Majborough 'has class to see off Arkle rivals' says Mullins - but jumps data suggests hot favourite may have met his match

The Arkle is the novice equivalent of the Queen Mother Champion Chase, Wednesday's feature race. Any trends you want to trust for one race ought to apply to a significant extent to the other.

The Champion Chase has a reputation as a black hole for short-priced favourites. Nine of the 12 odds-on shots in the race this century have been beaten, while eight of the last ten Arkles have gone to the favourite, including all five odds-on shots.

Either there's a reason for that disparity, or both trends are false positives. With Majborough seemingly certain to start odds-on this year, it's worth finding out which it is.

It's thought the two main reasons favourites have done better in the Arkle both come down to it being a race for novices. Fields are shallower for one. This is the third five-runner Arkle in the last ten years. 

Partly as a result of that, and partly because these horses are less experienced over fences, they do not go at the sort of searching gallop that so often catches out horses in the Champion Chase. El Fabiolo last year, like Chacun Pour Soi, Kauto Star, Well Chief and Moscow Flyer before him, was undone by meeting a fence or two badly.

For that reason, you can be more comfortable backing the talented Majborough than if this were a Champion Chase. But we still cannot ignore the intrinsic similarity of the two races, and this horse would come off second-best if this were a test of pure jumping.

L'Eau Du Sud has a clear edge in experience over Majborough. More often than not, experience doesn't make up for a gap in ability, but we no longer have to talk in general terms when it comes to efficient jumping.

RaceIQ has been around for 18 months and aims to solve the age-old question of how much ground is gained or lost when jumping fences. Their lengths-gained-jumping metric, measured relative to other horses in that race, is the closest we have to putting a number on what race-readers have spent a career learning to feel out.

RaceIQ data for the runs of L'Eau Du Sud and Majborough in Graded novice chases shows they have been the most efficient jumpers in each of their races. What is notable is how dominant L'Eau Du Sud has been compared with his rivals, especially when he won the Arkle Trial here in November.

While the conclusions from the data are arguably a lot more complex, as a rule of thumb they suggest L'Eau Du Sud has a few lengths' worth of a start in the Arkle. Years ago, it would have been the other way around.

Majborough is five and the last five-year-old to win this race, Voy Por Ustedes, was receiving 5lb weight for age. All the five-year-old winners of this race in recent memory have been either horses who started on the Flat, or who raced in France as a three-year-old. Voy Por Ustedes ran five times in his homeland. Majborough was plucked from France after winning on his debut and is exciting partly because he has won races while looking so raw. 

Majborough is very likely to be the best of these five in time, but you will get paid out on only one of them today. So, it may be worth treating this year's Arkle as a bit more like a Champion Chase.
Analysis by Keith Melrose

'He should have the class to see off this opposition'

Is Majborough the most solid of all the short-priced favourites on the opening day? The verdict from punters and pundits alike is he might just be the banker of the festival. 

Last year's Triumph Hurdle winner is one of four short-priced favourites for the Grade 1s on Tuesday, with bookmakers fearing a payout in the tens of millions if they deliver.

After two starts at the highest level over hurdles, the five-year-old won a beginners' chase before being thrown in at the deep end in the Grade 1 Irish Arkle last month. His jumping was far from perfect, which will provide some hope to those planning to oppose the odds-on favourite, but he was still a comfortable winner from Touch Me Not.

"Majborough has looked top class and looks the pick," said Willie Mullins, who has won six of the last ten runnings of the Arkle, most recently with Gaelic Warrior and El Fabiolo. "He won the Triumph Hurdle here last year and he should have the class to see off this opposition. The only negative might be that he is just a five-year-old."

Should his relative inexperience prove costly, L'Eau Du Sud looks the most likely of his four rivals to capitalise. The seven-year-old did not reach anywhere near the same exalted heights over hurdles but has a flawless record over fences, with two Grade 2 successes and a convincing win in the Grade 1 Henry VIII Novices' Chase in December.

Majborough: winner of the Triumph Hurdle at Cheltenham last yearCredit: Edward Whitaker

Dan Skelton is fully aware of the challenge of taking on Majborough, but believes L'Eau Du Sud has a "big chance" of causing a minor upset. "He's undefeated over fences this year and has looked good in everything he's done," he said. "His training has been good since his last run, the nicer ground will be a positive, and I'm looking forward to it."

The trainer described his most recent victory in the Grade 2 Kingmaker Novices' Chase at Warwick as a "really good" preparation for the Arkle. Giving away 5lb to the runner-up, he finished a length clear of Rubaud, who didn't waste any time in giving the form a welcome boost when landing the Grade 2 Pendil Novices' Chase at Kempton last month. 

"His preparation has been good so we can't wait to get him out there," added Skelton. "We take on strong opposition in Majborough and it's going to be hard to beat him. He was a Grade 1-winning hurdler, which L'Eau Du Sud wasn't, but we're heading to Cheltenham full of hope and he's in the best possible shape he can be in."

What they say

Nicky Henderson, trainer of Jango Baie
He's in very good form. As we know he's coming back to two miles and he would've preferred a bit longer, but he's pretty sharp. It was a very good run at Sandown on horrible ground, so he'll definitely appreciate the better ground.

Gordon Elliott, trainer of Touch Me Not
He's been a revelation since we sent him over fences. We never thought he would reach this level but he just loves jumping. He wears his heart on his sleeve and hopefully his jumping will keep him in the race. Majborough will be hard to beat, but he's in great form.

Gavin Cromwell, trainer of Only By Night
It was a hard decision to make whether to run her here or the Mares' Chase but she can only run in the Arkle this year and she can run in the Mares' after that. It's a small field headed by Majborough who is a very talented horse. We'd need him not to be at his best to win the race. That said, I think our mare is better than the market makes out and she's capable of beating the rest.
Reporting by Jonathan Harding

Day one of the Cheltenham Festival:

1.20 Cheltenham: 'He will get warm and jig-joggy beforehand' - Kopek Des Bordes the Supreme standout, but will the hood keep a lid on his temperament?   

2.40 Cheltenham: 'We've been looking at this race for most of the season' - analysis and trainer quotes for the Ultima Handicap Chase   

3.20 Cheltenham: The late and controversial switch leaves the Mares' Hurdle open to Lossiemouth - can anyone stop last year's winner?  

4.00 Cheltenham: 'They'll go a good gallop, but that won't worry Constitution Hill' - Nicky Henderson undaunted as superstar faces stiff challenge  

4.40 Cheltenham: 'We're in the best shape we can be and we're full of confidence' - top trainers bid to solve Fred Winter puzzle  

5.20 Cheltenham: 'The further he goes, the better he is' - strong stayer Haiti Couleurs out to fulfil long-term National Hunt Chase plan  

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