Was the Supreme time too good to be true? Festival opener's form is put to the test by third-placed Romeo Coolio

Just how good a race was the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham last month? That is a question that has been lingering in my head since Kopek Des Bordes won the festival opener.

If you follow times then you’ll already have a definitive answer and the clock doesn’t lie, right? Kopek Des Bordes won the Supreme in a time 4.08 seconds quicker than Golden Ace in the Champion Hurdle, which puts Kopek Des Bordes in excess of 18 lengths ahead of her.

However, both before and after the Supreme I felt that it was a weak race in comparison to recent years. Kopek Des Bordes did loads wrong and put in a distinctly average round of jumping but still won, while runner-up William Munny and third-placed Romeo Coolio have now been beaten more times than they have won. They aren’t anything special, are they?

Gordon Elliott: trainer of Romeo CoolioCredit: Edward Whitaker

Our own Mark Holder thinks they are. He used the same time comparison in his column this week to suggest that Romeo Coolio would have won the Champion Hurdle by around seven lengths had he run in it. He would also have beaten State Man, had he stood up, by that logic.

It may be a fact judged purely on time, but I just don’t believe it. There is something fishy about that Supreme time and I’ll wager that the race doesn’t work out as well as many think.

I’ve gone over it a few times and the possible explanation which holds the most weight is that maybe the Supreme runners got the best of the ground. They certainly ran when it was at its freshest, for the first race of the festival, and the best three times were the first three that day.

It’s also possible that the way the race was run created the best possible platform for the horses to go on and record a quick time, or maybe the following wind was stronger for the first three races than the rest of them. Those are less likely explanations, but plausible.

A victory for Romeo Coolio, Salvator Mundi or Karbau, who were in the line-up for the Supreme, would go a little way towards dispelling my doubts but sometimes the clock does lie and I like to think that I have an eye for when it does. This race may tell us whether it did.
Analysis by Graeme Rodway

Elliott: Romeo Coolio has a great chance

Gordon Elliott is convinced about the strength of the performance by Romeo Coolio in the Supreme Novices' Hurdle and thinks it gives him every chance of compensation at Aintree.

The six-year-old, who was a Grade 1 winner at Leopardstown in December, heads the betting after finishing third behind Kopek Des Bordes at Cheltenham last month.

Elliott said: "I was disappointed he didn't win the Supreme, but the more times I have watched the replay the better his run gets. He hit the line really well and he had every right to finish weaker than he did after the front two passed him. 

"It was a great run. He's a strong stayer over this trip and he goes there with a great chance. He looks brilliant at home."

The market suggests that Tripoli Flyer is his main rival and Fergal O'Brien's runner, who missed his Cheltenham engagement, comes here on the back of three successive wins.

O'Brien said: "Romeo Coolio is the one to beat on ratings, but he's in great form and I'm really looking forward to running him.

"He's been brilliant for us all season and hopefully he can continue that form. We've been really happy with him at home and I'm sure he'll turn up and do his best. The break won't have done him any harm as he's coming here fresh and well." 

What they say

Lucinda Russell, trainer of Jet To Vegas
I absolutely love him. We had discussions over whether to run him in this or the Mersey over two and a half miles because he definitely stays, but he's a very fast, slick jumper so we've gone for this. His Kelso win was very impressive and if he can step up he might have a squeak.

Dan Skelton, trainer of Royal Infantry
We gave his wind a tinkering with after his last run so hopefully that works. He's got to leave behind that disappointing run but we feel like we've got him prepared to do so. He deserves his place in these Graded races.

Ben Pauling, trainer of Diva Luna
We were delighted with her run at Cheltenham and she's come out of the race well. She won at this meeting last year, so the track suits, and she's in good form. The Cheltenham-Aintree proximity is something you don't know if they'll handle or not, but she goes there well in herself. It's a very competitive race but it's not out of her reach if she turns up on her A-game.
Reporting by Liam Headd

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