The late and controversial switch leaves the Mares' Hurdle open to Lossiemouth - can anyone stop last year's winner?

Willie Mullins certainly loves a late switcheroo and plenty of punters were up in arms on Sunday when Lossiemouth was declared for this race, rather than the Champion Hurdle, which the Mullins team had long insisted would be the culmination of their two-year plan.

It may be the right thing to do by the horse and that is, correctly, Mullins' only concern, but it’s a rotten one for the sport as a whole. It weakens the opening day feature and takes away the competitiveness of this race, too. It’s a double blow that the Cheltenham Festival didn’t need.

In these same column inches last year I wrote of this race that “the issue [regarding the lack of competitiveness in the Mares’ Hurdle] in recent years has been bona fide Champion Hurdle contenders lining up against inferior opposition”. Well, nothing has changed over 12 months.

Lossiemouth was the clear third favourite for the Champion Hurdle, but now lines up against a field in which her nearest rival on BHA ratings is 9lb below her. She is rated 160, but the average rating of all the runners in this race is just 144, which illustrates the gulf in class.

The race needs reform so that mares who have won open Grade 1s (e.g. ones which weren’t confined only to mares or novices) aren’t allowed to run. That rule would have ensured that Lossiemouth, who won the Hatton’s Grace at Fairyhouse, wouldn’t be given this easy option.

But let’s put aside that argument to at least harbour belief that the race won’t be as one-sided as it appears on paper and there is hope on that score when considering SPs of recent winners.

The average winning SP in the last ten years has been 5.88-1 and there have been 18-1, 11-1 and 10-1 winners. However, Annie Power would have justified 1-2 favouritism ten years ago but for falling at the last, and the same can be said for 10-11 hotpot Benie Des Dieux in 2019.

Should something of that magnitude go wrong for Lossiemouth then the race is more open behind her, but it’s still Mullins who is likely to hold the key. Jade De Grugy is clear second best on BHA ratings and the one that the market makes the big danger too, ahead of Joyeuse.

There is more than a little bit of Glens Melody about Jade De Grugy. Glens Melody was the second favourite who took advantage of Annie Power’s last-flight mishap to win ten years ago and she had a BHA mark of 150. That is just 1lb lower than Jade De Grugy’s current 151.

Jade De Grugy is sure to run her race and be in the mix, but lacks the star quality that Lossiemouth brings to the race and will probably need a mishap from her stablemate.

Joyeuse does still have the X factor and, with her dam being a half-sister to Champion Hurdle winner Epatante, she is bred to be a Grade 1 performer. However, she is rated 22lb behind Lossiemouth and has to race on level weights, so has a proverbial mountain to climb.
Analysis by Graeme Rodway

This is Lossiemouth's best chance of winning – Mullins

Willie Mullins is obsessed with winning at the Cheltenham Festival and he is certain the decision to go for more Mares' Hurdle glory with Lossiemouth is the right call.

A tilt at the Champion Hurdle had been the plan throughout the season until last week, when murmurs of a switch back to the Mares' surfaced. The six-year-old was an effortless winner of the race a year ago.

That decision was confirmed at Sunday's declarations stage and she bids to emulate greats Quevega and Honeysuckle as a multiple winner of the Mares' Hurdle. It would also be her third success at the meeting, following victory in the 2023 Triumph Hurdle.

Lossiemouth waltzed to victory in the Mares' Hurdle

Lossiemouth: was a brilliant winner of the Mares' Hurdle last yearCredit: Edward Whitaker (racingpost.com/photos)

"After much consideration we had a late change of heart and decided to run Lossiemouth in this race, which she won last year," Mullins said. "Paul [Townend, jockey] was keen to ride her here and it represents her best chance of winning at the festival. She's in good form and hopefully she will do the business again this year."

She leads a three-strong Mullins team as he bids for a staggering 11th Mares' Hurdle success. Grade 1 winners Jade De Grugy and Gala Marceau also represent the Closutton trainer, with both owned by Kenny Alexander.

Mullins added: "Jade De Grugy came back after a break to win at Punchestown last month. However, that was only 19 days ago and that might impact her chances in a race of this calibre.

"Gala Marceau jumped poorly when third at Warwick but has a good chance of being placed here if she cleans up her jumping."

What they say

Willy Twiston-Davies, assistant trainer to Nigel Twiston-Davies, trainer of Casa No Mento
It's a step up in trip and Sam [Twiston-Davies, jockey] thinks that might suit her. It's a very competitive race and we're under no illusions but she's a very good filly on her day and she always seems to come to her best in the spring.

Fergal O'Brien, trainer of Dysart Enos
We're really looking forward to running her. Usually I'd get a bit nervous before, especially as we missed last year's festival at the last minute, but I think she's going here under the radar. She's only run one bad race in her life, which was at Ascot last time, and before that she ran a great race in the Greatwood Hurdle. She's going up in trip, but there's no issues with that and she could run a nice race.

Nicky Henderson, trainer of Joyeuse
She has got a bit to find, but that Newbury run was pretty special and she's a mare who has been improving all along. She'll have to improve again, but she's got every chance. We couldn't go for the County Hurdle as she was ineligible, so we're here and she's in good form.

Henry de Bromhead, trainer of July Flower
I have to say I'm really happy with her. She looks great and travelled over great. Hopefully she'll be there or thereabouts at the business end. Her build-up has gone well.

Gordon Elliott, trainer of Kala Conti
She's a very good and consistent mare who should run very well. She ran a big race at Leopardstown over Christmas and deserves to take her chance, albeit it's a very hot race now.

Harry Derham, trainer of Queens Gamble
She's in very good form at home and it's great we can have a crack at a race like this. She's come out of her last run in Ireland fine and the betting and the ratings tell us we've got it all to do in front of us, but her form shows that she does well at the track.

Dan Skelton, trainer of Take No Chances
It's a very competitive race but she's had a fantastic season, winning a Listed race and a Grade 2. She'll be better going over two and a half miles and she'll need to do so to be competitive.
Reporting by Matt Rennie

Day one of the Cheltenham Festival:

1.20 Cheltenham: 'He will get warm and jig-joggy beforehand' - Kopek Des Bordes the Supreme standout, but will the hood keep a lid on his temperament?

2.00 Cheltenham: 'He's in the best possible shape he can be in' - is this the one to beat the Willie Mullins hotpot in the Arkle?

2.40 Cheltenham: 'We've been looking at this race for most of the season' - analysis and trainer quotes for the Ultima Handicap Chase

4.00 Cheltenham: 'They'll go a good gallop, but that won't worry Constitution Hill' - Nicky Henderson undaunted as superstar faces stiff challenge

4.40 Cheltenham: 'We're in the best shape we can be and we're full of confidence' - top trainers bid to solve Fred Winter puzzle

5.20 Cheltenham: 'The further he goes, the better he is' - strong stayer Haiti Couleurs out to fulfil long-term National Hunt Chase plan