‘She won very easily last time’ - analysis and key quotes for the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes

It's a typically small field for the Group 1 Keeneland Phoenix Stakes – just two renewals since 2017 have had eight or more runners – but the race rarely lacks intrigue and this year is no different.

Royal Ascot winners and Aidan O'Brien-trained stablemates Gstaad and True Love will not go head-to-head after the Coventry winner was declared a non-runner on Saturday morning.

The pair had met in a 6f maiden at Navan in May when the apparent second string Gstaad prevailed, beating his better fancied stablemate, who went off at 2-5, by three-quarters of a length.

True Love's price that day was based on the promise of her second place on her debut, when she split the smart Lady Iman and the reopposing Power Blue in Listed company at this track.

Gstaad won a shade cosily, but there's little doubt True Love has stepped forward since and the No Nay Never filly justified 9-4 favouritism when dropped to the minimum trip for the Group 2 Queen Mary at Ascot.

The race didn't pan out ideally for her. She led the near-side group and all of those around her began to drop away at the two-furlong pole, resulting in True Love having to race on her own at a vital stage of the race, when the other groups were ahead. However, as soon as Ryan Moore angled her to race alongside Zelaina in the centre, she began to blast home and ultimately scored by a length and a quarter.

She showed an excellent attitude there and followed up in the same grade in the Railway Stakes last time. Back up to six furlongs, she became the first filly to land the race in 31 years when storming five lengths clear of stablemate Puerto Rico, who reopposes. Her speed was on full display in the closing stages as she clocked a 10.78sec penultimate furlong.

Puerto Rico and Power Blue, who was fifth behind Gstaad in the Coventry, will have to find enormous improvement from somewhere to reverse that form.

Moore is expected to replace Wayne Lordan on True Love and she has become the one to beat. Ballydoyle wouldn't want a searching gallop given how effective she is over five furlongs and Puerto Rico would likely be allowed to stride on with no pressure. In such circumstances, True Love would probably have a gear change in the final couple of furlongs that her rivals can't match.

Green Sense looks the biggest danger. After landing her maiden impressively over course and distance in April, she finished second to Lady Iman at Naas. She was well fancied for the Albany but didn't fire, perhaps the quick ground scuppering her chance, and she got back on track on an easier surface when staying on strongly to land the Group 2 Prix Robert Papin at Chantilly last time.

The ground will be on the fast side here, but it won't be as quick as it was at Ascot, so she should be fine on it and she looks well worth this shot at a Group 1.

Green Sense out to make Group 1 breakthrough for Joseph O'Brien

Green Sense arrives for her Group 1 assignment in excellent form after bouncing back from her Royal Ascot disappointment on quick ground at Chantilly last time in the Prix Robert Papin, showing her true colours to bag Group 2 honours.

Green Sense: worth a shot at the Group 1 Phoenix StakesCredit: Caroline Norris (racingpost.com/photos)

Joseph O'Brien is yet to add this race to his trainer's CV but was in the saddle for two of Ballydoyle's 17 victories in the race on Dick Whittington (2014) and Air Force Blue (2015).

Green Sense, a daughter of Starman, bids to emulate Babouche last year after she became the first filly since La Collina in 2011 to land the Phoenix Stakes.

A course-and-distance winner in her maiden in April, O'Brien has been happy with her preparation and is hopeful she can give her rivals plenty to do.

"We've been happy with her since her win in the Papin," he said. "She's a Group 2 winner and it would be great to get some Group 1 black type. 

"The course and distance should suit her well and she won her maiden over it. We're hoping for a good run."

What They Say

David Loughnane, trainer of Do Bronxs
He's in good form at home, but this is ambitious and a shot in the dark. He looks like he'll be out of his depth and we aren't going there with any expectations.

Aidan O'Brien, trainer of True Love and Puerto Rico
True Love won very easily last time in the Railway and she seems to have been in good form since. Puerto Rico is a hardy horse and we were very happy with his run in the Richmond at Goodwood. He seems to be improving with racing. 

Adrian Murray, trainer of Power Blue
He's been in good form all year and is entitled to take his chance. He's proven on the track and never runs a bad race. We expect a big run. We might not beat Aidan O’Brien’s horses, but hopefully we'll give them a run for it.

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