Is the decrease in home wins in the Premier League the new normal?

It has been a topsy-turvy Premier League season and one peculiar aspect of the campaign has been the fall in the number of home wins.

Clubs have won in front of their own fans 39.5 per cent of the time this season, the second-lowest rate in the 30 seasons since the division was reduced to 20 teams.

Prior to this season the average was 46 per cent and only the Covid-affected 2020-21 season has seen a lower rate of 37.9 per cent.

Empty stadiums are an obvious explanation for that pandemic-struck campaign so what is the reason this time around and is it likely to last?

Paddy Power Betfair senior trader Mikey Mumford highlights the attacking output of teams on the road saying: "The new directives to combat minutes lost is resulting in more additional time and perhaps this is benefiting away teams, who are scoring more goals than ever before."

In the ten seasons prior to 2024-25, home advantage had been worth about 0.3 goals per game, with the average score being 1.55-1.25 to the hosts. Their supremacy rises to 0.34 goals per game if you discount the behind-closed-doors season but this term the margin is only 0.04 goals per game in favour of the hosts.

Increased playing time last season saw an increase in goals at both ends of the pitch, with an average scoreline of 1.8-1.5, but this term only the away sides have maintained that increase.

It is possible that an increase in quality throughout the league, coupled with shifts in tactics and mentality, mean teams are being more aggressive on the road, helping stimulate their increased returns.

The fall in home goals is a bit more puzzling although it is worth noting that home sides are very slightly undershooting their expected-goals numbers, having traditionally overshot them, so perhaps we will see their conversion tick up in the remaining weeks.

Nottingham Forest, Fulham, Crystal Palace, Bournemouth and Brighton rank between third and seventh for points won on the road. 

Their improvement to a level where they can regularly bloody the noses of the traditional heavyweights, who have been stretched by enlarged European competitions, has been the story of the season.

Overall the traditional 'big six' – Manchester City, Liverpool, Arsenal, Chelsea, Manchester United and Tottenham – have seen their win rate drop from 60 per cent last term to 50 per cent. A 13 per cent decline in the home-win rate is doing the heavy lifting, compared to a six per cent drop on the road.

The accompanying graph shows that their drop has been more stark than the rest of the division.

Manchester City's three Etihad Stadium losses match their total from the last three seasons combined while Manchester United and Spurs have each lost seven games at home.

VAR's ability to mitigate against referees being swayed by a home crowd has been offered as one possible explanation. If that was the main reason, though, you might have expected the trend to show up in earlier seasons, especially as the on-field decision has been upheld more often this term.

Part of the explanation could just be randomness and variance. Converting the bet365 closing prices for each game into win percentages, and adjusting for overround, reveals that we would have expected to see about 120 home wins this season, 13 more than the actual total of 107.

Simulating each game's percentage 10,000 times gives us the following graph and indicates that, according to the odds, we should expect to see more home wins 96 per cent of the time.

It is unlikely to have quite so few home wins, but not unbelievable. Once you’ve had enough seasons, some of them will be outliers just through chance, and four per cent shots do win.

The struggle of home sides naturally means it has been profitable to bet on travelling teams. Backing them blind would have returned a profit of £14.36 to £1 level stakes, although that return on investment of 5.3 per cent is less than the 22.2 per cent in the Covid-affected 2020-21 season.

The struggles of the 'big six' can help boost that figure as the ROI of all the non-big six on the road is 11.4 per cent and backing the top dogs away from home returns minus 8.4 per cent.

Just blindly backing the away team when a big-six team is at home has been the most profitable angle, providing 18 per cent returns.

Of course, just because that has been the case so far this term doesn't mean it will continue. Manchester City not being in Europe, for example, may boost them going forward.

Oddsmakers appear to have prioritised adjusting each team's individual rating rather than a general re-weighting of homefield advantage.

The average away price of about 10-3 is the second-shortest behind 2020-21, but closer to most other seasons rather than the one played behind closed doors, and there hasn't been noteworthy adjustment throughout the season.

The graph plots the median average away team odds for each gameweek and, while there is some fluctuation depending on the fixtures, the trend is steady.

In terms of what is likely to happen from now until the end of the season, it is noteworthy that in each of the last six campaigns the win rate for home sides has been higher from gameweek 28 onwards compared to the earlier part of the season. The average rise is 3.6 per cent as perhaps motivation levels play a part.

It is likely that what we have witnessed so far is partly variance but the increased parity in the league, as demonstrated by the competitiveness of mid-table teams, means it is worth monitoring.

The trend for home struggles hasn't obviously been replicated in the major European leagues although the Bundesliga has seen a rise in away wins this term. We may see some regression in the coming weeks but perhaps not to 'usual' levels.

Read more from Simon Giles:

Manchester United boss Amorim targets slow-burning success rather than a quick fix 

Forest's European prospects remain healthy despite their tough upcoming run 

Trophy-chasing Newcastle must maintain impressive form against the top teams 

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