a plausible case either for or against Big Ange.
The recent evidence means the 'Ange out!' crowd holds sway. A run of one win in ten Premier League games has dropped Spurs from sixth to 15th in the table, with their lowest points tally after 22 games since 2008-09.
The overall numbers since the Australian gaffer arrived at the start of last season rank Tottenham seventh for points won – 1.5 points per game is the equivalent to a 57-point season – and they rank the same in underlying numbers, with the attack outperforming the defence to a large extent.
Those numbers are respectable for what was initially seen as a 'project' after generational talent Harry Kane was sold to Bayern Munich and Spurs went from having the third-oldest squad in the division to the fourth-youngest this term.
The problem with judging Postecoglou's side based on averages, however, is that their 'average' performance is seen more rarely than that of other sides as there has been much more volatility on display.
He has managed 60 league matches and the accompanying table breaks those down into ten-game samples:
Postecoglou's critics may point out that his red-hot start is doing a lot of heavy lifting and that the most recent stretch has been comfortably the worst, perhaps a sign that opponents have figured out how to exploit the flaws in his system.
But it has not been a gradual descent and there have been several fluctuations between Tottenham looking like legitimate contenders for Champions League qualification and resembling a bottom-half side.
A quick summary of this season would be that Tottenham's performances and data were strong at the start. Their failure to take early chances in games against Leicester and Newcastle meant they did not get as many points as they perhaps deserved.
A middling period followed, when the demands of Europa League participation meant that performances and results became inconsistent.
Finally, there has been the dreadful recent run during which the strain on the squad has created an injury crisis, leading to a level of points and underlying numbers that is among the worst in the division.
If there is one word to describe Tottenham, it is 'inefficient'. They are inefficient at turning the second-most goals in the league into points.
Their good output is crammed into a couple of their best performances while the flaws and bad moments are more evenly distributed.
They have scored three or more goals in nine of their 22 matches – two more than any other side – and six of their seven wins have been by at least three-goal margins, again, two more than anyone else.
The flip side is that they have suffered 11 defeats by a one-goal margin. That is the most in the division – two more than next-highest Southampton, followed by a huge drop-off to the next group of teams who have suffered only five such losses.
To have 24 points and be 15th with a goal difference of plus ten is an incredible achievement. Since 2017-18, the four other clubs with the same goal difference at this stage of the season all had between 35 and 39 points.
As well as inefficiency, there is some negative variance but also quite a bit of bad game management and sub-optimal squad usage, both of which are within the manager's control.
Last weekend's 3-2 loss to Everton goes down as another single-goal defeat but it was a flattering scoreline as Spurs were 3-0 down at half-time, having made the shot-shy Toffees look like an offensive juggernaut.
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Postecoglou's unwillingness to deviate from his preferred tactics has left him open to criticism but Tottenham switched to a back three for the game at Goodison Park.
It is worth pointing out, though, that their desperate injury situation has necessitated recent tweaks to the system.
According to the Premierinjuries website, nine outfield players and two goalkeepers were sidelined for Tottenham last weekend and they are pretty much at the point where a team made up of unavailable players is stronger than the one they are fielding.
There has been some misfortune in that department and our table shows how injuries, as well as fixture difficulty, correlate strongly with Tottenham's bad spells.
But Postecoglou's playing style demands lots of high-intensity running, allowing fewer spells of rest by keeping the ball patiently, which makes his players more prone to injury. They had a similar crisis last season even without the demands of playing in Europe.
Only Leicester and Southampton have picked up fewer points than Spurs over the last ten games and only those two, plus Ipswich, are getting outcreated to a greater extent based on underlying data.
Tottenham's usual strength in attack has dropped to middling levels. Even those numbers are inflated by late 'window-dressing' goals in defeats against Liverpool, Everton and Chelsea while the injury-ravaged defence has nosedived.
Spurs' recent form is undeniably woeful but how low could they actually go?
Rival fans may enjoy talking about a potential relegation scrap but, even if Tottenham's current slump continues, 0.5 points per game would get them to 32 points.
That tally, along with their strong goal difference, should be enough to avoid relegation, albeit too close for comfort as 18th-placed Ipswich are currently at 28-point pace.
It is more likely that things will pick up a bit if and when first-team regulars return from injury. Tottenham host a Leicester side even deeper in the mire this weekend and they face struggling Ipswich in a couple of weeks' time.
If Spurs can get points on the board quickly it will lift the mood at the club and allow them to concentrate on maximising their runs in cup competitions.
On the other hand, the Leicester game comes after a European awayday and they have already lost at home to Ipswich on a similar turnaround in November.
If there is a positive on the horizon then it is that first-choice centre-backs Micky van de Ven and Cristian Romero are reportedly close to returning to action.
In the 36 games that they have started together, Spurs picked up points at what would be 67-point pace over a full season. In the 24 games without at least one of Van de Ven and Romero, they track as a 43-point side, conceding 0.43 goals per game more.
It should, however, be noted that the centre-backs both started the final nine matches of last season, during which time Tottenham collected only ten points.
Unless the mood at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium really turns sour, it is hard to see how a caretaker boss would benefit from much of a bounce, particularly given the injury problems.
The longer-term question for Spurs fans to consider is are the glimpses of Postecoglou's plans working enough to outweigh the frustration of seeing the same flaws repeatedly highlighted?
He has arguably raised the ceiling higher than any recent Spurs boss bar Mauricio Pochettino, but the floor, as we are currently seeing, is lower.
When Spurs have the legs and intensity to overwhelm opponents, they have produced breath-taking highs but will their approach ever be consistently sustainable given the cramped footballing calendar?
To have a chance of success, it surely requires a squad of 20-plus players all operating at roughly the same level.
Recent transfer windows have seen the arrival of talented teenagers such as Archie Gray and Lucas Bergvall, which suggests there is some long-term project-building at the club.
However, Postecoglou could do with signing some immediate-impact players if he is to save this season, probably through success in the cups, and survive to continue the next stage of the project.
Read more from Simon Giles . . .
Potter's West Ham revolution requires patience but Everton need instant impact from Moyes
Defensive strength boosts highflying Forest's chances of FA Cup glory
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