Steve Palmer has five tips for the Open Championship – our golf expert is bidding to follow last week's 33-1 winner

When to bet on the Open Championship

By 6.35am on Thursday

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Steve Palmer's Open Championship predictions

Xander Schauffele
4pts each-way 25-1 Betfair, Paddy Power

Robert MacIntyre
3.5pts each-way 35-1 Betfair, Paddy Power

Justin Thomas
2pts each-way 55-1 bet365

Ryan Fox
1.5pts each-way 90-1 Betfair, Paddy Power

Jacob Skov Olesen
0.5pt each-way 700-1 Betfair, Paddy Power

Steve Palmer's Open Championship preview

Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy dominate the betting for the Open Championship and both deserve great respect. Scheffler has won three tournaments this year, including the US PGA in May, and eighth place in the Scottish Open last week was a tidy warm-up spin.

The world number one has steady Open form figures of 8-21-23-7, but still appears to be learning links golf and is making his Royal Portrush debut. He seems likely to get into contention, but offers no value at such short odds.

McIlroy is more tempting after an impressive runner-up effort at the Renaissance Club. The Masters champion, tenth in the 2012 Irish Open at Portrush before course changes, missed the cut by a shot in the 2019 Open. That was largely down to an opening-hole quadruple-bogey.

McIlroy may well put the icing on the cake of a dream season by lifting the Claret Jug in his homeland, but bookmakers are giving nothing away, with his price failing to reflect the extra scrutiny, pressure and tension which comes with being the headline act. McIlroy mood swings have been a feature of this year and this is an extreme temperament test.

Steve Palmer's top tip

Xander Schauffele 25-1

The defending champion appears much better value – Xander Schauffele looks a healthy price to retain the Claret Jug considering the encouragement he gained at the Scottish Open.

A rib injury rocked Schauffele at the start of this season and he has understandably taken time to regain the form which saw him win two Majors last year. From the end of March onwards, though, the old X-Man has slowly but surely emerged, and four rounds at the Renaissance Club hinted that the cool Californian may be peaking for the Open.

A share of 12th place in the Valspar Championship in March was the result of an incredible exhibition of iron-play – he gained more than 11 strokes on the field on approach – and Schauffele has been excelling in that department of the game. Despite that slow start to the year, he ranks seventh on the PGA Tour for strokes-gained on approach.

Coming into the small, largely elevated greens of Portrush, Schauffele should be as effective as anyone. Wayward driving has been the main bugbear of Schauffele this season – and he has not been holing as many putts – but every department of his game hit top gear at some stage in Scotland last week.

Defending champion Xander Schauffele was all smiles at Royal Portrush on MondayCredit: R&A via Getty Images

Schauffele's driving was magnificent over the first two rounds at the Renaissance, as well as his iron-play. He was the most accurate driver in the field in round two, despite averaging 336 yards off the tee. It was putting which stopped Schauffele strongly contending for the Scottish Open title, but in the final round his stroke was purring. He needed only 27 putts on Sunday.

With the driver starting to comply, his iron-play of field-leading quality at the Renaissance, and the putter warming at a timely juncture, a share of eighth place in Scotland can be followed by victory in Northern Ireland.

Schauffele has finished outside the top 30 in only one of his last nine starts, with solid 2025 Major form of 8-28-12, and he has gone a remarkable 68 tournaments without missing a cut. Five of his seven Opens, including the last three, have resulted in top-20 finish. In 33 Major starts, he has posted 25 top-20s – 13 of which have come in the last 14 Majors.

The world number three is being underrated in the outright market and the hero of Troon 2024 can repeat the dose. He won the 2022 Scottish Open on links terrain and triumphed on the island of Ireland in the JP McManus Pro-Am that year. Punters should forgive his humdrum 41st place in the 2019 Open at Portrush because his driver was deemed to be non-conforming that week, meaning he was unsettled in the build-up.

Next best bet

Robert MacIntyre 35-1

A Scottish Open title defence did not go to plan for Robert MacIntyre, but it would be foolish to dismiss the ever improving 28-year-old on the strength of last week. He found lots of bad lies in bunkers, caught under lips, and admitted to mentally checking out at the Renaissance over the weekend when he got too far behind to contend.

Portrush is MacIntyre's favourite links track and he finished sixth there in 2019 on his Open debut when ranked 146th in the world, before eighth place in the next Open in 2021. Since the thrill of being on a winning Ryder Cup team in 2023, the Scot has taken his game to a new level, winning the Canadian Open and the Scottish Open last summer.

Majors appear to hold no fears for MacIntyre, who finished eighth in the last year's US PGA, then runner-up in the US Open last month. He grew up playing links golf, winning the Scottish Amateur at an Open venue – Muirfield – in 2015. Only two players in the field outscored him in the final round at Portrush in 2019 and he finished fifth in last year's Irish Open at Royal County Down (NI).

Despite getting tailed off last week, there were still flashes of brilliance – his iron-play was strong in round one and his putter warmed in round three – and his overall 2025 CV should be the focus. Ninth place in the Players Championship was one of five top-tens this year.

Other selections

Justin Thomas 55-1
Ryan Fox 90-1
Jacob Skov Olesen 700-1

The world number four is remarkably deep in the betting given the form he showed in the 2019 Open at Portrush and the way he finished the Scottish Open on Sunday. The weather forecast provides further encouragement for Justin Thomas, who looks a massive price for a third Major victory.

Thomas has been dismissed by bookmakers due to a humdrum Open record, but his best result came with 11th place at Portrush six years ago. This season has been an excellent one for the former world number one, who could go even better this time.

Thomas was threatening victory at the end of last year, finishing second in the Zozo Championship and third in the Hero World Challenge, then was runner-up in The American Express in January. Another near-miss followed in the Valspar in March before JT finally returned to the winner's enclosure in April, winning a Signature Event by the coast in the Heritage.

Thomas has made huge putting strides this season, ranking 14th on the PGA Tour, and his approach-play has been typically sharp. Erratic driving has stopped him winning more titles, but the lack of wind in the Portrush forecast means he can have high hopes of keeping his ball in play off the tee. And the Scottish Open, where he made five birdies in his closing nine holes, was ideal preparation.

Thomas topped the greens in regulation statistics at the Renaissance on Sunday, closing with a 65 bettered by only two players in the field. At the odds, it is well worth chancing the 16-time PGA Tour champion finds enough fairways to contend.

Ryan Fox relishes links golf, highlighted by a magnificent Irish Open record and victory in the 2022 Dunhill Links Championship, a title he nearly defended 12 months later. The Kiwi loves his trips to this part of the world and won a Challenge Tour event 30 miles south of Portrush in 2016.

Kiwi Ryan Fox looks to be a genuine Claret Jug contenderCredit: Getty Images

Fox's best Open result came with 16th place at Portrush in 2019. The powerhouse, who can club down off the tee this week to find fairways, has been sensational from May onwards, winning two PGA Tour events, finishing 28th in the US PGA, 19th in the US Open and posting another two top-20s in PGA Tour Signature events.

Like MacIntyre, Fox seemed to mentally 'check out' over the weekend at the Renaissance when a winning chance had gone, saving himself for what appears his best ever chance of winning a Major. He won the BMW PGA at Wentworth in 2023 and could be set for further glory in the UK.

Complete your staking plan with 26-year-old left-hander Jacob Skov Olesen, who won the Amateur Championship at Ballyliffin, a links track in Ireland, last summer. The cocksure Dane finished 60th on his Open debut the following month, before earning a DP World Tour card at Q School.

Olesen finished fifth as an amateur in the Danish Golf Championship on the DPWT last year, then ninth in the Mauritius Open soon after turning pro. This year he has already posted five top-20s on the DPWT, came through an Open qualifier at Burnham and Berrow, and this rising star can make an impact at Portrush.

Steve Palmer's Open Championship key stat

The last 12 Open winners were all inside the top 40 of the world rankings going into Open week

Read more on the 153rd Open Championship: 

Open Championship first-round leader predictions: tips at 80-1, 90-1 and 225-1 

Open Championship specials predictions 

Open Championship first-round threeball predictions  

Our guide to all 156 players in the Royal Portrush field   

The Lowdown: Royal Portrush course guide 

Plus, don't forget to check out Steve Palmer's preview of the Barracuda Championship.

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