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Undue Ballydoyle panic has reigned in the Futurity build-up - what caused the market upheaval and who is hoping to stop their Group 1 domination?

Conor Fennelly on what's been going on behind closed doors at Ballydoyle this week

Aidan O'Brien: in fine form at Leopardstown
Aidan O'Brien trains three of the five Futurity runnersCredit: Alan Crowhurst (Getty Images)

When William Hill reported a considerable drift on Benvenuto Cellini on Wednesday for the Futurity Trophy, alarm bells were ringing for many of the favourite's supporters, but it once again illustrated the vagaries of ante-post markets.

With Aidan O'Brien responsible for nine out of the 13 entries, the majority of them also entered in the two Group 1s at Saint-Cloud on Sunday, the market was always going to be highly sensitive to any kind of stimulation, particularly with testing ground on the agenda at Doncaster.

Benvenuto Cellini's original odds-on price was prohibitively short, and that became more apparent when O'Brien revealed that runaway Beresford winner Hawk Mountain was also being pointed towards the Futurity. As a result a market correction was required, and while Benvenuto Cellini is no longer an 8-13 chance, he still remains a strong favourite at around 11-10 at the time of writing.

Hazelwood offers a Dubawi colt from the family of recent Beresford Stakes winner Hawk Mountain
Beresford Stakes winner Hawk Mountain briefly replaced stablemate Benvenuto Cellini as Futurity favourite midweekCredit: Patrick McCann

In illiquid ante-post markets where high-profile horses are likely to be too short anyway, panic can be caused by a mere market correction that begins to snowball. The Lion In Winter took a significant walk in the betting in the weeks leading up to the Derby but still lined up, while Delacroix was shortened to 5-1 (from 16-1) for the Sussex Stakes despite O'Brien reporting on several occasions he was being geared towards the Juddmonte, in which he finished runner-up to Ombudsman.

O'Brien being just six short of beating his own record of 28 Group 1s in a calendar year adds a further layer of intrigue into how Ballydoyle's typically powerful squad of juveniles have been campaigned this weekend.

They will almost certainly have the first three in the betting for the Futurity, while the supplemented Puerto Rico will be an extremely tough nut to crack in the Criterium International at Saint-Cloud on Sunday and is joined by four stablemates.

Pierre Bonnard looked special when decisively landing the Zetland Stakes last time and he's the star attraction in the Criterium de Saint-Cloud, a race where Christmas Day, Endorsement and Isaac Newton are well worth their place. A Group 1 treble is a distinct possibility and the likes of Minnie Hauk, True Love, Precise and Gstaad, among others, are waiting in the wings to try and add to the tally at the Breeders' Cup at Del Mar.

Ballydoyle's Futurity opponents

Oxagon

Hugely impressive winner of a 7f Sandown novice by eight lengths in July, Oxagon has since run with credit stepped up to Group company in Doncaster’s Champagne Stakes and the Dewhurst Stakes at Newmarket. He steps up to a mile for the first time.

Thady Gosden, joint-trainer of the Frankel colt, said: “He came out of the Dewhurst in very good order and we think a mile will suit him.

“They've had a considerable amount of rain at Doncaster. We think he’ll handle very soft ground, but it is a question mark.”

Rochfortbridge

The Mehmas colt looks certain to start a big-priced outsider, but he proved he could handle the mud when a highly creditable runner-up to Shayem in a Pontefract Listed race on Monday.

He stays a mile, but will have to settle better in this much stronger company as he is pitched into a Group 1 for the first time.

Smart View's Futurity verdict


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