'We've all got Shaquille to beat' - can anyone lower the colours of hot favourite in Sprint Cup?

In sprints, even at the highest level, you don't need much to go wrong for your betting slip to turn into scrap paper – which is precisely why Shaquille's ability to overcome ruinously slow starts to win Group 1s on his last two runs has caught so much attention.

Turn that high variance in sprints on its head. Does Shaquille deserve to be a shade of odds-on for the Betfair Sprint Cup? Even if he breaks on terms and immediately goes, say, 4-6, is that the right price? It is rare to see horses go off so short for races like this.

In the 91 Group 1 sprints run in Britain and Ireland since 2010, only seven have featured an odds-on favourite. They have tended to come in fields smaller than the average, which is 15. And, for what it is worth, the majority have lost.

Shaquille is priced up as though he is dominant. Racing Post Ratings give him a clear edge of 4lb. That follows from there being only one other open-age Group 1 winner in the field, shock Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee winner Khaadem.

Plenty have gone close, while Lezoo won a Group 1 as a juvenile. In all, there are eight horses within half a stone of Shaquille on the weight-adjusted ratings.

More than half the field are entitled to finish within a couple of lengths, and many of them are open to at least as much improvement as the favourite.

Sacred and Saint Lawrence have both got within half a length of Group 1 glory this season. The last two started 2023 effectively as handicappers. Run To Freedom has twice been second at Group 1 level, has a half-brother who won this race and another who finished third. Regional set a new track record over 5f less than three months ago.

Then there are Shaquille's fellow three-year-olds. Lezoo follows the trope of the aborted Classic campaign. She has been a sprinter all along and her win last time proved it. Mill Stream has taken the handicap route and completed his education at Deauville. In a Group 3 there last time, he thumped Garrus, who had been third in the Prix Maurice de Gheest last year.

The maximum field of 17 brings its own uncertainties. Horses will be breaking from all over Haydock's straight track and where the pace develops could be decisive.

With the pacey Swingalong in 18, it is easy to imagine a group forming against the near-side rail. Shaquille is in stall five and most of the market principals are drawn in the lower-numbered half. Few over there are habitual front runners.

Even as a long-time fan of the favourite, there are too many unknowns for me to advise backing Shaquille in an effective coin-toss versus the field. If punters agree, expect to see one or two of the others shorten up on Saturday.

As it stands, there are plenty of viable options at double-figure odds for those who like that sort of bet. Pace angle Swingalong is in that group. Purely in form terms, Lezoo and Run To Freedom are also of interest in a deceptively competitive field.
Race analysis by Keith Melrose

'He'll need to be at his best'

The 'Champions Festival' may be taking place in Ireland, but it is at Haydock that a true champion could well be crowned.

Since the Betfair Sprint Cup was first run in 1966, just eight July Cup winners have gone on to confirm their six-furlong superiority by triumphing in this Group 1 test.

Rossa Ryan celebrates after landing his first Group 1 on Shaquille

Shaquille winning the July Cup at Newmarket last timeCredit: Alan Crowhurst

Yet Shaquille is widely expected to match that feat. Having landed the Commonwealth Cup before following up at Newmarket three weeks later, he could be the first sprinter to start at odds-on for this race since Oasis Dream was beaten in 2003.

Shaquille was given a two-month break in order to be fresh for this test and is reported in fine form for his bid to complete a rare top-level hat-trick.

Trainer Julie Camacho's husband and assistant Steve Brown said: "We're looking forward to it and we're really happy with him. He seems in good form and we're seeing everything we want to see."

Brown is taking nothing for granted and said: "There are plenty of good horses in there and he'll need to be at his best, without a doubt. We're very respectful of the opposition."

Shaquille had to overcome slow starts to win at Ascot and Newmarket and Brown said: "It would be nice if we're talking about performance rather than behaviour tomorrow."

'My lad has a good chance'

This time last year Marco Ghiani had just been stood down after testing positive for a metabolite of cocaine, the prelude to a six-month ban.

The former champion apprentice has re-established himself and has genuine hopes of landing a Group 1 success on Mill Stream.

"It was a stupid mistake and I was in the wrong environment," he said of his misdemeanour and suspension. "I just stuck at riding out for everyone I could. I work hard and trained every day and counted the days until I could come back."

Marco Ghiani and Mill Stream after victory in the Prix Moonlight Cloud

Ghiani has ridden a steady stream of winners since his return in March and won both a Listed race and a Group 3 contest on the progressive Jane Chapple-Hyam-trained three-year-old Mill Stream, who was added to the field for £20,000 last Monday.

“He's in good order and he has been much more settled in his last two races in France as he wasn’t over-racing in the early stages of those races, which has been key to his last two results,” the jockey said.

Assessing Saturday's test, he said: “Shaquille is always slow out of the gates but he finds another gear late at the end. My lad jumps out fast and then he finds another gear at the end, so it will be very interesting to see what will happen. 

"Shaquille is favourite but my lad has a good chance. He seems in good order and Jane's horses are running well. I just have a vision in my head and, hopefully, that can come to life."

What they say

Ed Bethell, trainer of Regional
We've all got Shaquille to beat. I thought he ran a fantastic race in the Nunthorpe last time and this step back up in trip should suit him. Six furlongs on fast ground ought to prove ideal.

Henry Candy, trainer of Run To Freedom
He can't beat Shaquille, who is exceptional, but I'll keep trying to win a Group 1 with him. I'm just a little bit worried about the drying ground, but we'll give it a go and see how we get on. He's won on good to firm but he prefers a little cut and Ascot next month might suit him better.

Luke Morris, rider of Saint Lawrence
He's very versatile but I think the Haydock ground will be similar to when he won at Royal Ascot and that will suit him. He likes a bit of cover but he has a massive engine and I think he's got a big chance.

Karl Burke, trainer of Spycatcher (non-runner) and Swingalong
I think Swingalong is overpriced. She's in great form and if the draw is any advantage she has a chance of a place at least.

Tom Marquand, rider of Sacred
At Ascot, she was second in a Group 1 sprint and that form all lines up. Fast ground suits and it should be a similar scenario here. Shaquille is obviously very talented, but he wouldn't have to do much more wrong than he has before in order to make it too hard to win a race like this.

George Boughey, trainer of Believing
I'm very happy with her and she's a filly on the up. It looks an open race behind the favourite, she has an improving pedigree and deserves her chance in a Group 1.

Ralph Beckett, trainer of Lezoo
The flat six furlongs at Haydock will suit her and so will the fast ground.
Reporting by David Carr

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1.50 Haydock: 'It's his easiest task to date' - analysis and key quotes for Superior Mile

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3.20 Leopardstown: 'We will see a different Auguste Rodin this time' - key quotes for the Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown

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