'Good to firm or firm would be no good for her'- is Minnie Hauk's Yorkshire Oaks task set to get even easier?

An easy task for Minnie Hauk in the Pertemps Network Yorkshire Oaks could get even easier if there is quick ground at the Knavesmire on Thursday.

The star three-year-old filly is unbeaten since finishing second on her debut at Cork in October and completed the Irish and British Oaks double. She is the 1-3 favourite to win a third Group 1 next week.

Fast conditions would rule out her principal rival Estrange, who is as short as 3-1, with her trainer David O'Meara currently on weather watch to see whether the grey takes her chance.

“I wish there was a bit more rain in the forecast,” he said on Friday. “I’d be almost certain she wouldn’t run on quick ground. If there was no firm in the description we’d be fine – good is all right – but good to firm or firm would be no good for her."

Chris Richardson, representing Estrange's owners Cheveley Park Stud, recently suggested the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe and Champion Fillies & Mares Stakes at Ascot on Qipco British Champions Day were among the chief end-of-season aims for the filly.

Although O'Meara still hopes plenty of rain arrives and his stable star runs at York, he could end up taking on another Aidan O'Brien hotpot in Whirl en route to a possible Arc bid.

He said: “If the forecast changes we might be lucky, but we’ll see. We’ll probably look at the Prix Vermeille if not – and running into good horses is always going to happen at this level."

Estrange: doubts over grey's participationCredit: John Grossick (racingpost.com/photos)

Alongside Minnie Hauk, the Pretty Polly and Nassau Stakes winner Whirl was one of six confirmations for Thursday's feature event, but will seemingly head to Longchamp on September 7 instead. O'Brien could still field the Prix de Diane runner-up Bedtime Story and Ribblesdale winner Garden Of Eden.

The Prix de Malleret winner Qilin Queen completes the potential line-up for Lambourn trainer Ed Walker. She finished 13 lengths behind Minnie Hauk at Epsom in June, but beat a hot favourite in the Francis Graffard-trained Sunly last time.

There will be no French representation this year as that filly and last year’s Arc second Aventure were both scratched. The Lillie Langtry winner Waardah, January, Tasmania and You Got To Me were also removed from the race.

O'Brien has won four of the last five Yorkshire Oaks with Love (2020), Snowfall (2021), Warm Heart (2023) and Content (2024). The Sir Mark Prescott-trained Alpinista warmed up for her Arc victory in 2022.

Minnie Hauk would need to be supplemented for the Arc and is an intended runner in the Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown on September 13 next.

Pertemps Network Yorkshire Oaks (3.35 York, August 21)
bet365 1-3 Minnie Hauk, 9-2 Estrange, 8 Qilin Queen, Whirl, 12 Garden Of Eden, 25 Bedtime Story

Who are the potential dangers for Minnie Hauk?

History tells us it would be foolish to consider this a penalty kick for Minnie Hauk and to dismiss the other Ballydoyle contenders.

Although she is the clear pick on known form, Aidan O'Brien has had favourites Found (2016) and Savethelastdance (2023) beaten by lesser-fancied stablemates Seventh Heaven and Warm Heart in the last decade.

Provided Whirl does not line up, the pick of the opposition could be Bedtime Story, who was unbeaten in her first four starts, including the Chesham Stakes at Royal Ascot and Group 2 Debutante Stakes last year. She is rated higher than Garden Of Eden, who disappointed in Germany last time. 

Bedtime Story disappointed in two Group 1 events after her winning spree, but has looked on the way back to her best this season, finishing a staying-on sixth to Zarigana in the French 1,000 Guineas before finding only Gezora too strong when upped to ten furlongs in the Prix de Diane.

Bedtime Story (nearest): not to be underestimated in the Yorkshire OaksCredit: Caroline Norris

It could be that she did not enjoy the testing conditions in the Nassau Stakes last time, when she beat only one horse home behind Whirl, but a return to her previous form would be enough to secure a decent slice of prize-money.

The step up to a mile and a half could also bring out improvement as she is by Frankel, whose progeny can improve for more of a stamina test. She certainly shaped that way when second in the French Classic in June. 

She has 6lb to find with Minnie Hauk, but could find at least a bit of that if presented with a decent pace.

Newmarket duo to clash again

The second and third from the Duchess of Cambridge Stakes could renew rivalry in the Sky Bet Lowther Stakes earlier in the card.

Royal Fixation was a neck second to the Albany winner Venetian Sun in the Group 2 on the July course at Newmarket and may face a rematch with the reliable Argentine Tango, who was last seen locking horns with the Nunthorpe-bound Lady Iman at Goodwood.

The Dragon Stakes winner Staya and unbeaten Dandana were among the 12 fillies left in the contest.

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