Troublesome trends suggest it may not all be plain sailing for leading Arc fancy Whirl in stacked Prix Vermeille

It is not news to most people in racing that the Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe has bestowed its favour towards fillies and mares over the colts somewhat unequally in recent seasons, and so the Prix Vermeille (3.25) should be a key – perhaps the key – stopping point en route to Europe's middle-distance championship race. 

Last year the one-two from the Vermeille filled the same two places in the Arc and the cast for this year's running could see another high-calibre candidate or three emerge from Whirl, Gezora and Aventure.

Recent Vermeille history has the battle between the three-year-olds and their elders as a virtual toss-up, with the younger generation edging the last 20 years 11-9, although it's been 6-4 to those aged four and upwards in the last decade. 

But the Vermeille has proved something of a graveyard this century for those who have run in that year's Classics.

France's version of the Oaks, the Prix de Diane Longines over 1m2½f, should be the logical starting point in the search for the winner come Longchamp in September, yet no filly has done the double since Treve in 2013, with the last four to attempt the feat coming up short.

Treve and Frankie Dettori winning the 2013 Prix Vermeille, since when no winner of the Diane has doubled-upCredit: Getty Images

Overall, four Diane winners from 13 to try have won the Vermeille since 2000, which is far from a ringing endorsement for Gezora's chances, for all the daughter of Almanzor looks tailor-made for the step up in trip in a way that might not have been true of Sparkling Plenty or Blue Rose Cen in recent years. 

Whirl comes here off the back of Group 1 wins at the Curragh and Goodwood, and was beaten only a neck by stablemate Minnie Hauk when trying to make all in the Oaks, a race which (for no obvious reason), has an even more desperate record as a pointer to the Vermeille.

This century only Tarnawa has won the Vermeille having also run at Epsom – the Aga Khan's filly won at Longchamp in 2020, having finished 11th at Epsom in 2019 – while 21 other fillies have failed, including Oaks winners Snowfall and Tuesday; in 2019 the 1-2-3 from Epsom rocked up at Longchamp and none managed better than fifth. 

Quite aside from the difficulties the Classic fillies have experienced in this race down the years, there are some extremely talented older horses to contend with, notably Aventure, whose second behind Calandaganin the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud looks even better since his win in the King George, and Survie, who must overcome a short turnaround from the Prix Jean Romanet but has the talent to figure. 

Aventure (16) found only Bluestocking too strong in last season's ArcCredit: Alan Crowhurst

Of course, either Gezora or Whirl can buck those troublesome trends and win this race. It's just that they will be taking a large chunk out of the market and if ever there was a race that marked the changing of the seasons, then this is so often the one. 

Whirl puts Arc credentials on the line

Whirl has been one of the revelations of the season, bursting to prominence with an emphatic success in the Musidora before backing up that breakthrough performance with a narrow defeat in the Oaks and then Group 1 victories in the Pretty Polly and the Nassau. 

Once again Aidan O'Brien has elected to keep her to the company of fillies and mares here, yet a bold show could easily see her top the market for the Arc ahead of her stablemate Minnie Hauk and Kalpana, who was beaten on her prep run in the September Stakes on Saturday. Whirl finished ahead of Kalpana in the Pretty Polly Stakes on her penultimate start. 

"Whirl goes back up to a mile and a half again, but she seems to be in good form since her Goodwood run," said O'Brien, who won the Prix Vermeille with Warm Heart in 2023. 

Whirl heads to Longchamp on SundayCredit: Getty Images

Bedtime Story has endured wretched luck on each of her last three starts, with a wide draw costing her valuable ground when a running-on second to Gezora in the Diane, before she forfeited many lengths to Whirl in a Nassau started by flag and then got no run in the Jean Romanet. 

"Bedtime Story ran well at Deauville last time when she got a little bit tight for room," said O'Brien. "Ryan [Moore] thought there was a chance that she could get a mile and a half."

What they say 

Nicolas Clement, joint-trainer of Survie
She has already won the Prix de Malleret over this course and distance and, while the opposition is extremely strong, we have agreed after discussions with the owners to let her take her chance.

Christophe Ferland, trainer of Aventure
The filly is really well and while she was ready to run in the Prix Jean Romanet, we decided to focus on this race instead. She was beaten by Calandagan in the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud at a time when he was in great form, as he showed when he went on to win at Ascot. That was on proper summer ground and we know she is happy when there is some give underfoot. She comes into the autumn in good shape and the Vermeille and the Arc have been her main targets all season.

Gezora and Bedtime Story (5) will reoppose in the Prix Vermeille Credit: AFP via Getty Images

Francis Graffard, trainer of Gezora
We gave her a little spell off after her victory in the Prix de Diane. She's a lovely, sweet filly and her preparation has been perfect. She's in top form and ready for this Prix Vermeille. It's a strong field but my filly is very straightforward and she should run well.

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