It's been a topsy-turvy season with outsiders winning the Group races and favourites taking the big handicaps - and I think I know why

The best races should be won by the best horses. Handicaps can, and often are, won by horses who get lucky on the day and are decided by factors other than ability. By their very nature there should be a lot of chaos in the handicap system and much less in the Group races.
However, this season it seems to be that quite often the best races are being fluked by horses who wouldn't be considered anywhere near good enough before the race, while the biggest handicaps are going to horses backed off the boards. It's like the world of racing has been turned upside down.
Think back to Royal Ascot. The well-backed favourite My Cloud landed the Hunt Cup, Never So Brave hacked up in the Buckingham Place after being backed off the boards and French Master, Merchant and Ethical Diamond were also winning short-priced favourites in handicaps. In contrast there were big-priced winners of the Queen Anne, King Charles III, Commonwealth Cup, Coronation Stakes and Jersey Stakes. Since then we've seen a 66-1 shot win the July Cup, last Saturday's Group 3 Hackwood Stakes went to a 33-1 shot, while in contrast the Bunbury Cup, one of the biggest handicaps of the summer, went to 6-5 chance More Thunder.
Read the full story
Read award-winning journalism from the best writers in racing, with exclusive news, interviews, columns, investigations, stable tours and subscriber-only emails.
Subscribe to unlock
- Racing Post digital newspaper (worth over £100 per month)
- Award-winning journalism from the best writers in racing
- Expert tips from the likes of Tom Segal and Paul Kealy
- Replays and results analysis from all UK and Irish racecourses
- Form study tools including the Pro Card and Horse Tracker
- Extensive archive of statistics covering horses, trainers, jockeys, owners, pedigree and sales data
Already a subscriber?Log in
Published on inTom Segal
Last updated
- These novice chasers had me purring last week and look big players against the Willie Mullins Cheltenham hotpots
- Why we shouldn't always fall for horses who appear to be natural jumpers
- Badger Beers proves how front-runners are favoured in the big chases - remember where you read it first!
- Here is the one golden rule I'm aiming to follow in the big chases this jumps season
- As the Champion Stakes demonstrated, the cream rises to the top when pacemakers are involved
- These novice chasers had me purring last week and look big players against the Willie Mullins Cheltenham hotpots
- Why we shouldn't always fall for horses who appear to be natural jumpers
- Badger Beers proves how front-runners are favoured in the big chases - remember where you read it first!
- Here is the one golden rule I'm aiming to follow in the big chases this jumps season
- As the Champion Stakes demonstrated, the cream rises to the top when pacemakers are involved
