Argh, where was the rain? A Derby disaster after downpours fail to materialise

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We punters have to put up with a lot of frustrations but regularly at or near the top of my list is the weather. If your forecast is wrong, you're going to get the race wrong, and I can't be the only one feeling wrong-footed by the elements in the wake of Saturday's Betfred Derby.

A yellow warning for rain was in place for the Epsom area - but when would it arrive? Some time around mid-afternoon, that was the expectation when we were all firming up our choices on Friday. In other words, it should have been just in time to affect the going ahead of the big race at 3.30pm.

I knew I was in trouble by 3pm when nary an umbrella was to be seen during the Derby build-up on Racing TV. The race was run on ground officially described as good.

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Then the useless rain wandered into view, two hours late and a dollar short. In the last two races on the card, the fields crossed over to the stands' side in search of less rain-sodden terrain.

What result would we have seen if the Derby had a tea-time slot around 5pm? The runners may not have crossed over from the far side, because that just doesn't seem to happen in the Derby, but surely there would have been some impact on the finishing order.

I'd say Lambourn would probably have got caught, because making all the running is harder to do when there's dig in the ground. Naturally, Wayne Lordan would have taken them along at a steadier pace, or would have tried to do so, but it's still a hard trick to turn.

New Ground, the strong finisher, would have benefited. Coming from as far back as he did was never going to work unless the ones in front got tired. Because the going remained good, they didn't tire fast enough. On a mix of soft and good to soft, maybe he'd have got there.

But I would say that, wouldn't I, having given him a big mention in this space on Friday. "He'll be coming from the back and he might never be seen with a winning chance but I think he'll stay on stoutly and could make the frame," that was the Front Runner's verdict.

Ugh, how frustrating, to be done by a fast-diminishing neck for third place. Rain, where were you?

Hopefully your perspicacity was more fruitful than mine and you enjoyed a fun and profitable Derby. We have now reached Musing Monday, a time for wondering what our new stars and our fragile flops will do for the rest of the year.

Jan Brueghel beats Calandagan in the Coronation CupCredit: Edward Whitaker (racingpost.com/photos)

It's a great time of year for building the reputation of middle-distance horses and getting excited for what's ahead. Jan Brueghel and Calandagan had an absorbing clash in the Coronation Cup, while Minnie Hauk and Whirl did the same in the Oaks. 

Lambourn showed his toughness in the Derby, while Camille Pissarro won with a certain elan in the French Derby six days earlier. The question I always ask at this time of year is: how many times can we hope to see these horses take each other on before the end of the year?

Sure, they can't be expected to run every fortnight but it's reasonable to hope we could see these horses taking each other on in races like the Irish Derby, the Eclipse, the King George, the Juddmonte International, the Leger, the Irish Champion, the Arc, the Champion Stakes or the Breeders' Cup Turf, just to name the obvious ones.

Anyway, when I picked six exciting horses from the equivalent weekends in 2022 and 2023, we discovered there were only three or four races in the rest of those seasons where any two from the list raced against each other. It was a bit disappointing.

Last year, the six on our post Epsom / Chantilly list were: City Of Troy and Ambiente Friendly (first and second in the Derby), Ezeliya (Oaks heroine), Luxembourg and Hamish (Coronation Cup duellists) and Look De Vega (French Derby winner).

Depressingly, there were just two races in the rest of 2024 which featured more than one of those horses. They were the Juddmonte International (1st City Of Troy, 10th Ambiente Friendly) and the Prix Niel (3rd Look De Vega, 5th Ambiente Friendly).

Ezeliya was retired after a setback, she never raced again after her Oaks. Look De Vega ran only twice before disappearing off to stud.

Luxembourg did his bit, following an ambitious campaign of Group 1s in four different countries over the rest of 2024. Hamish's connections were more circumspect; he wasn't tried in top-class company after the Coronation Cup and ended his year with an easy Listed win.

That's Flat racing for you. It's a game that teaches you, again and again, not to bother hoping that A will take on B some day soon. There are too many alternative options, too many things that can go wrong and not enough incentives to make it happen.

The way to enjoy this game is to take it as it comes and be glad whenever an exciting clash actually takes place. It works for me but it can make the sport a hard sell when compared to football, where all the big names in each league have to play each other at least twice a year, the dates known well in advance.

Looking at this year's list of exciting horses, there is a pretty obvious problem for those of us who would like to see them racing each other repeatedly. Five of the six are stablemates at Ballydoyle.

That doesn't have to be the end of the world, because we know Aidan O'Brien is comfortable running more than one horse in the best races. But it was a downer to read his response on Sunday to a question about whether Jan Brueghel would go for the King George. 

"It depends, really, on Los Angeles. If he goes to the King George, then Jan Brueghel won't go there . . . Los Angeles is the boss at the moment and they will have to follow where he's not going."

O'Brien also has to find ways forward for Lambourn, Camille Pissarro, Minnie Hauk and Whirl. Are there enough different routes to November for all these stars?

Read these next:

Coral hit with six-figure payout after ITV's Kevin Blake tips whopping Derby tricast 

Derby hero Lambourn a timely reminder of what his bargain sire Australia can do 

Aidan O'Brien says Derby double is on the cards for Epsom hero Lambourn as he bids to join illustrious group 

The Front Runner is our unmissable email newsletter available exclusively to Racing Post+ subscribers. Chris Cook provides his take on the day's biggest stories and tips for the upcoming racing every morning from Monday to Friday. Not a Racing Post+ subscriber? Join today and also receive our Ultimate Daily emails plus our full range of fantastic website and newspaper content.