Racing Post Ratings standout Chart Topper 'isn't short of a gear or two' - Patrick Mullins hoping for win on first visit to Kelso

The Premier Novices’ Hurdle is just ten days before the start of the Cheltenham Festival and it is therefore more of an Aintree trial.

Seven of the last nine winners of this Grade 2 looked to follow up at the Grand National meeting that season, but just one was successful – My Drogo in the 2021 Mersey Novices’ Hurdle.

My Drogo is the Premier’s best performer on Racing Post Ratings in the last decade, but his figure of 156 is much an outlier in recent runnings.

When ignoring My Drogo’s performance, the average winning RPR is 141 in that timeframe, but that has dropped significantly to just 135 since the cancellation of the 2018 race due to snow.

Given the Top Novices’ Hurdle and the Mersey at Aintree have required an average winning RPR of 151 in the last ten years, it can be said that the Kelso race hasn’t taken a lot of winning.

Chart Topper is a huge standout on RPRs this year. He strolled home to win a Downpatrick maiden hurdle by 25 lengths over this trip in August and impressed with how he quickly drew clear at Wetherby last time when asked for his effort.

That RPR of 138 would’ve been good enough to win four of the last five runnings, and the return to this longer trip at a stiff course like Kelso is sure to bring about more improvement.

Castle Carrock, Vanderpoel, Laganhill and Captain Butler are unbeaten under rules. The first-named is of most interest given the way he quickly pulled away from the Grade 2 bumper winner Diva Luna at Sandown in January.

However, Captain Butler could prove to be the value play. He gave the Morebattle-bound Slugger, who is now rated 130, 13lb and a comfortable beating in his sole bumper and looked a nice prospect when making a winning hurdling debut here in December.

Dedicated Hero, who is unbeaten in three starts at Kelso, and Roadlesstravelled carry a 5lb penalty for winning weak-looking Grade 2s, while Listentoyourheart will have to improve on her latest effort, albeit she is in receipt of weight all round.
Analysis by Harry Wilson

What they say

Sandy Thomson, trainer of Dedicated Hero
He’s got to give 5lb to nearly all of his rivals so it won’t be easy. The distance will suit, though, and he likes the track. He’s building up a nice profile and hasn’t done anything wrong. We might find out how good he is on Saturday.

AJ O’Neill, joint-trainer of Roadlesstravelled
He’s enjoyed a bit of a break since pulling up in the Formby at Aintree over Christmas. The ground may have been too soft for him that day. He’s in grand form.

Alan King, trainer of Castle Carrock
The plan had been to give Castle Carrock another run in an ordinary race with a penalty before going up in class, but I haven’t been able to find a two-mile novice anywhere and I don’t want to step him up in trip.

Patrick Mullins, rider of Chart Topper
He’s a homebred so we’re looking to get a bit of black type for the dam, too. The track will suit him as he isn’t short of a gear or two. Kelso deserves huge credit for the money on offer. It’s a very deep race, but we like him and we’re expecting him to run very well.

Trainer Henry Daly in the grounds at Downton Hall Stables in Ludlow 11.1.22 Pic: Edward Whitaker

Henry Daly: runs LaganhillCredit: Edward Whitaker

Henry Daly, trainer of Laganhill
He’s not done anything wrong yet and appears to go nicely. His form looks very solid. Glynn Brae, who finished second to him at Haydock, has won twice since. There aren’t a lot of races for him at the moment, so it looks a sensible decision to go for a nice race with a big pot. We’re finding out about him at this stage of his career, but I don’t think the drying ground or step up in trip will prove issues at all. It looks like the further he goes the better he'll be.

Ben Pauling, trainer of Vanderpoel
He's a lovely horse. It's a big step up in class, but the form of his first run has worked out incredibly well and he's going to be competitive.
Reporting by Richard Birch

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