'He's got some talent' - can the in-form Roger Varian score with well-bred and unexposed Al Farabi?

The all-weather being what it is, mid-level handicaps like this one attract a higher concentration of progressive sorts than you would see in the summer. Rarely is there such a neat example as this. Virtually all the runners have increased their BHA mark since the autumn, with the exceptions being Johnny James and Eden Storm. They were second and first on their most recent runs.

The market is naturally going to find horses with good recent form and not a lot of baggage looking further back. Least exposed of the lot is Al Farabi. He is trained by Roger Varian, who has been ticking over nicely on the all-weather. He has had 20 runners since Christmas, way below his usual rate, but their record takes the eye. They include five winners, five seconds, four thirds and three fourths. In other words, only three have failed to make the frame.

Subtle differences are well worth examining on the all-weather. Al Farabi's handicap debut came at a straight, stiff Newcastle and fifth-placed The Turpinator has also been campaigned there this winter.

Visibility is the course expert, with 33 runs and five wins here. He has been in good form, but it is understandable others are being given more respect.

The race here on December 9 in which Follow Your Heart was first and Johnny James second could be one to pore over. The winner has run twice since, with form figures of 24 hiding the fact he has continued to improve, albeit slowly. Johnny James was still free enough, having looked a short-runner in sprint maidens in the summer. If he continues to mature mentally, he could end up in higher grades this winter.
Race analysis by Keith Melrose

Varian hopeful of big run from unexposed Al Farabi

A son of Kingman out of a dam who finished second in a Group 1 is a bit of a rare find in a 0-85 handicap at Wolverhampton and trainer Roger Varian hopes Al Farabi's class will show.

The four-year-old has been frustrating since making a winning stable debut at Kempton, losing at short odds at Southwell in November and filling the runner-up spot again despite travelling much the best on his handicap debut at Newcastle.

Varian, who is 2-3 at Wolverhampton this year, believes immaturity could be blamed for his last effort and hopes a change of track will suit Jack Mitchell's mount.

He said: "Al Farabi has been a bit of a baby really but he's got some talent. He hasn't run badly the last twice albeit he hasn't won. The seven furlongs around the bend and the easy nature of Wolverhampton will suit him and he's drawn quite kindly so he'd go there with a chance.

"He travelled well last time. He had an aversion to the starting stalls as a young horse so he doesn't like being in there, he was a bit quick out at Newcastle and took half a furlong to settle but when he got cover he switched off. It might be that the first 100 yards took away his final 100 yards."

What they say

Mark Loughnane, trainer of Follow Your Heart
We're down two grades and carrying top weight here but he has a good draw and should run a good race. He's in great order and was unlucky not to win on his last run at this track.

Mark Loughnane: runs Follow Your Heart at Wolverhampton on FridayCredit: Alan Crowhurst (Getty Images)

Mick Appleby, trainer of Johnny James
We've freshened him up and he's in good form. I hope he has a chance. There's still some improvement in him.

Grant Tuer, trainer of The Turpinator
He ran very well in a decent race at Newcastle on New Year's Day and the return to seven furlongs should suit. Wolverhampton is a bit of an unknown for him but it should suit him as he jumps and travels well. He should be competitive.

Marco Botti, trainer of Eden Storm
He always runs well at Wolverhampton and we're hopeful of a big run. This looks a tougher race than last time but he's in good form.
Reporting by James Stevens

Do you want £700+ of free bets? Racing Post have got the best offers, all in one place. Visit racingpost.com/freebets to find out more.