How my new favourite stat helped me to find an elusive ground angle for punters

Last week this space was used to push a respectful scepticism towards the most basic received wisdoms in punting. It's an idea similar to 'Chesterton's fence', a parable by the writer and philosopher GK Chesterton which runs, 'Do not remove a fence until you know why it was put there in the first place'.

So there you are, I was beaten to it by the guy who created Father Brown. But, a week on, l have stumbled on a new favourite stat that can tell the story more elegantly than even Chesterton managed.

If you are a tipster especially, but also any punter looking for an edge, you quickly learn to recoil at the obvious. And there is no more obvious angle in racing than looking for horses who won last time.