Can anyone derail the Paddington express? Assessing the key contenders for the Juddmonte International at York
York's Ebor festival is just a week away – and it is set to start with a bang. The Juddmonte International (3.35) is the pick of next Wednesday's action with arguably the finest three-year-old in training, Paddington, looking to notch up the latest win of an incredible season. Can anyone stop Aidan O'Brien's superstar? Here, we assess the main contenders for a clash to savour on the Knavesmire . . .
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Paddington
Form: 111111
Prospects: The summer of Paddington is still in full swing. By far and away the best three-year-old in Britain and Ireland, Aidan O'Brien's superstar has been on a one-horse demolition spree this year, racking up six wins in a row since March including four Group 1s – the Irish 2,000 Guineas, the St James's Palace Stakes, the Coral-Eclipse and most recently the Sussex Stakes at Glorious Goodwood.
The Juddmonte is set to be next on his agenda, and could be a stepping stone for a crack at the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe in October. Paddington has been a joy to watch during a golden season, with his class matched by his determination to get the job done. It is hard to see past him winning again at York, and while his participation in the Arc remains in the balance, it would be brilliant for the sport if he lined up at Longchamp.
Best odds: 5-4f
What they say
Aidan O'Brien, trainer (after the Sussex Stakes): "He's a much quicker horse than Giant's Causeway ever was. He's thriving unbelievably between runs which is very unusual really. He just looks very different at the moment. Everyone is very happy with him and how he's come out of the race. I think the Juddmonte at York is a definite possibility. We will give him a week to ten days to get back up to full work again and then see how he is, but it's definitely a possible."
Mostahdaf
Form: 10-141
Prospects: The five-year-old Mostahdaf broke his Group 1 duck at the fourth attempt when he landed the Prince of Wales's Stakes at Royal Ascot. While Paddington has been campaigned relentlessly, Mostahdaf has had a much quieter year after he finished the last of 20 runners in the 2022 Arc, running in Riyadh and Meydan in February and March before his British return in June.
With Shadwell's retained jockey Jim Crowley serving a 20-day ban, Frankie Dettori will have a rare ride in the famous silks to add a touch more stardust to the race. Mostahdaf will have his work cut out against Paddington, but a reproduction of his dazzling display in the Prince of Wales's will give him a serious chance of causing an upset at York.
Best odds: 7-2
What they say
Thady Gosden, joint-trainer: "Mostahdaf won in Saudi at the start of the year over a mile and a quarter, and won a very solid Prince of Wales's at Ascot. He won well and has had a nice break in between the two. He has a low, good action, so he enjoys a faster racing surface. The Juddmonte is always a very competitive field but he's in good order."
Desert Crown
Form: 1/11-2
Prospects: It has been such a shame Desert Crown's ability is matched by his fragility – the stunning winner of the 2022 Derby has only been seen in action four times in his career, with just one run since his Epsom success. The Sir Michael Stoute-trained four-year-old made his long-awaited return at Sandown in May in the Brigadier Gerard and was beaten half a length by Hukum – form which now doesn't read too badly following his conqueror's subsequent win in the King George.
Potential reappearances at Royal Ascot and then in the King George were cancelled due to setbacks, with a leg infection ruling him out of a rematch with Hukum in July. Surely the biggest question mark over Desert Crown's Juddmonte prospects is whether or not he will actually turn up, but if he does, and if he can rekindle the flame of old, then he would be firmly in the picture.
Best odds: 5-1
What they say
Bruce Raymond, racing manager to owner Saeed Suhail (on July 27): "He has a leg infection and we’ll go to York with him now. It happened yesterday, would you believe it? He’s in good shape and everything else is going well, it's just bad timing for Ascot. I don’t think it’s bad – it’s not a broken leg or a fracture, it’s just an infection and Michael said he wouldn’t be declaring him for the King George."
Who else is in the mix?
Connections of the Derby second King Of Steel have suggested the Irish Champion Stakes is more likely to be his next destination rather than the Juddmonte, while it is doubtful the Derby winner Auguste Rodin, who flopped in the King George, will take on stablemate Paddington. Alflaila is another set to miss the Group 1, with Shadwell unlikely to pitch him in against main hope Mostahdaf. Pyledriver's participation is also up in the air with his joint-trainer William Muir this week saying he could head to Kempton or go straight to the Arc in October. Bay Bridge is entered at York but is without a win since last year's Champions Day at Ascot, while impressive Falmouth winner Nashwa would be looking to bounce back from her Nassau defeat at Glorious Goodwood where she was unfavoured by the soft ground.
Verdict
This is Paddington's world, and we're just living in it. He has been the undisputed star of the Flat season and he is a couple of wins away from cementing his legacy as an all-time great. If he can add a fifth Group 1 of the year to his already glittering CV at York then the Arc dream would draw tantalisingly closer. There has been a relatively short turnaround since Goodwood but durability seems to be one of his hallmarks and he can get the job done – again – in the Juddmonte.
Juddmonte International, 3.35 York, August 23
Paddy Power: 5-4 Paddington, 3 Mostahdaf, 5 Desert Crown, 15-2 King Of Steel, 10 Alflaila, 14 bar
Read these next:
York expecting big crowds for 'fantastic' Ebor week with Paddington among star-studded cast
Paddington now a genuine Arc contender - three things we learned this week
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