The Oaks is a glaring omission on Charlie Appleby's glittering CV - can Desert Flower help him complete the Classic set?

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Only a month ago, we were asking: why hasn't John Gosden won a 2,000 Guineas? And he still hasn't, although Field Of Gold's run counts as a thundering shot off the bar, one that might easily have found the target on another day.

Now, there's another trainer to worry about. Charlie Appleby has the hot favourite for Friday's Betfred Oaks (4.00), a race he has never won. 

It's pretty easy to not win the Oaks, of course - the trainer's table is stuffed with those who have never come close. But Appleby's case is different, because he is so well supplied with the sort of raw material that anyone else would love to get, and also because he has had no difficulty winning other major middle-distance prizes.

In his 12-year career, he's won all the other British Classics, and has two Derbys to his name. He's also won the Coronation Cup, the Eclipse, the York International and the King George. 

Desert Flower: won the 1,000 GuineasCredit: John Grossick (racingpost.com/photos)

Elsewhere, his triumphs include the Irish Derby, the Grand Prix de Paris, the Grosser Preis von Baden, the Sheema Classic and three runnings of the Breeders' Cup Turf. He's also been good at fillies' races other than the Oaks, winning the Nassau, the Opera, the Diana and the Filly & Mare Turf at the Breeders' Cup.

There's something about the Oaks that's been tripping him up. Perhaps he hasn't yet hit on the right type for the race.

As Godolphin's trainer, he's naturally been handling lots of sons and daughters of Dubawi, a hugely important and successful stallion but nonetheless one who has found Epsom hard to conquer. The Dermot Weld-trained Ezeliya in last year's Oaks was the first of Dubawi's kids to win an Epsom Classic; she was from his 15th crop.

Appleby's six Oaks runners so far have all been either by Dubawi or out of a Dubawi mare. Friday's favourite, Desert Flower, is slightly different - she's by a son of Dubawi, Night Of Thunder. Is that enough of a difference to make all the difference?

When we look at what happened to Appleby's Oaks contenders, I think we're getting a foretaste of what will go wrong for Desert Flower. Let's start with the two who came closest:

2nd Wild Illusion 2018

How did she not win this? Wild Illusion was a quality filly. She'd won the Boussac and would go on to land the Nassau and the Opera later. At Epsom, she got turned over by a horse who never won any other race, Forever Together.

Wild Illusion: narrowly missed out in 2018Credit: Edward Whitaker (racingpost.com/photos)

The answer is probably that she didn't see out the trip as strongly as the winner, with soft going and her tendency to race keenly working against her. It was one of those years when the Oaks field came across to the stands' side in search of better ground, and Forever Together got to the faster strip of ground before her rival; mind you, she won convincingly enough to suggest the strip of ground was not solely decisive.

Wild Illusion only had one other race at 1m4f, getting beaten by Magic Wand in the Ribblesdale. On stepping back to 1m2f, she won her next two starts.

2nd Dance Sequence 2024

In common with one or two of the others on this list, Dance Sequence didn't seem to appreciate Epsom's undulations, over-raced and couldn't sustain her effort all the way to the line. But this was clearly a big run, as she made rapid progress through the 12-strong field at the top of the straight while hanging over to the far rail.

Only Ezeliya could stay with her, the two daughters of Dubawi pulling clear and the Irish filly finally asserting in the final furlong. This was a big chance for Dance Sequence, who was then last in the Prix de Diane and a weak-finishing seventh in a Group 3.

Dance Sequence: chased home Ezeliya in the OaksCredit: Alan Crowhurst (Getty Images)

5th Skiffle 2016

Another keen-racing daughter of Dubawi who didn't get home, Skiffle still made a big impression here. Initially held up, she cruised forwards stylishly around the edge of the field on the long turn for home and was a looming second as they straightened up.

You might have called her the most likely winner at the three pole. Then she came off the bridle and was immediately toiling. Minding swept past, Skiffle was beaten 24 lengths.

7th Eternal Hope 2023

Stamina can't have been the issue for this one, who'd won the Lingfield Oaks Trial at 1m4f and would continue to run well at about that distance. But it was a difficult race in which to make her turf debut and it didn't work out brilliantly for her.

She travelled well enough in rear as far as the home turn but was then pushed along and dropped out.

8th Sobetsu 2017

This one's major misfortune was being born in the same year as Enable, which meant her chance in the Oaks was practically zero. But she didn't help herself, being another daughter of Dubawi inclined to race rather keenly when going at 1m4f pace.

Sobetsu (left): had to take on EnableCredit: Patrick McCann (racingpost.com/photos)

A handy second for much of the way, she moved towards the lead at the three pole but was then engulfed by Enable and others.

11th With The Moonlight 2022

In her three seasons, the Oaks turned out to be her worst performance apart from her very first outing. She raced prominently, a little keenly, and dropped out quickly from the two pole.

The 1m4f was against her but she repeatedly showed classy form at 1m2f afterwards.

What does this mean for Desert Flower?

Stamina has been a repeated problem for Charlie Appleby's Oaks runners and the risk of Desert Flower having the same problem is pretty obvious. While she's a strong stayer at a mile, she has never raced beyond it and she's the product of two parents who were best at a mile; Night Of Thunder was a non-stayer on his only attempt at 1m2f, Promising Run was fine at 1m1f but not much further.

The first half-mile will be important. Desert Flower could give herself half a chance by settling kindly in midfield. But she broke very alertly in the Guineas and there's a risk that, finding herself loping along at 1m4f pace for the first time, she may want to go faster.

Not every Oaks is a thorough test of stamina. Perhaps there may be few in the field who truly stay 1m4f. 

But 13-8 about Desert Flower looks short, considering the obvious stamina question. Has Charlie Appleby found his Oaks winner yet? I don't think so.

Read these next:

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'Ryan gave him a masterclass' - more Classic delight for Aidan O'Brien as Moore and Camille Pissarro deliver in French Derby 

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