It's not premature to think about Paris - who do you fancy for the Arc in a very open year?

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If you find yourself in the mood to think about the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (October 5), it's no surprise. The great French race is months away but we've seen a few horses this weekend that might end up there and at one point it seemed the bookies were quoting 16-1 for the Arc about anything that managed to win somewhere other than Ffos Las.

Lambourn is a part of this discussion, of course. Aidan O'Brien told us after Sunday's win that he could be a King George or an Arc type, which of course he could be. I think most of us don't really believe he's good enough to win either of those. It's pretty telling that he's favourite for the St Leger, despite not seeming to have that race as a target.

We're halfway between the Grand National and Arc weekend, so it might seem premature to start thinking about Paris. But it's 10-1 the field right now and there's a good number of unconvincing names at the top of betting lists, so there's a lot of scope for making a clever and profitable decision. I don't suppose I will but perhaps you may.

There were three Group 1s over the last two days that pretty obviously point towards the Arc. The Pretty Polly and the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud have both been won by the subsequent Arc winner within the past three years.

• 'She could do anything' - 'incredible' Whirl co-favourite for Arc after denying Kalpana in pulsating Pretty Polly duel

The Irish Derby hasn't worked so well as a pointer. Hurricane Run 20 years ago was the last Curragh hero to bag the Arc that same year.

Bluestocking: won last year's ArcCredit: Edward Whitaker (racingpost.com/photos)

Just to remind ourselves what recent Arc winners have looked like, here's a canter through the campaigns they had:

2024 Bluestocking

Middleton WON
Pretty Polly WON
King George 2nd
Juddmonte International 4th
Vermeille WON

2023 Ace Impact

Suquet WON
Jacques Dogny WON
Suresnes WON
French Derby WON
Guillaume D'Ornano WON

2022 Alpinista

GP de Saint-Cloud WON
Yorkshire Oaks WON

Alpinista: glorious grey ran twice en-route to LongchampCredit: Edward Whitaker (racingpost.com/photos)

2021 Torquator Tasso

Badischen Wirtschaft 6th
Hansa-Preis WON
GP von Berlin 2nd
GP von Baden WON

2020 Sottsass

Harcourt 4th
Ganay WON
Gontaut-Biron 2nd
Irish Champion 4th

2019 Waldgeist

Ganay WON
Prince of Wales 3rd
King George 3rd
Foy WON

Enable: won back-to-back ArcsCredit: Edward Whitaker (racingpost.com/photos)

2018 Enable

September WON

2017 Enable

Newbury Conditions 3rd
Cheshire Oaks WON
Oaks WON
Irish Oaks WON
King George WON
Yorkshire Oaks WON

2016 Found

Alleged 3rd
Mooresbridge WON
Tattersalls Gold Cup 2nd
Coronation Cup 2nd
Prince of Wales 2nd
Yorkshire Oaks 2nd
Irish Champion 2nd

2015 Golden Horn

Feilden WON
Dante WON
Derby WON
Eclipse WON
Juddmonte International 2nd
Irish Champion WON

That's a fun way to be reminded of some old friends. Were any of you brave enough to back Found win-only in the Arc after she was second five times in a row? 

Sosie, who is 10-1 favourite for the Arc, has already taken in a race that doesn't appear anywhere on that list, the Ispahan over an extended nine furlongs. Is that a race you go for with a proper 1m4f horse? I think we've got a non-stayer as fav.

Minnie Hauk is next at 14-1. She won a prolonged battle with Whirl in the Oaks and, after seeing Whirl tell Kalpana: "You shall not pass!" in the Pretty Polly, we can have fresh respect for that achievement. 

But it's not like she's setting an awesome standard yet. She's following the Enable route but is a few pounds off that level so far.

Daryz is also 14s with a lot of firms, which is the detail that suggests to me this Arc market has a lot of developing to do. He sprang to prominence by winning the Prix Eugene Adam on Sunday. It's over 30 years since that was the right route to the Arc, Sunday's race was slowly run and he didn't settle.

Jan Brueghel looks more and more interesting at 16-1, having last been seen beating Calandagan in the Coronation Cup. That's another bit of form that got upgraded by events this weekend. He's King George favourite and his Arc price seems due for a trimming.

Gezora, a likeable winner of the French Oaks, is 20-1. A one-length defeat of Bedtime Story isn't good enough but she has more to offer and seems a likely stayer.

Minnie Hauk: Oaks form has been boosted by Whirl's Pretty Polly winCredit: Edward Whitaker (racingpost.com/photos)

Do you see Ombudsman stepping up in distance? He wouldn't be anywhere near the current 20-1 if he turned up, but for now connections seem occupied with the strong programme of 1m2f races.

There's Aventure and Los Angeles, both beaten in the last Arc and in their most recent outings. Then, at 25-1, we bump into New Ground, a late-finishing fourth when the Front Runner needed him to place in the Derby. It would be nice to see him settle better in his next race, possibly the Grand Prix de Paris in a couple of weeks.

For now, the interesting one could be Estrange, available at 20-1 with a couple of firms. If you don't know her, watch her Group 3 success at Haydock from the end of May. 

It was a striking performance from a striking looker, her coat being almost white (she's from the family of St Leger winner Logician). Danny Tudhope's hands only briefly strayed from her neck as she eased clear.

I don't think of David O'Meara as a man to hype his horses, so it's pretty interesting to hear him say things like: "She hasn't won a Group 1 yet but she potentially is the best we've had." He also mentioned the Arc as a potential target and, if she keeps going the right way, this year's race looks pretty winnable.

• 'Good horses are harder to come by these days - but we think she's quite special and the Arc is the ultimate dream'

We might see her back at Haydock for the Lancashire Oaks on Saturday, though I imagine connections would like to see some rain. The Yorkshire Oaks has also been mentioned.

On what she's done so far, 20-1 wouldn't be value. If you join the Front Runner in backing her now, you're buying a ticket for what we hope is a thrill ride that's just getting going.

Read these next:

Ombudsman and Sosie among star-studded line-up expected for Coral-Eclipse as fascinating Group 1 headlines big week 

Aidan O'Brien says criticism of Irish Derby card is 'absolute nonsense' after tough cookie Lambourn completes Classic double 

'I never lost confidence in him' - Francis Graffard eyes King George after Calandagan roars to first Group 1 win at Saint-Cloud 

The Front Runner is our unmissable email newsletter available exclusively to Racing Post+ subscribers. Chris Cook provides his take on the day's biggest stories and tips for the upcoming racing every morning from Monday to Friday. Not a Racing Post+ subscriber? Join today and also receive our Ultimate Daily emails plus our full range of fantastic website and newspaper content.