Can hot favourite Archivist break cycle and become three-year-old winner of John Smith's Cup?

Progressive three-year-old winners were commonplace in the John Smith’s Cup before the turn of the century, but that's no longer the case.

There's been just one winner from the Classic generation since 2001 and that was Wigmore Hall in 2010. He won the Grade 1 Northern Dancer at Woodbine the following two years.

The record of three-year-olds is more to do with a lack of runners than anything else, with just two from that age group lining up in the past ten years. Leroy Leroy finished 17th in 2019, while Remaadd came home in seventh last year.

The latter was trained by William Haggas, who's responsible for the sole three-year-old in the field. So, can Archivist break the cycle?

The chestnut colt bumped into plenty of good horses last year, filling the runner-up spot behind subsequent Zetland Stakes winner Starzintheireyes, Group 1 Futurity Trophy fourth Seaplane and Listed scorer Smoken, and he proved better than a mark of 90 when winning on his handicap debut over a mile at this course last time.

He’s 2lb well in under a 5lb penalty and is also receiving a 10lb weight-for-age allowance, while he has shaped like stepping up to a mile and a quarter would suit. He also looks to have fared well by being drawn low in stall six.

When adjusted for non-runners, the record of horses drawn in stalls higher than ten in handicaps of 14 or more runners over this trip at York since 2017 reads just 4-262, and three of those winners came when soft featured in the going description.

That could prove a significant statistic as Thunder Run (stall 17), who looks well treated, Fox Legacy (19) and Naqeeb (13) all feature among the market principals.

Sea That Storm (ten) possibly bumped into a stakes performer over course and distance last time and is 2lb well in, while Austrian Theory (three), seventh in that same race, hasn’t had much luck and could go well at a price.

However, Hand Of God (nine) could be the one. He was progressive last year, completing a hat-trick in the Golden Gates before missing the rest of 2024, and took a big step forward from his reappearance at Royal Ascot, where he appeared not to stay a mile and a half. This was mooted as the possible next step and he could be a big player dropping back in trip.
Analysis by Harry Wilson

Archivist middle leg of Haggas 'big three'

It could prove a lucrative 35 minutes for William Haggas between 2.50pm and 3.25pm on Saturday afternoon.

More Thunder, likely to start favourite for the £100,000 bet365 Bunbury Cup at Newmarket, could get the ball rolling.

Twenty minutes later, Archivist, generally 3-1 market leader for the £200,000 John Smith’s Cup at York, bids to justify his position from the foot of the weights.

To round off what promises to be an exciting time for all concerned, Raafedd holds solid claims in Newmarket’s £50,000 bet365 Mile Handicap.

William Haggas: trainer of the in-form Turquoise Diamond

William Haggas: trainer of ArchivistCredit: Edward Whitaker (racingpost.com/photos)

While More Thunder would be perceived by most as the yard’s banker, Archivist, a comfortable winner when graduating to handicaps off a mark of 90 over a mile at York last month, holds outstanding claims on his return to the Knavesmire.

The lightly raced colt is officially 2lb ‘well-in’ for a race Haggas landed with Sinjaari in 2020.

Haggas, relieved to see the favourite creep in towards the bottom of the handicap, said: “He just keeps getting better and I think he'll enjoy the step up in trip. He won nicely at the track last time.

“I didn't think he'd get in for a minute so it's great he has. He's got a nice draw and hopefully he can keep improving.”

What they say

Karl Burke, trainer of Thunder Run
The horse is in great form. We have aimed him at this race since we decided to not run him at Royal Ascot. The draw hasn’t done him any favours.

Harry Charlton, trainer of Hand Of God
The drop back in trip will suit. William [Buick] felt that he didn’t get home over a mile and a half at Ascot after travelling very well. It’s very competitive, but he looks set to run a nice race. Stall nine should work well, and it’s nice to get a good, experienced jockey in Danny Tudhope on a day when it isn’t easy to do so.

Harry Charlton: trainer of Hand Of GodCredit: Edward Whitaker (racingpost.com/photos)

Steve Brown, assistant to Julie Camacho, trainer of Naqeeb
We were delighted with him at Ascot and feel the step back in trip is worth exploring as he travels so well in his races. It’s a very competitive race, but he’s not without a chance. Stall 13 looks manageable.

Adam Ryan, assistant to Kevin Ryan, trainer of Dark Moon Rising
He's doing well and he loves York. He loves a good pace to aim at, but he'll need to step up on the form he's shown. If there's one place he can do that then it's here.

Charlie Johnston, trainer of Qitaal
I made the entry a couple of months ago and, I have to admit, his form hasn't been going the right way in the interim. I didn't expect him to get in. We've put a visor on him because he was a little bit going through the motions at Ayr on Sunday. He's a good horse who's well handicapped, but he probably wants a bit more dig in the ground.
Reporting by Richard Birch

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