'His work suggests he’s on a very competitive mark' - what do the trainers and our experts make of a Hunt Cup conundrum?

My Cloud, The Liffey and Greek Order were already the top three in the Royal Hunt Cup betting before the draw took place. They are unlikely to relinquish their position easily after they drew stalls 32, 31 and 30.

While there is naturally a lot of noise in monster-field handicaps on a straight track, those drawn high over Ascot's straight mile have a measurable advantage. In races with 25 or more runners here this century, horses drawn one to ten have a win-and-place strike-rate of 12.1 per cent. Those drawn 11 to 20 do a little better, at 13.9 per cent. Those drawn in 21 or higher do best with 15.5 per cent making the first four.

The differences may look small, but over a sample of more than 1,600 runners they point towards something solid. Moreover, the three best-performing stalls are 30, 31 and 32.

My Cloud is the one to focus on, as he is the clear Group prospect in the field. He has run five times, all on straight tracks, and has won over this course and distance while shaping like he is made for a big field.

He did so well to win at Newbury last time, when he pulled hard, came from much further back than ideal and still had more in the tank than a winning margin of a head would suggest. The runner-up from that race has won since, while the third has run to a similar level in defeat and the fourth improved to be second at Sandown on Saturday.

Because of the ante-post gamble on The Liffey, and the big players all being drawn near one another, we may avoid much pre-race discussion about My Cloud being the fabled Group horse in a handicap. We should not lose sight of him being potentially just that.
Analysis by Keith Melrose

How will our experts tackle the Hunt Cup conundrum?

'Focus on the four-year-olds'

More often than not you want to be looking for unexposed horses who have yet to blow their handicap marks and still have their best days ahead of them – and that means four-year-olds.

That age group has won 13 of the last 18 runnings, so that's my starting point. It is quite easily the best-represented age group, of course (17 go this time), but there are still routes to profit from when you start ruling some of them out.

For instance, had you backed four-year-olds rated 93-103 who were shorter than 33-1, you'd have backed 12 winners and made an £84 profit to a £1 level stake.

I'm not sure that helps much this year as that gives you nearly all the horses at the top of the betting, but my two against the field are Bullet Point and Fox Legacy.
Paul Kealy

Fox Legacy ridden by Oisin Murphy wins at Newmarket

Fox Legacy: has the right sort of profile for the Hunt CupCredit: John Grossick

'Course form is crucial'

The aim is the same as in every other race and that is to find the quickest horse on the day at the weights. How do you do that?

Many races on Ascot's straight develop in the same way and it is for that reason that it suits a certain type of horse. Course form is therefore just as important, if not more crucial, than anything else and those who have run well here tend to come back and do so again and again.

If you can find the horse with the best course form you won't go too far wrong, but it is not always easy because at least half of the field will probably have run well at the track before. Picking the right line of course form to follow is the key.
Graeme Rodway

'Don't worry about the draw'

The draw will be a priority for many punters playing in Ascot’s major straight-track handicaps with horses splitting into two or even three groups.

However, biases seldom remain for long here and anything draw-related is best left for post-race analysis. Regular bettors in these races will have been hurt by rotten luck in that department. Equally they will have experienced good fortune by coming down on a selection from the right side.

I still like to forecast whether there may be a high concentration of early pace from one particular part of the track, but this can overcomplicate the puzzle. In essence, the same variables apply to finding value bets as anywhere else.
Robbie Wilders

What they say

Charlie Appleby, trainer of Arabian Light
He's run over nine furlongs so far this year, but the drop back to a mile and style of the race might suit. It’s a bit of a cavalry charge and he'll need plenty of luck, but he should have a chance if things go his way.

Adam Ryan, assistant to Kevin Ryan, trainer of Hi Royal and Sisyphean
Both are in great order. Hi Royal had some very high-class form in the past and it was a good effort in the Thirsk Hunt Cup last time, and he should come forward for that. Sisyphean ran a great race at York and this sort of test should suit him down to the ground.

Joseph O'Brien, trainer of Wahdan and The Liffey
Wahdan drops in class and a big-field race like this will suit him well. The Liffey has trained well for this and comes here on the back of a nice reappearance. He'll love the straight track and I'm happy with his draw.

Jamie Osborne, trainer of Epictetus and Sean
Epictetus has a live chance and he's 8lb better off with the favourite. He'll have come forward significantly and I can see him being very competitive. Sean isn't getting any younger and needs a career-best, but he's still capable of that if things fall right.

Michael Bell, trainer of Tony Montana and Greek Order
This is the only race here really for Tony Montana. He’s dropping in trip, but the cheekpieces should sharpen him up and he’s on a workable mark. Greek Order is very interesting. In theory he’s on a good mark as it’s the same as when he was second in the Cambridgeshire two years ago. One bit of work he did recently suggests he’s on a very competitive mark.

Ed Walker, trainer of Popmaster
He's a big price but he's well up to going close off his rating. He's run some big races off higher marks – he was second, beaten a nose, off 106 in the Challenge in 2023 – and is more than capable of a big performance.

William Muir, joint-trainer of Ebt's Guard
He always runs solid races at Ascot. We were only a length and a quarter behind the favourite at Newbury two starts ago and are a fair few pounds better off, but our lad's a much bigger price. He's got every right to be in this.

Simon Crisford, joint-trainer of Magnum Opus
He had a solid winter in Dubai and he's been fresh and well for this since the Lincoln. He should give a good account of himself.

Jack Channon, trainer of Urban Lion
It's a shame in a way we had to go and win at Sandown on Saturday, but it got him a 5lb penalty which he needed to get in. When it's so soon after you don't exactly know, but he seems to have taken it in great order and has his chance.

David O'Meara, trainer of Bopedro
He’s been running well in some big handicaps this year. He found Epsom a little bit sharp last time but is in good form.

Alastair Donald, racing manager to King Power, owners of Fox Legacy
We waited on his mark in the hope he got in so we're glad he did. The conditions and the set-up of the race should suit, and he's improving and unexposed for his age. It's a hard race to win, but he's got a live chance.

Roger Varian, trainer of My Cloud
He's drawn on the stands' side in stall 32, but I don't mind that as it avoids any confusion about where he's going to race. Conditions should be fine and he's working nicely, but it's a big ask for an inexperienced horse.

David Marnane, trainer of Tokenomics
We've had this race in mind for quite a while and got in by the skin of our teeth. He won snugly on his comeback run at Cork, even though he got stopped a couple of times. He's been very progressive for us.
Reporting by Matt Rennie

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