'I've had to buy a new shirt!' - trainer quotes for the £50,000 ITV4 handicap

Saturday: 2.25 Goodwood tote Quadpot Starts Here Handicap | 7f | 3yo+ | ITV4/RTV

It's generally true that an inside draw is essential over seven furlongs at Goodwood. The start is on a sharp left-handed bend and those drawn in wide stalls often forfeit a good position.

However, the advantage is at its most pronounced when the track is riding at its tightest configuration, with the rail innermost, and draw statistics can vary from meeting to meeting.

So what do the figures tell us about this fixture? If we restrict our analysis to only seven-furlong handicaps run at Goodwood in August which were not part of the festival, stalls one and two have dominated in the last ten seasons, and that is even true in small-field races.

Only ten are declared for this handicap and nine of the 15 handicaps contested by fewer than 11 runners in that period have been won by horses drawn in stalls one or two (when adjusted for non-runners).

Furthermore, runners from stall one have beaten, on average, 62 per cent of their rivals and stall two 57 per cent. Backing both blind would have yielded a profit of £31.

Kimifive has the plum draw in stall one and attempts to break a 23-race losing streak on his debut for David Bridgwater. Kimifive races off the same mark as for that last win over course and distance, but Bridgwater is just 2-27 with runners on their debut for his yard after leaving another since the start of 2016, and both winners were over jumps (0-6 on the Flat).

Aratus has more obvious claims from stall two and the improving three-year-old is looking for a four-timer after his handicap debut victory at Newbury two weeks ago. Adam Kirby has ridden Aratus on all four starts, but David Egan takes over as Kirby can't do 8st 7lb.

Kirby switches to Clive Cox's other runner Dance Fever (stall seven) and Cox, who evidently has a strong hand, won this two years ago with Salute The Soldier.
Race analysis by Graeme Rodway

Cox in prime position to scoop valuable prize

Clive Cox trains the first two in the market for this £50,000 handicap and the trainer knows exactly what it takes to win it as his Salute The Soldier was successful in 2019 – and that horse has since gone on to Group 1 success in Dubai for his new trainer.

The lightly raced Aratus has enviable form figures of 2111 and Cox is hopeful this race will serve as the ideal step in the three-year-old's career.

The trainer said: "He is a very progressive horse and won well at Newbury last time. He gets a valuable weight-for-age allowance here to take on the older horses for the first time.

"I hope the field size will allow there not to be too many problems and he should like the conditions. What he's lacking is racecourse experience and we still need to achieve small steps at this stage, of which this is a perfect one."

On his stablemate and four-time winner Dance Fever, he added: "I think with the prize-money it's brought both horses together and going conditions for Dance Fever are essentially requiring a quicker surface.

"He's a horse we've always held in high regard. We have to play the shots accordingly, which is why we have two in the same race."

What they say

David O'Meara, trainer of Escobar
He was declared in the Celebration Mile in error and he runs in this. I hope he should have a decent chance; he likes Goodwood.

Charlie Hills, trainer of Persuasion
We had to give him a bit of time after his last run at Ascot. He's drawn well and is versatile in terms of ground.

David Bridgwater, trainer of Kimifive
The owners have Captain Tommy with us and they just thought a change of scenery could help. We've had him for four weeks or so and he looked a million dollars when he arrived. He's been running in some exceptionally competitive races and this is another, but if he puts his best foot forward he could run well. He seems to like the track. I'm used to Plumpton and Fontwell, so I've had to buy a new shirt!
Reporting by Maddy Playle

Read more of Saturday's race previews:

1.50 Goodwood: is the Prestige about proven performers or can 'special' Simcock filly step up?

2.45 Newmarket: a stepping stone to Group glory or a step down the ladder? What can we expect?

3.00 Goodwood: odds-on shot Nagano could be opposable for the March Stakes

3.15 Beverley: speed or stamina – which is key to winning the Beverley Bullet over a stiff five?

3.35 Goodwood: Benbatl out to make a winning return in Celebration Mile