A 67 per cent chance? Is Trawlerman that certain to land a second Long Distance Cup?

At what price is Trawlerman a bet? That is the conundrum which faces punters in this opener because we all know that he is by far the most likely winner but, if we take a guess at his odds being around 1-2 and turn it into a percentage chance, he is 67 per cent likely to win.

I don’t think he is that certain to come out on top and you only have to look at last year’s race to see why. He finished a length and a half behind stablemate Sweet William on that occasion and, while he has beaten that rival twice this season, Sweet William might still be yet to peak.

Sweet William’s RPRs have improved on each of his last three runs, but Trawlerman was 2lb below his peak when landing the Lonsdale Cup at York and has been away for 57 days since.

Then there’s Al Qareem. Everyone thinks that Ascot is Trawlerman’s playground, but Al Qareem has a better record here, having beaten 93 per cent of the rivals he has faced at the track. Trawlerman lags behind that at 79 per cent and Al Qareem need only prove he stays.

Throw in a couple of Ballydoyle three-year-olds who are totally unexposed over this far and open to any amount of improvement, and we have even more jokers in the pack. Trawlerman might win, but a 67 per cent chance? Even a basic grasp of maths tells me it isn’t that certain.
Analysis by Graeme Rodway

What they say

Thady Gosden, joint-trainer of Sweet William and Trawlerman
Trawlerman has been in good order since winning the Lonsdale Cup at York and it's a race and track he knows well. This has been the plan with him all season and he couldn't be in better form at home. He'll enjoy the better ground this year and goes there with a favourite's chance. Sweet William won the Doncaster Cup very well and came out of that in such good shape that it made sense to give him another run in this. He has run well in the race before and hopefully can be in the shake-up again.

Aidan O'Brien, trainer of Saratoga and Stay True
Saratoga is in good form and ran okay at Naas last weekend. We felt Stay True was barely ready to go at York, but improved a bit in the St Leger. He got a little tired but we'll learn a lot about him here. We think he's come forward again. He's lovely and straightforward and it'll be interesting to see how he gets on against the older horses. We'll get a feel for him for next year.
Reporting by James Stevens

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