Can Royal Champion display his Group 1 credentials in another strong version of the Winter Derby?

The Winter Derby just gets better and better every year, and this season’s running, which will be the second since it was switched from Lingfield to Southwell, promises to be the best yet.

The quality of the entries is in line with a general increase in the standard of the race over the last ten years, and the three-year rolling average of the Racing Post Rating for each winner illustrates that. There has been a jump of 4lb, from a mean winning RPR of 113 to 117 now.

The race has long held Group 3 status, but the average Group 2 winner in recent years has achieved an RPR of 116, while an RPR of 117 would win 76 per cent of all Class 1 races for three-year-olds and up in Britain. The Winter Derby is therefore a strong race for the grade.

The 2022 winner Alenquer and 2023 hero Lord North both went on to win Group 1s later in the same season and connections of Royal Champion will be hoping that he can follow suit.

Royal Champion: won the 2023 Wolferton Stakes at Royal AscotCredit: Edward Whitaker

Royal Champion is back in Britain after an unsuccessful spell in Australia with Anthony and Sam Freedman, but he has competed at Group 1 level on two of his last five starts and was second to Nations Pride in the 2023 Canadian International at Woodbine for Roger Varian.

He achieved an RPR of 119 that day, and a reproduction of that form here would give further credence to the argument that the Winter Derby is deserving of being upgraded to a Group 2.

Royal Champion has yet to hit an RPR of 119 for new trainer Karl Burke, but he won his only start for the yard in Listed company at Lingfield in December and got a figure of 116.

That puts him only 1lb ahead of Military Academy, who is trained by John and Thady Gosden. The yard is starting to come out of a winter cold spell, and their runner sports first-time cheekpieces and has been gelded since his Listed win at Kempton in November.

That doesn’t scream Group 1 winner in waiting, though, and Persica holds the same highest RPR of 115. He achieved that when beating Eydon by half a length in the Doonside Cup at Ayr, but Champagne Prince beat Eydon by further over course and distance last time and looks like the rapid improver in the race. He could spring a surprise under William Buick.
Analysis by Graeme Rodway

What they say

Jane Chapple-Hyam, trainer of Claymore and Champagne Prince
I’ve been getting Claymore’s confidence back by running in small fields and I think he goes into this race better than his last. That said, this is a better race and it’s going to be hard for him. I am quietly confident of him finishing in the top four. Champagne Prince has done nothing wrong all winter and goes well at this track. I think he has a real live chance.

Martin Dunne, trainer of Pleasant Man
The owners have wanted a horse to run in the race. He’s had one blow during the week since he’s arrived with us. Realistically, it’s going to be tough for him, but if he runs to his best and a couple underperform then he can come away with some nice prize-money.

Karl Burke, trainer of Royal Champion
He's in great form and came out of his first run for us at Lingfield very well. There's stamina in his pedigree, and he was very strong through the line last time. He runs well fresh and we're hoping for a big run.

Karl Burke: runs Royal Champion in the Winter DerbyCredit: Patrick McCann

John Gosden, joint-trainer of Military Academy
This looks the right race to start him off in. He'll definitely improve for the race, and we are using this as a springboard to the King's Cup in Bahrain next month.
Reporting by Peter Scargill

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