Who wins the 2022 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes based on previous trends?

The Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (3.20) boasts an illustrious list of prior winners including Dubai Millennium, Frankel and Baaeed. We have looked back at a number of factors to see who may win Saturday's Group 1 contest.

Ratings

Seven of the last ten winners scored with an official mark above 120. The highest of those was Roaring Lion, who was rated 127 when he scored by a neck on his final start in Britain in 2018.

Persuasive, the 2017 winner, was the lowest-rated scorer in the past decade. She won off a mark of 113 against market-leaders Ribchester and Churchill, who were rated 125 and 123 respectively.

The John Gosden-trained filly was the last winner of the race ranked lower than 120, and fellow Cheveley Park runner Inspiral's rating of 121 firmly keeps her in the frame for success on Saturday.

Inspiral is one of only two runners with marks above 120. Godolphin's Modern Games is rated 1lb higher than Inspiral ahead of his first start at Ascot.

Tenebrism (114), Jadoomi (115) and The Revenant (114) may be below the winning average on ratings, but could still get competitive based on past results.

Age

No horse over the age of five has won since the first running of the race in 1970, which will come as bad news to supporters of The Revenant, who has run in the last three runnings of this contest and scored in 2020 as a five-year-old.

Now aged seven, The Revenant is up against stiff opposition, and the poor record of older horses in the race also goes against the six-year-old Tempus, who scored on his most recent outing at Ascot in July.

The Revenant: bidding to become the first horse over five to winCredit: Mark Cranham

Supplementary-entry Jadoomi could become the first four-year-old to land the race since Persuasive in 2017, but success tends to favour younger runners, with six of the last ten winners – including last year's scorer Baaeed – aged three.

Market-leaders Inspiral and Modern Games both fit the bill and could enhance the record of the Classic generation in this mile test.

Class

All winners during the last decade raced at the top level prior to British Champions Day, and seven had notched at Group 1 level going into the race.

Of those seven, five had already scored at the top level over a mile, and Inspiral, Modern Games and The Revenant all follow that trend. Tenebrism, who has two Group 1 victories to her name, scored over six and seven furlongs.

Tempus and Raadobarg have yet to run at the top level and face a stern first test in their bid to buck the trend. The rest of the field have Group 1 form.

Odds

The market tends to be a good guide for this race with single-priced runners winning all bar one of the last ten. King Of Change being the exception when scoring at 12-1 in 2019.

Frankel (2011) and Excelebration (2012) were the last odds-on favourites to land the Group 1 race and Inspiral could follow in their footsteps, with the Coronation Stakes winner a general 10-11 shot for Saturday.

Frankel: won as odds-on favourite of the race in 2011Credit: Alan Crowhurst

Verdict

The leading fancies should go close based on previous trends, but the pick has to be .

Modern Games should present a formidable rival if bringing his international form, but Charlie Appleby is yet to land this Group 1 contest.

Inspiral suffered her first defeat this year at Newmarket following a quick turnaround from Royal Ascot, but with a break since August she should in a prime position to follow up on her Prix Jacques le Marois victory on similar good to soft conditions.

Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (3.20 Saturday, Ascot)

Coral: 10-11 Inspiral, 7-2 Modern Games, 5 The Revenant, 13-2 Jadoomi, 20 bar

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