'He's come out of the Guineas well' - analysis and trainer quotes for wide-open Group 3

The winner of this race could be heavily influenced by how accurate the weather forecast is. If the predicted heavy rain arrives it would greatly favour some more than others.

The best place to start is last year's winner Mutasarref, who sets the standard and has also won a Listed race on heavy so he may not be as disadvantaged by the possible downpours as some others.

He was a four-time winner in 2024 and, despite not getting his head in front this season, his two runs haven’t signalled any diminution in his ability. He provides the sturdy bar that the younger contenders will need to pass.

One who may be capable of vaulting that bar is the much-improved three-year-old Comanche Brave. The son of Wootton Bassett was only able to bag a maiden from four runs last year, but his performances this term have indicated he could be on the verge of a Group-race breakthrough. 

He was a highly encouraging half-length second to Henri Matisse at this track on his reappearance before a fine fifth in the Irish 2,000 Guineas. Those two performances give him a strong shout, but the forecast rain could blunt his speed.

Cowardofthecounty won a Group 3 at Deauville last year and subsequently wasn’t disgraced in the Group 1 National Stakes at the Curragh. However, his two runs since then have left something to be desired and connections will be hoping first-time blinkers do the trick. 

Royal Zabeel is a Listed winner this year and makes the trip from Britain, but he appears to be more at home on an all-weather surface. Norwalk Havoc has been waiting for soft conditions but is making his reappearance. 

Ground latest

The going is good, good to firm in places. Heavy rain and thunderstorms are forecast for Thursday morning, with in excess of 20mm possible.

What they say

Jessica Harrington, trainer of Norwalk Havoc and Bluedrum
We've been waiting to run Norwalk Havoc all year and I'm just hoping we get a bit of rain. He's in great form, but he likes a bit of dig in the ground. Bluedrum is coming to herself now and she has run well at Leopardstown before.

Adrian Murray, trainer of Valiant Force
We're hoping for a big run. The forecast rain would be our only doubt.

Joseph O'Brien, trainer of Mataariki and Cowardofthecounty
Any rain that falls would help Mataariki, but she probably needs a career best. Cowardofthecounty is in good shape and we think he'll enjoy the step up to 7f. He has first-time blinkers and a nice draw [3], so we're hoping he can take a step back towards some of his top two-year-old form.

Donnacha O’Brien, trainer of Comanche Brave
He's come out of the Guineas well, but hopefully they don’t get too much rain. He should run a good race.

Johnny Murtagh, trainer of Zodiac Bear
It's a big step up in class, but he came out of his last race well. We should find out how good he is.

Michael O’Callaghan, trainer of Copacabana Sands
It looks a solid Group 3, but we're happy with our filly and she has come forward since her win. If the rain comes it will suit her.

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