Will it be an Al Qareem hat-trick or is Hamish ready to thwart him in a battle of two old warriors in Cumberland Lodge?

What a battle we have in store between two warriors in Hamish and Al Qareem, who have combined for an impressive 25 wins and are clear on BHA figures.

Hamish is actually clear of Al Qareem, with 3lb separating them, but there is a further 4lb to the remainder of the field and everything else will need to improve significantly to worry them.

Not only is Hamish rated higher, but he also receives 3lb in weight from his biggest rival and connections will be hoping that the forecast rain from Storm Amy arrives in time. Hamish is simply a far better horse on testing ground than he is on anything quicker, so that will be key.

Al Qareem also handles cut in the ground well and won this race on soft going last season. That made it back-to-back wins and he is on a hat-trick, but Hamish was the horse who landed the contest the year before Al Qareem’s two victories and he hasn’t run in the event since.

Al Qareem wins last year's Cumberland Lodge at AscotCredit: Alan Crowhurst (Getty Images)

A fantastic race is in the offing, but on paper there is only one winner and that is Hamish.

Racing isn’t run on paper, though, and there is always the possibility that something could improve beyond anyone’s expectations. The three-year-olds Sir Dinadan and Tenability are most likely and remember Sir Dinadan was beaten less than four lengths in the Irish Derby.

He is the classier of the two youngsters, but Tenability is going for five wins on the spin and three of them have come over course and distance on ground from good to firm to soft. It’s anyone’s guess where his ceiling lies, but Cieren Fallon rode him last time and is now on Hamish.
Analysis by Graeme Rodway

'Hamish needs rain and this is his sort of race'

William Haggas holds a strong hand with 40 per cent of the five-runner field, but will it be his immensely popular veteran Hamish who raises the roof or rapidly progressive stablemate Tenability?

Mud-lover Hamish comes into the Cumberland Lodge on the back of two wins this season at Goodwood and Chester, his only two starts of a campaign which has largely been dominated by racing on fast ground.

Haggas has resisted the temptation to run Hamish on unsuitable going, and is looking forward to a profitable autumn campaign with him.

Hamish landed this contest in 2022 and Haggas believes it is the right race and the right conditions for the 14-time scorer to excel.

The nine-year-old relishes a small-field battle on soft ground. Nine of his last 11 victories have been achieved in races of nine runners or fewer, and his trainer said: “Hamish needs rain and this is his sort of race.”

The six years younger Tenability chases an impressive five-timer following victories in a Windsor novice and three Ascot handicaps.

William Haggas: runs Hamish and Tenability in the Cumberland LodgeCredit: Edward Whitaker (racingpost.com/photos)

Tenability demonstrated his ability to handle the mud on his latest start at Ascot, and the manner in which he has progressed through the handicapping ranks suggests he will not be out of place in this more exalted company. 

While he will undoubtedly require a career-best performance, everything looks in place for that to happen.

Haggas said: “Tenability is coming out of handicaps. It's probably a tough ask for him, but at least he's a winner at the track. He's an improving three-year-old, but he's taking on a good, strong field.”

What they say

Karl Burke, trainer of Al Qareem
He goes there in great form and loves soft ground so any rain will be a help, especially over this trip. We can be aggressive with him over a mile and a half.

Thady Gosden, joint-trainer of Military Academy
Things haven't gone to plan with him so far this season but he was staying on well when fourth at Chester last time and he won't mind any cut in the ground.
Reporting by Richard Birch

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