Fact To File v Marine Nationale: Tom Segal, Graeme Rodway and Keith Melrose assess the big clash and are unanimous in their verdict

The Queen Mother and Ryanair Chase winners provide a clash to saviour on day one of the Punchestown festival, with bookmakers installing Fact To File as favourite over Marine Nationale in the William Hill Champion Chase (6.00).

Fact To File started the season as a potential Cheltenham Gold Cup contender, but drops back to two miles for the first time in two years and for the first time over fences. It is a big talking point, so our experts Tom Segal, Graeme Rodway and Keith Melrose assessed his suitability for the test and are unanimous in their verdict

'It's crazy to think he can't win top races over two miles'

By Tom Segal, Pricewise

Racing analysts love to pigeon hole horses into boxes. It's convenient to say this horse needs this ground or this trip and there's no doubt that there are a certain set of circumstances that ideally suits any horse.

However, top class horses are far more versatile than we give them credit for and in the end it all comes down to ability. Fact To File was the most impressive winner at the Cheltenham Festival and it wasn't that close, so to think he can't win top races over two miles is crazy.

He might not beat Marine Nationale, who is a superstar in his own right, but Fact To File is so classy that the drop back in trip will be no problem whatsoever.

'The shorter trip isn't a major concern'

By Graeme Rodway, deputy betting editor

I'm a big believer that far too much emphasis is put on trip (and ground for that matter) preferences.

Fact To File was dominant in the Ryanair and can transfer that form to a shorter trip according to our team of tipstersCredit: Edward Whitaker

Horses who are at the very top of the tree tend to go on most types of ground and are versatile regarding trip. Gaelic Warrior has been the best example this season, having been thought to be a two-mile soft-ground horse, he has proven just as effective over further on quicker conditions.

Fact To File is a better horse than him and the shorter trip isn't a major concern.

'He was a top-class bumper horse and they rarely lack for gears'

By Keith Melrose, betting editor

Tom and Graeme are right in saying trip can be overrated, but they are also being a bit glib. For a better demonstration of the marginal difference, look at Alex Yee.

In Sunday's London Marathon, Yee ran the distance only seven seconds per kilometre slower than his winning run at last year's Olympics over 10k. You could not eyeball that difference in speed, yet it extended Yee's distance fourfold.

Once you allow for the added distance in the Ryanair, Fact To File ran that race at an average of 14.86 seconds per furlong. To achieve the Racing Post standard time over two miles at Punchestown, a horse needs to average 14.83 seconds per furlong. Fact To File needs only to make a Yee-like adjustment to his pace, over a trip that is four-fifths as far as he went at Cheltenham. There is a bit more danger if they mess around and then sprint, but Fact To File was a top-class bumper horse two years ago and they rarely lack for gears.

Fact To File has it in him to go two-mile pace at Punchestown and it boils down to his frightening ability, but it's good to have your sense backed up by hard numbers.

Read more in-depth analysis of day one at Punchestown:

'Every box is ticked' - confidence behind Champion Chase hero Marine Nationale in Fact To File showdown 

Can the Brits get among the winners? We assess their chances on day one of the Punchestown festival 

'A return to anywhere near his best gives him a massive chance' - Harry Wilson's tips for every race at Punchestown on Tuesday

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