A 5-1 winner at Carlisle is the same as a 5-1 winner at Cheltenham - there's still plenty to enjoy before the festival

Read the thoughts of Maddy Playle every week in the Racing Post Weekender. The Weekender is out every Wednesday and is available in all good newsagents, or you can subscribe here.

While most punters are beginning to eye up the Cheltenham Festival, there is still high-quality, competitive action to get stuck into at the weekends.

This Saturday at Kempton and Newcastle is no exception, and Sandown’s meeting on the eve of the festival is always one of my favourites, with hotly contested handicaps like the EBF Final and Imperial Cup.

There are a handful of those races this weekend, which regularly produce superior betting opportunities to Graded races, and sometimes it seems as if people forget a 5-1 winner at Carlisle is the same as a 5-1 winner at Cheltenham.

Betting is all about measuring risk against reward and both selections this week are double-figure prices, but they are both likely to run and there is often value to be found in Monday’s markets, when this column is written.

O’Connell is a worthy favourite for the in-form Joel Parkinson and Sue Smith team in the Virgin Bet Eider Handicap Chase, but the 25-1 shot Chemical Warfare has caught my eye.

He has risen a whopping 41lb in the handicap since joining David Pipe in April. He’s by a quirky sire in Fame And Glory and I suspect there could be more to come, despite the fact he was beaten 35 lengths last time.

He was making headway when he made a bad mistake at the fifth-last at Doncaster and it took him out of his rhythm. Had he not made that error he would surely have matched the close second Bodhisattva, who reopposes on 2lb worse terms.

Momentum is everything with the strong-travelling Chemical Warfare, who was a smooth winner over just shy of three miles at Newcastle before his Doncaster run, recording a Racing Post Rating of 116. He came off the bridle only after the last fence.

That took his Newcastle record to P2111 and there is every reason to think he can defy a 6lb higher mark if he is on a going day as he is still only eight.

His regular rider Jack Tudor can fill him with confidence off a low weight and a strong late run looks likely.

Bowtogreatness: one to watch for Ben PaulingCredit: Edward Whitaker (racingpost.com/photos)

In the feature Ladbrokes Trophy Handicap Chase at Kempton, it might be worth chancing another slightly risky proposition in Bowtogreatness.

The highly regarded nine-year-old was third in the race off 2lb higher last year and at one stage looked as if he was going to win before a sticky jump at the second-last did him no favours.

He showed what he was capable of with an impressive victory at Newbury in November, when recording a Racing Post Rating of 140 in beating Destroytheevidence. That performance came off just a 2lb lower mark than he finds himself on now.

Bowtogreatness ran far too free to do himself justice at Newcastle on his next start and was pulled up, but ran a big race at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day, when he weakened – albeit dramatically – only after the last fence. He was dropped 1lb for that, but that course plainly isn’t his track, whereas we know Kempton is.

Last time in the Great Yorkshire Handicap Chase at Doncaster he was making smart progress from the rear when brought down in a horrible incident at the fourth-last. He looked likely to go close in first-time cheekpieces then, so has to be respected off the same mark now.

Horses who have run well in this race before often go on to do so again – think Theatre Guide, Double Shuffle and Mister Malarky – and hopefully Bowtogreatness can emulate the 2023 winner Our Power, who finished third to Cap Du Nord the year before getting his head in front.

O’Sullivan in our thoughts

It was utterly heartbreaking to learn of the death of Michael O’Sullivan on Sunday morning.

I did not have the pleasure of knowing him, but I was very aware of his skill as a jockey and have learned of his other great qualities via a wave of touching tributes.

It seems hard to believe such a talented young man could be lost in a fleetingly freakish moment at the tender age of 24, and the racing community will feel his absence for a long time.

In truth, it seems futile to focus on racing at a time like this, for all it was a sport Michael loved. My thoughts are with his family, friends and colleagues.

Read more from The Weekender:

Stamina and class are the crucial factors in the modern-day Grand National, not jumping ability  

'He should be a clear jolly' - Paul Kealy's ante-post weekend tips include a 2pts fancy  

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