Front-runners who specialise at the distance the obvious place to start in wide-open Topham Chase

The Topham is famous for what it shares with the Grand National, but as a race it is most interesting where it differs. Being 40 per cent shorter is an obvious variance, and that difference manifests in more than just stamina demands.

Two of the three races over the National fences at this meeting, the other being the Foxhunters', are run over this 2m5f trip. Comparing how different run styles fare across the three races very quickly reveals a strong secondary effect in the 2m5f races.

The bias towards prominent racers, pretty much across the board over fences but especially in big handicaps, is much more pronounced in 2m5f races over the National fences in April than in the big one. 

Since 2018, and excluding this year's Foxhunters', ten of the 12 winners of the Topham and Foxhunters' had raced prominently. You would have expected four winners, if all horses are assumed to have the same chance, and 7.5 winners if you allowed for their prices.

This trend extends to placed runners. Prominent racers account for 27 of the 48 placed horses, when you would have expected 16.1 by pure chance of 22.5 from the betting. Horses ridden in midfield or rear failed to meet either set of expected returns.

As can be seen from the graphic, that trend does not exist in the Grand National. The likely reason for this is that, at some point over 4m2f, the pace will slacken and the field will bunch up. That surrenders a lot of the advantage prominent racers have gained. That happens a lot less often over 2m5f.

The most rational approach to betting in the Topham is to give it a few fences. By the time the field is halfway to Becher's Brook, most of the players will have made themselves known. But that is not an option for everyone, so next best is to pick out habitual front-runners who jump well.

Of the seven-strong Willie Mullins challenge, James Du Berlais fits the bill best. But you could have easily guessed that, given he was second in the race last year. Adamantly Chosen, who did not stay in last year's National, is a bigger-priced Mullins hope who may go well.

Others not in Mullins' care who could bounce out include Ginny's Destiny, Eldorado Allen, Gemirande and Western Zephyr. The first three all have questions to answer in terms of their form. Western Zephyr only beat a couple home in the Grand Annual last time, but he had jumped three out in the lead on his first run since December. He is well handicapped on form earlier this season and the booking of Sean Bowen suggests his connections, who won the Red Rum in 2018, have targeted this meeting again.
Race analysis by Keith Melrose

Arizona Cardinal (right) and James Du Berlaid go head-to-head in last year's Topham ChaseCredit: John Grossick

Ciaran Gethings: How to win the Topham Chase

Last year's winning rider on what it takes to conquer the Grand National fences

The dream combo is having a brave enough horse to take the fences on, but then also clever enough to adjust themself and not just go charging at them, which is what I had with Arizona Cardinal last year.

You don't want a horse who's an out-and-out stayer as it is over an intermediate trip, so it's always going to suit those horses who stay well at that distance rather than who stay further. 

Being a quick jumper the way the fences now makes a difference as you are able to flick your way through them and get from A to B quickly. That style of jumping is a big help if you can find a horse like that. 

The only thing I was ever slightly worried about was we didn’t travel great over the first couple of fences and that’s potentially a problem. You want to be able to travel down to the Chair. If you’re not travelling and in a rhythm by the time you get to the water and then go through the Grand National start to face up to those six fences down the side then they come at you very quickly and you’re always on the back foot from then on. 

Looking back on it, I was probably more forward in the race than I had planned to be. I was upsides Paul Townend on James Du Berlais for a lot of the race and we ended up finishing first and second, so it probably isn’t a bad idea to be going forward if you’re in that jumping rhythm. 

The race rides very similarly to the Grand National in terms of its tempo, you just have one circuit less, but it’s all about getting into that early rhythm and position. 

Given all that, Glengouly is the one I like most. His form this year isn’t great, but he showed up well in last year’s Grand National and it looked as though he didn’t stay as he was coming to the end of his tether when he unseated Mikey O’Sullivan. He jumps well and he took to the fences well, so over this shorter trip he can bowl away and he looks a decent price.

What they say

Gordon Elliott, trainer of Ash Tree Meadow, Mars Harper and The Goffer
I could see The Goffer running a huge race on that ground. The soft patches at Cheltenham just caught him out on the cross-country, but he still ran well. This sort of race is made for him. Ash Tree Meadow is classy and will love the ground. I could see him running very well, too. Mars Harper ran some race in the Plate at Cheltenham and if he brings that sort of form here you couldn't rule him out either. I think all three have decent chances.

Paul Nicholls, trainer of Ginny’s Destiny
We're putting cheekpieces and a tongue tie on to sharpen him at the suggestion of Harry Cobden. He's worked well in them at home and is in great shape. If he came back to his best you couldn’t rule him out because he'll love jumping the National fences.

Latenightpass: reported in good form by Gina AndrewsCredit: Grossick Racing (racingpost.com/photos)

Gina Andrews, rider of Latenightpass
He ran brilliantly at Cheltenham and doesn't know how to run a bad race. He goes well around here and has course-and-distance-winning form. He'd probably prefer the ground a little softer but he's in really good form and has come out of his race well.

Nicky Henderson, trainer of Fantastic Lady and Excello
They're both good and we're looking forward to it. Fantastic Lady has been round there before and done well. We would have quite liked to have run in the National but we weren't going to get in. Excello has shown a great attitude to these fences at home, we schooled him at home and he was exceptional.

Venetia Williams, trainer of Gemirande
It's his first time over these fences and he won't mind the ground.

Ben Pauling, trainer of Bad
He's been revitalised by the blinkers and he's showing what we always hoped he would. He's on a bit of a roll, he seems very well, and he schooled immaculately over the Aintree fences at Cheltenham. He was very good and very fast and couldn't have been any better. This race is obviously a very different kettle of fish.

Alan King, trainer of Grandeur D’Ame
His race was over before it began in the Ultima with the standing start being a major inconvenience and he got left when the tapes went up. He seems to have come out of the race in good order. You can't tell whether he'll take to the fences but it's worth trying.

Henry Daly, trainer of Lounge Lizard
This has been the aim for nearly two years. He went lame before the race last season so hopefully he'll get to run. We used the same format of missing Cheltenham and going to Huntingdon for the Oxo. He's got his ground.

Joe Tizzard, trainer of Eldorado Allen
If he takes to the fences as he did in the National, he’s capable of getting into a nice rhythm and could surprise a few people. Over this shorter trip I’d have no problem with him getting out in front.

Ian Donoghue, trainer of Lisnamult Lad
He went very hard in front at Leopardstown last time and ran well to finish fifth. This has been the plan. We ran him over two miles to sharpen him up and he got a small break afterwards. He's travelled over well and he's in good nick, while the ground should suit him.

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