This filly is in the Arc, but with breeding which doesn't scream stamina can she become an atypical winner of the Pinnacle?

The Lester Piggott Fillies’ Stakes, formerly known as the Pinnacle, has a track record of its winners going on to better things in the same season.

Subsequent winners of the British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes, Prix Vermeille and Prix de Royallieu (twice) – all Group 1 races – landed this in the last ten years, while last season’s winner Queen Of The Pride and 2019 scorer Manuela De Vega followed up in the Group 2 Lancashire Oaks.

It’s no shock. Looking through the sires of the last ten winners is like a who’s who of top-class middle-distance horses, with the progeny of Roaring Lion, Sea The Stars, Champs Elysees, Galileo and Nathaniel all successful.

What those sires have in common is their Flat stamina index (SI) – the average distance over which a stallion’s progeny aged three-year-old and upwards have won – is at least 10.6. The four winners who didn’t conform had sires with an SI of between 9 and 9.6, but each of their damsires had an SI of 10.

That would make likely favourite Estrange an atypical winner. The four-year-old is by Night Of Thunder (SI of 8) out of an Oasis Dream (7.6) mare, a pedigree that doesn’t scream stamina, but she gave the impression she’d get further when strong at the finish to land a Listed race over a mile and a quarter on soft ground in November when last seen.

Estrange holds Group 1 entries in the Arc and the Pretty Polly Stakes, run over two furlongs shorter, and this potentially top-class filly will be a big player if seeing out the trip, although drying ground isn't a help.

Sioux Life, who also holds a Pretty Polly entry, is not a certain stayer and a 5lb penalty for her Group 2 win in Italy will make life tough, while Beautiful Love is top rated but has achieved by far her best form in America and is no standout under a 3lb penalty.

Therefore, the most likely winner looks to be Shaha, a Cracksman (10.3) filly who had Chorus and Our Golden One well behind when an impressive winner in Listed company over this trip last time. She's in the Arc and is unexposed after just four starts.
Analysis by Harry Wilson

What they say

Marco Botti, trainer of Sioux Life
She has a penalty for her Group 2 win in Italy, which makes things a bit tricky, but I thought she was staying on well at York and if there is any ease in the ground it will suit her.

Charlie Appleby, trainer of Beautiful Love
She came out of her run at York in great shape and we are hoping the step up in trip will put her back on the winning track. Her last two runs have been solid and we feel a mile and a half is her optimum distance.

David O’Meara, trainer of Estrange and Invisible Friend
Estrange was brilliant last year. She won her maiden at Goodwood and then a Listed fillies’ race at Doncaster. The recent rain will have been a help, and it’s her first run at a mile and a half. I am looking forward to seeing her run. Invisible Friend also enjoyed a good season last year. She was placed in that Listed race behind Estrange and also finished third in Listed company in France.

Tom Ward, trainer of Our Golden One
It's a tough race, but she goes there in very good form. The tongue-tie has been very useful and it's brought out plenty of improvement in her. We hope it does that again as we're searching for black type.

Thady Gosden, joint trainer of Shaha
She won the Daisy Warwick Stakes at Goodwood in good style on just her fourth start and she’s still an inexperienced filly. This race is the natural next step and she has pleased in her work.
Reporting by David Milnes

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