Could pocket rocket Ponntos hold the key to the Abbaye from a good draw in stall two?

The draw for the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe has been the talk of the town but stall position is even more important for this Group 1 sprint because the task is much harder from a wide gate.

Since the 2010 running, and excluding those at Chantilly in 2016 and 2017, there has been one simple rule: the further from stall one a horse is drawn, the fewer rivals they tend to beat.

In that time stall one has beaten an average of 64.3 per cent of rivals and the lowest five stalls have combined to beat nearly 60 per cent (59.5). There is a significant drop-off after that, with the trend continuing to the point where those drawn in stall 19 have beaten just 35.5 per cent.

The advantage of being drawn low looks likely to be even greater this year because Ponntos is probably the fastest horse in Europe over the first couple of furlongs and he comes from stall two. That should give those positioned close to him a perfect trail into the race.

Given the huge advantage of stall one, Monteille is certain to be among the market leaders and his course-and-distance victory three weeks ago was achieved in very soft conditions.

Ground seems to be the key for Monteille, who probably found it too quick when eighth behind a few of these on good to firm in the King Charles III Stakes at Royal Ascot. However, the surface here should be suitable and connections couldn’t have wished for a better set of circumstances.

The same can be said for Australian mare Asfoora, who was back to her best when landing the Nunthorpe at York. She is drawn on the other side of Ponntos in three and will be able to follow him through, but the forecast rain sounds a note of caution.

Asfoora has won on soft ground in Australia but her best form is on quicker and quite how testing conditions down under compare with those in Europe remains open to question.

Maybe the biggest threat to those drawn inside will be the juvenile Afjan. He is in stall ten but receives upwards of 14lb from all of his rivals and looked good when winning a Group 3 for two-year-olds on very soft ground over course and distance at the end of August.

The Platinum Queen won this as a juvenile three years ago and Soldier’s Call finished third as a two-year-old in 2018. That isn’t a bad return considering that only nine have run since 2015.
Analysis by Graeme Rodway

Asfoora out to defy the rain and land rare double

When you are bidding to emulate Lochsong, you know you could be on the verge of something special. It's just a shame about the weather.

That flying filly was the last sprinter to win the Nunthorpe Stakes and the Prix de l'Abbaye in the same season, landing the five-furlong championships of Britain and France in 1993.

Asfoora bounced off the quick ground when triumphing at York in August but trainer Henry Dwyer fears slower conditions may count against her bid to complete a rare double.

Asfoora wins the Nunthorpe at YorkCredit: Edward Whitaker (racingpost.com/photos)

"The rain literally and metaphorically puts a dampener on things," he said. "But we can't do much about that, so we'll go there and hope she runs well regardless.

"She's in great order and as fit as can be. The only saving grace is that it's probably going to be a different soft to what she was exposed to at Goodwood and in Ireland, where it was chopped up and a bit sticky, whereas this will be fresh ground.

"She's obviously going to go there with a good chance and the ground was pretty firm before the rain came. We will see."

What they say

Sean Quinn, joint-trainer of Jm Jungle
We're looking forward to it. We've kept him for this since he ran a solid race in the Nunthorpe at York. It wasn't as good as Goodwood but he was drawn a little away from it. I'm not enamoured with the draw in 14 this time, but Highfield Princess won for us from the same stall two years ago. And we're not worried about the ground.

Jonathan Portman, trainer of Rumstar
He deserves to take his chance and it's all about getting it right and getting a run when he needs it. He's travelled well, but the draw in 16 is a bit of a negative.

Karl Burke, trainer of Night Raider
I'm not sure he performs to his best on very soft ground, but he doesn't have the worst draw, in the middle. He seems in good form and I hope he can run well. He has sheepskins on for the first time, which will be a help.

Nemone Routh, racing manager to the Aga Khan Studs, owners of Rayevka
The draw [19] is not what we wanted for her. She’s a sprinter with a turn of foot and, while she seems to handle soft, I don’t think she’d want it really testing. With a better draw we’d be confident of a big run.

William Knight, trainer of Frost At Dawn
I'm looking forward to seeing her run. She's been training well and this has been the plan since the Nunthorpe. They've been getting rain but it has 24 hours to dry and that track is going to be fresh ground. She's got a good draw [4], it looks like quite a few fancied horses are around her. She goes there with every chance. If she runs to her Ascot or Nunthorpe form she's going to be bang up there.

William Haggas, trainer of First Instinct & Sky Majesty
Sky Majesty will enjoy the rain but she can’t win from 15. Mabs Cross won the Abbaye from 13 and Highfield Princess from 14 but they were mature, strong fillies. First Instinct is 18 of 19 and it’s very, very difficult.

Ed Walker, trainer of Mgheera
I'm concerned about the weather but it would probably have to be heavy ground for her not to run. I'm very happy about the draw and she's in flying form. She's not been far away and it's exciting.
Reporting by David Carr

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