'She should be a big player' - who can lay down a 1,000 Guineas marker in big-field Fred Darling?
There are historically stronger 1,000 Guineas trials than the Fred Darling. Yet the 2024 running provided the most pertinent pointer towards the Newmarket Classic, although that seemed unlikely at the time.
Folgaria ran to a Racing Post Rating of merely an average Fred Darling winner when getting the best of Regal Jubilee and Elmalka, a surprise Classic scorer 15 days later, in a bunched finish.
There is more depth to this season’s field and Simmering sets a decent standard. She began her career as a sprinter, but stretched out with encouraging efforts over further at the highest level in the autumn. Simmering is battle hardened relative to most of her rivals after six starts as a juvenile and so are her chief dangers according to the early market.
Heavens Gate (Aidan O’Brien) and Mountain Breeze (Charlie Appleby) have both run eight times and are presumed to be down the pecking order at their respective stables. Heavens Gate scraped a three-figure RPR on her penultimate run at two, while Mountain Breeze, who lacks any Classic entries, is yet to reach that level.
They can be opposed and perhaps one of the once-raced fillies can elevate themselves above the established types, just as Remarquee did two seasons ago for Ralph Beckett.
Beckett often saddles a stack of impressive maiden winners in the autumn and the well-named Bright Times Ahead looked one of them when obliging on her debut at Newmarket in November. Her sectional times read well in relation to the other 7f races on that card and double-figure odds may be generous. The concern is whether 7f is a bare minimum for her.
Analysis by Robbie Wilders
Can Soumillon strike on Simmering?
Christophe Soumillon flies in from France to take rides in both trials for owners Al Shaqab Racing, kicking off with the well fancied Simmering.
The Ollie Sangster-trained filly was the mount of Dylan Browne McMonagle for most of last year, but he is riding at the Curragh so the Belgian-born former French champion jockey will be donning familiar silks for an operation for which he won the Emir’s Sword on leading Arab Al Ghadeer in Qatar in February.
Simmering was the model of consistency last year when winning at Group 2 and Group 3 level before finishing second in the Group 1 Moyglare Stud Stakes at the Curragh.
Following that, Al Shaqab were more active at the sales last year and they are hoping to kickstart a revival this weekend. Alison Begley, racing manager to the operation, said: “The guns are reloaded you might say and we are looking forward to the new season.
"I’ve seen a lot of Simmering this spring. She looks great and has had her summer coat for about six weeks. We were deciding whether to go straight to the Guineas but this is very much a prep run for that. The ground is very much in her favour and we thought we might as well run.”
What they say
Eve Johnson Houghton, trainer of Betty Clover
She’s done well over the winter and I think she definitely needs further than what she was running over last year and may need further again. She’ll improve for the run and we’ll know where we stand with her and where to go after she’s run.
Ralph Beckett, trainer of Bright Times Ahead
She’s had a good preparation although she’s a little behind in her coat. I expect she’ll benefit from the run.
David Egan, rider of California Dreamer
She was consistent at two when she earned plenty of black type. She broke her maiden at Dundalk this year and has fitness on her side. She knows her job and will be a solid marker in the race.
Oisin Murphy, rider of Formal
I’ve not sat on her at home but I know the team are pleased with her going forward and she is wearing a hood for the first time. I won a Group 1 on her mother so hopefully we can keep the story going.
Adrian Nicholls, trainer of Maw Lam
It’s a starting point for her season and if she stays she could go for the German Guineas. If not, we could drop back for the Commonwealth Cup. It’s a deep race as the sun’s shining and it’s fast ground.
Charlie Appleby, trainer of Mountain Breeze
She got back on track out in Dubai, where the course at Meydan suited her well. She has come back to the UK in great order and brings some nice two-year-old form into the race. We are confident that she should be a big player.
Harry Eustace, trainer of Time For Sandals
We’re looking forward to running her and this will tell us where we are trip-wise. My only grumble is the draw [15] but if she were to run third or fourth we could look at the French Guineas.
Reporting by David Milnes
Read more of Saturday's previews:
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