A cohort's poor record in the Coral Charge unearthed - plus the inside word from the trainers

The King Charles III Stakes at Royal Ascot laid bare the limitations of Europe's five-furlong sprinters. It is thus understandable that in races like the Coral Charge special preference would be given to potential over those who have been around a while.

Historically, this race has not been all that friendly to three-year-olds. Yes, there have been four three-year-old winners in the last decade. But, as the accompanying graphic shows, they have performed only slightly better than you would expect if all runners had an equal chance (3.54 winners expected). Once you factor in starting prices, four is a below-expectations return. The picture is even worse if you consider placed horses. The bar chart again tells the story here.

That does not speak very well of the four three-year-olds in this race, of whom Holyroodhouse winner Adrestia is the most fancied. True to the trend, her price does not reflect her chance on form. There is also a sense that Ascot was the big day, as she had made her reappearance 11 days earlier. This is not to write her off, as her potential is clear and the draw has been kind.

The point is that you can back a horse with loads more form of the required standard, plenty of it over stiff five-furlong courses, without paying much of a premium. That horse is Kerdos. He won last year's Temple Stakes and, after a spin over six furlongs in the Duke Of York, fared best of those on his side when fifth in the King Charles III. 

Kerdos was underestimated that day at 66-1 and has been again here. He should be favourite ahead of She's Quality, a four-year-old who also brings potential given her lack of exposure in top sprints. A first Group-race win is surely just a matter of time for She's Quality, although pitching her as the answer to her division's woes is asking a lot. 

Race analysis by Keith Melrose

What They Say

Jonny Portman, trainer of Rumstar
He's a hard horse to place and was done no favours by the draw at Royal Ascot. We’re not sure Sandown is his track but we’re giving it a go.

Clive Cox, trainer of Kerdos
Christophe Soumillon got on well with him at Royal Ascot last time and we're delighted that he can take the ride again. Any rain would help.

John Ryan, trainer of Manaccan
He’d been off for two years before he ran in the King Charles III Stakes at Royal Ascot, so was entitled to need that, and he's come out of that in good shape. This is a drop in class and he’ll like the ground.

George Scott, trainer of West Acre
We feel that he's improved since his run at Royal Ascot; he's taken some time to acclimatise after racing in Dubai over the winter. He’s been done no favours by the draw (ten) but we’ll get on with it.

Ed Walker, trainer of Balmoral Lady 
She ran a big race at Ascot and seems to have come out of it very well. She's got another disastrous draw [11], but it looks a good spot for her. She's a Listed winner, so this is an obvious target.

Jack Davison, trainer of She's Quality
It was a great run at Haydock; we were a bit gutted to get chinned but the draw probably cost us. I hold her in the highest regard and she's 100 per cent better now as a four-year-old. I think Sandown will suit her as a nice, flat, fast track, and she needs quick ground, while the pace of British sprints sees her to better effect.

Ed Crisford, joint-trainer of Adrestia
It’s a step up in class from her win in the Palace of Holyroodhouse Stakes at Royal Ascot, but we expect the track to suit her. She's come out of Ascot in great shape and should like the ground.  

Philip Robinson, racing manager to Jaber Abdullah, owner of Queen All Star
She’s a course-and-distance winner but at a lesser level – this is a big jump in class.
Reporting by David Milnes

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