Shadow Of Light meets heavyweight Juddmonte pair, but are big-priced trial runners being underestimated?

I joke sometimes that the Commonwealth Cup, rather than the St Leger, ought to be treated as the fifth Classic. I would not pretend to have a fully costed argument to back it up. Still, look at this year's race and the comparison can be made.

The market is dominated by horses representing major breeding operations Godolphin, Juddmonte, Coolmore and Aga Khan Studs, while relatively new superpower owners Qatar, Amo and Wathnan also have runners. What the Commonwealth Cup also shares with the St Leger is the sense that a lot of its contenders are here because they failed in the 'proper' Classics.

Derby winners rarely run in the Leger; Derby also-rans tend to win it. Similarly, a chunk of the Commonwealth Cup field tends to come via one of the Guineas, or at least dabbled in a Guineas trial.

There are a couple of quite forceful examples this year. Favourite Shadow Of Light was third in the 2,000 Guineas, and Jonquil won the Greenham before finishing second in the French Guineas. Four of the ten winners of this race had run in either the 2,000 Guineas or the Greenham.

Horses dropping back in trip on Ascot's straight course is an angle that crops up regularly. This is as apt a race as any to test it.

The theory has a lot to recommend it. Of the 566 horses since 2010 who have run over six furlongs here having run over further last time, 50 have won. You would have expected 42 winners by a simple analysis that gives all horses an equal chance, and around 44 if you factored in their prices. By either measure, trip-droppers over six furlongs at Ascot are winning more than ten per cent more often than expected. That is an unalloyed positive.

Restricting the search to just Listed and Group races shows a muddier picture. Here the angle still exists, 14 winners from 76 runners is about nine per cent higher than what you would expect. However, in these races it is overbet. Backing such runners at SP would have resulted in a level-stakes loss of more than £40.

Babouche: right into the Royal Ascot reckoning with stylish performance at Naas

Babouche: one of two big Juddmonte contendersCredit: Patrick McCann (racingpost.com/photos)

Shadow Of Light and Jonquil deserve to be the prices they are based on their class edge, but their demonstrable form over further is not adding much further to the positives column.

Babouche is the clear pick of the out-and-out sprinters. She is a Group 1 winner who convincingly beat Whistlejacket last time, and besides two forgivable runs in the meantime could be said to be seriously progressive. She is also drawn right beside Shadow Of Light, and many of the likely pacesetters, in stall 18.

But with the lack of depth and up to five places on offer, there is an opening to play the Commonwealth Cup each-way. Big Mojo and Diablo Rojo, the first two from the Commonwealth Cup Trial over course and distance, are being underestimated.

As the ground quickens, the appeal of the US-trained Shisospicy grows. She has moved through the ranks in her homeland, most recently winning by a yawning margin at Churchill Downs last month.

That was over five and a half furlongs and around a bend. The clear doubt is whether Shisospicy will last home, it being intuitive that a race which can suit erstwhile Guineas horses would also struggle to play to the strengths of an American flyer. Not all Commonwealth Cup winners arrived here with sprinting as their day job, but it is worth remembering that they all finished their careers in the speed ranks.
Race analysis by Keith Melrose

Long-term plan comes to the boil for Juddmonte

The biggest threat to Shadow Of Light appears to come from Juddmonte's one-two punch of Babouche and Jonquil, but it is not as simple as arrowing in on who Colin Keane rides as the organisation's newly retained rider as his partnering of Babouche here owes plenty to continuity.

The decision largely came down to the fact that Keane has never sat on Jonquil, while he has been on board for all six of Babouche's runs.

Juddmonte's racing manager Barry Mahon said:"Both are in good form. This has been the plan for Babouche since the start of the season. She won her trial at Naas very impressively and the ground should be fine for her.

Oisin Murphy riding Jonquil wins the Greenham Stakes at Newbury

Jonquil: will be partnered by Christoph SoumillonCredit: Alan Crowhurst (Getty Images)

"Colin has stuck with her. The fact he's ridden her in all her starts and hasn't had a sit yet on Jonquil meant that made sense, as he knows her so well. We'd be hopeful of a good performance."

With Jonquil's Greenham and French Guineas partner Oisin Murphy required to ride Shisospicy for Qatar Racing, Christophe Soumillon deputises on the horse beaten just a head by Henri Matisse at Longchamp.

"This wasn't plan A for Jonquil, but he's been rock-solid all year," added Mahon. "He looked great in the Greenham and was just touched off in the French Guineas. The form of that looks good after Henri Matisse ran so well in the St James's Palace. He'll love the ground, and whether he handles the drop back in trip or not we'll find out on the day."

What they say

Kevin Ryan, trainer of Ain't Nobody
He's in good form and has good form at the track. Fast ground will suit.

Karl Burke, trainer of Arabie and Leovanni
Leovanni goes there in good shape and I hope she can show up well. She likes the track and should run well if she gets the six furlongs. Arabie is in good order and we've left the headgear off as he didn't really face it the last couple of times. The ground will be plenty quick enough, but he should run his race.

Amy Drummond, racing manager to Amo Racing, joint-owner of Arizona Blaze with Giselle de Aguiar and owner of Diablo Rojo
Arizona Blaze's record speaks for itself. He loves the fast ground so we're hoping for a big run. I love Diablo Rojo, he's really tough. He's in a visor for the first time as he's quite a laid-back character and hopefully they'll help him get away from the gates a little bit sharper.

Mick Appleby, trainer of Big Mojo
He's in good order and should have a decent chance. He's a course-and-distance winner and if he reproduces that he shouldn't be far away.

Aidan O'Brien, trainer of Ides Of March and Whistlejacket
We've always thought the Commonwealth Cup would really suit Whistlejacket. The more competitive a race is the better he'll be. He'll really enjoy the high tempo from the word go. Ides Of March will love this ground and seems to be in very good form.

Simon Crisford, joint-trainer of Soldier's Heart and Arabian Dusk
Both are in good form. Arabian Dusk ran an excellent race in the Sandy Lane and has approached this in very good shape. Soldier's Heart was a bit ring-rusty in France for his reappearance, but he's sharpened up a lot since then.

Eddie Harty, joint-trainer of Carla Ridge
She's up against it but on her run in the Lacken she's bang there with Whistlejacket, albeit she's a few pounds wrong. She's been in good form since and based on that run and her run in the Guineas trial at Leopardstown, she's entitled to take her chance. She's bred to get further, but seems to be all about speed and I think she'll love the fast ground.

Joseph O'Brien, trainer of Lady With The Lamp
She's been consistent and progressive. She's stepping up in class, but we're hoping she can outrun her odds.

Francis Graffard, trainer of Rayevka
I've always loved this filly. She was beaten first time out because of the ground, but then she broke her maiden brilliantly so we went straight to the Cheveley Park. It went wrong at Newmarket and then first time out this year she was a bit too keen so we decided to drop her in behind to get her to relax, and we saw the filly I always thought she was in the Prix Marchand D'Or. It’s the last Group 1 for three-year-olds over six furlongs and it’s a very strong field, so we’ll see if she’s up to this level.

William Haggas, trainer of Sky Majesty
She's very well, but I hope the ground isn't too firm. That could be a concern.
Reporting by Stuart Riley

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