'She did have a hard race in the Arc, which is the big question mark' - and the stats are against Kalpana too

‘All roads lead to the Arc for Kalpana’ is a notion that has been bandied about all season, so this is clearly an afterthought for a horse who is starting to look like she isn’t worth the hype.

Kalpana has gone off at 5-2 or shorter three times in five starts this year and twice been a beaten favourite, so is drinking in the last chance saloon and trying to salvage her season.

Turn the clock back 12 months and it was a different story coming off a win in the September Stakes at Kempton, a break of 42 days. Now it’s just 13 days since she was seventh in France.

So what do we know about horses who competed that recently and then came on to run on British Champions Day? The key thing to note is that there is a bit of recency bias, which means the market likes them but they have underperformed in comparison to expectations.

There have been 141 horses line up on British Champions Day who had competed between eight to 14 days before, and only ten of those have won. 

However, the expected wins (xW) (calculated by turning each SP into decimal odds, dividing the number one by them, and adding them together), comes in as high as 12.5.

Kalpana sits near the head of the market again here and has 6lb in hand of her nearest rival on BHA ratings, but we now know that Arc afterthoughts don’t offer any value when it comes to Champions Day, so don’t be drawn in by the recency bias. The better bets have had longer off.
Analysis by Graeme Rodway

What they say

Thady Gosden, joint-trainer of Danielle
She's a consistent filly who ran very well in the Lilly Langtry at Goodwood and then fourth in the Park Hill at Doncaster. A stiff mile and a half on a sound surface should play to her strengths.

David O'Meara, trainer of Estrange
She's in good form. She worked on Monday under Danny [Tudhope] and he said she felt very well, and we were very happy with her. We're looking forward to going to Ascot. Ideally we'd have had a little bit of rain but I'm sure the ground will be fine.

Andrew Balding, trainer of Kalpana
She ran better than it looked at Longchamp. The draw didn't help, and she was forced out wider than we liked, which meant she had to cover more ground than anything else. Her second in the King George was an outstanding effort. It's less than two weeks since Longchamp and she did have a hard race there, which is the big question mark, but she seems to have recovered well.

Francis Graffard, trainer of Quisisana and Latakia
They haven't worked after running over Arc weekend. Latakia will go to stud afterwards and we’ll give it a go. I think she'll be better on good ground. Quisisana came out of the Arc well and I think the ground was against her in Longchamp. I think she’s better than that and she seems to be in very good shape, so both of them will take their chance.

Aidan O'Brien, trainer of Ballet Slippers and Bedtime Story
Ballet Slippers is in good form and we hope she's come forward for her comeback. We took a chance with Bedtime Story in France, but it was probably the wrong thing. We stretched her out too far and the ground was a bit churned up. She's come out of France well, and the biggest factor is that the ground is going to be nice. She's got a lot of ability.

Owen Burrows, trainer of Waardah
We've been very pleased with her and she's had a bit of a break after Goodwood. She's done well physically since then, but she's stepping into Group 1 company and she'll have to improve again. She's still very lightly raced, though, so fingers crossed she can run well.

Joseph O'Brien, trainer of Wemightakedlongway
The course and distance should suit her well. She's been training well since her good run in France on her first run after a lay-off. It's a super-competitive race, as you'd expect, but we're hoping for a big run.
Reporting by Liam Headd

Champions Day Intel:

A 67 per cent chance? Is Trawlerman that certain to land a second Long Distance Cup? 

It's been a year of sprint shocks - so here are the big-priced horses to consider for the Champions Sprint 

Field Of Gold v Rosallion - find out what connections have to say about two of Britain's top milers 

What impact could pacemakers have on a star-studded Champion Stakes?

'I'd have liked Ombudsman to be stronger in the betting - but the only one of the big guns who might be punchdrunk is Delacroix' 

Sign up to receive On The Nose, our essential daily newsletter, from the Racing Post. Your unmissable morning feed, direct to your email inbox every morning.