Will Summerghand finally come out on top in an ultra-competitive Great St Wilfrid?

While the greatest value is in finding angles that few others have spotted, the strongest signal tends to come from the most obvious places. Horses who won last time will go off at short prices, and the best way to predict what will happen in a given race this year is often what happened last year.

In the 2023 Great St Wilfrid, the runners congregated into two groups on either rail. The closer you raced to a rail and to the pace, the better your chances were. Summerghand stuck to the far rail, while Wobwobwob led the group on the stands' side. They finished second and third to Sophia's Starlight, who led the field overall from halfway.

We can expect another Great St Wilfrid run as effectively two separate races. Last year's placed runners are both back again, but this time they are both on the same side.

Summerghand is in stall 18 of 19, one off the stands' rail. He will likely sit off the pace, as usual. Wobwobwob is a little further away in 15 and PJ McDonald may well try to get across to track the pace on that side. The likeliest source of that pace is Mr Wagyu, who is right on the rail in stall 19.

The pace on the far side is not so close to the running rail. Kitai (stall two) worked newly adopted forceful tactics into a win at Goodwood last time. Yet more established front-runners like Radio Goo Goo (seven) and Emperor Spirit (ten) have much further to travel to bag the rail. Any delay in organising on that side could concede a vital advantage.

If you are more confident than I am in the high numbers holding sway, combination forecasts and tricasts on runners on that side could be a viable play. Mr Wagyu, Summerghand and Wobwobwob are all bankable sorts in races like this.

Furthermore, Dare To Hope (16) has been first and second on his two visits to Ripon and remains in better form than his Stewards' Cup tenth implies. Monks Dream (17) has not run since November but has clear potential from a mark of 82 and, as a grandson of Lochangel, has late-blooming sprinter stamped on his profile. Stablemate Manila Scouse (14) won at a Racing League meeting last week.

If you are playing in the exotics, keep the stakes modest. The first lesson of Great St Wilfrids gone by is that, while we know you need to be near a rail, which rail that should be is usually determined by the much harder calculation of finding the strongest early pace.
Race analysis by Keith Melrose

Can Summerghand become a St Wilfrid great?

Popular veteran Summerghand has plundered plenty of big prizes in his career, but he bids once again to land one that has so far eluded him.

The David O'Meara-trained ten-year-old has been successful in Group and Listed company during his fine career and has been a mainstay in big-field handicaps, including glory in the Ayr Gold Cup and Stewards' Cup.

However, he has been denied in three attempts at the Great St Wilfrid, including his head defeat behind Sophia's Starlight when sent off the 9-2 favourite a year ago. He must also bounce back from finishing down the field in the Stewards' Cup at Glorious Goodwood this month.

Summerghand: topweight bidding to bag another big prize

Summerghand: has a fourth crack at this raceCredit: John Grossick (racingpost.com/photos)

O'Meara said: "He's in good form and was unlucky not to finish closer in the Stewards' Cup last time. He's got a nice draw this time and has run well in this before.

"He's not getting any younger, but we hope he hasn't lost a yard of pace and that he'll get the luck this time too."

What they say

Tim Easterby, trainer of Manila Scouse and Monks Dream
Both of them seem to be in good form. Manila Scouse has come out of a good win at Chepstow last time in good order and he likes a fast six furlongs, so the track will suit him. Monks Dream is coming back from a long winter break, but he looks amazing and we're looking forward to running him again.

Sean Quinn, joint-trainer of Mr Wagyu
He looked to have a tough task the last day at Goodwood in the Stewards' Cup, where nothing from where he was drawn got into the race, so that run is best excused. He seems to have always liked this track and has a more favourable draw in stall 19 this time.

Adrian Keatley, trainer of Wobwobwob
He ran well in this last year and we know he likes the track. It was a decent enough run at Goodwood last time, as he was over on the far side while those who got closer came down the centre. If the ground isn't too quick, he has a chance.

Robert Cowell, trainer of Emperor Spirit
He's drawn in the middle in stall ten, so he could go either side and would have an each-way shout in a competitive race, as it always is.

Craig Lidster, trainer of Almarada Prince
He's fresh and in good order. The surface was just too slow for him at Newcastle last time, and this'll be the most undulating track he's gone on to date, but if he handles it, he has a chance.

Richard Hannon, trainer of Aramram
He’s a smart colt and ran well last week at Ascot, where the ground was plenty quick enough. He’s drawn in stall one, which is supposed to be an advantage in big fields, and I can easily see him running a big race at decent odds.

Mick Appleby, trainer of Kitai
She seems to be in good order and it was nice to see her win at Goodwood last time, as she's progressed with each run for us. It's her first run at the track, and if she handles its undulations, then she should run well.
Reporting by Matt Rennie

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