'She's in great form' - who will prove most forward at this stage? Analysis and quotes for wide-open Kempton Listed race

The biggest factor in determining the outcome of early season fillies’ and mares’ races is invariably how well the individual has done over the winter.

Paddock critics attempting to find the winner will focus on those fillies who have “come in their coat” and give extra marks accordingly.

It is encouraging to read the comments of William Haggas, who says Mystic Pearl, joint-top-rated on official figures, “looks very well in her coat”.

Mystic Pearl, 22-1 winner of a Sandown Listed race last July, probably bettered that run when third to Elounda Queen in a Deauville Group 3 next time out. She remains unexposed on artificial surfaces, and wears cheekpieces for the first time to provide added focus.

Fellow joint-top rated Choisya has landed two of her six all-weather starts, one over course and distance. She beat Julia Augusta by a neck in a Class 2 Kempton handicap in November, and renews rivalry on 4lb better terms.

Irish raider Adelaise won over 7f at Kempton as a two-year-old when trained by Martyn Meade. She ran some good races last season, including when fourth in Royal Ascot’s Kensington Palace Fillies’ Handicap, but failed to win for Joseph O’Brien.

She looks hard to place off a mark of 98, and it would be no surprise if she proved fully wound-up first time out in a bid to gain some black type under William Buick.

Mystic Pearl: joint top-rated on official figures Credit: Mark Cranham

A 3lb penalty for a Dundalk Listed win last November makes life tougher for Many Tears, but she won in comfortable fashion that night and doesn’t have many miles on her clock. Further improvement under the tutelage of James Ferguson can be expected this year.

Zouky, who is expected “to run a big race” by Charlie McBride, reportedly works well on the all-weather in Newmarket.

That’s an interesting comment bearing in mind Zouky’s three all-weather runs in public have seen her perform below the level of her best turf displays.

She wouldn’t need to step up too much on the form of her Doncaster second to Poet Master in September to make a big splash in what looks a wide-open race.
Analysis by Richard Birch

Ferguson twin hopes

James Ferguson fires two bullets at this £55,000 Listed race and believes both have a chance of hitting the target.

Many Tears, winner of a Dundalk Listed event for Ger Lyons last November, has been bought by a syndicate with the long-term plan of sending the filly to Australia, and makes her first appearance for Ferguson.

Mother Mary, officially rated 82, may have a mark 13lb inferior to Many Tears, but her trainer believes she could perform much better than best odds of 28-1 suggest on her seasonal reappearance. 

James Ferguson: runs Many Tears and Mother Mary at KemptonCredit: Laura Green

“Many Tears was bought at the December mares’ sale with the idea of potentially going to Australia at the end of this year,” Ferguson said. “She has been working nicely at home and carries a penalty for her Listed win. We hope she can gain more black type this year.

“Mother Mary progressed nicely through last year. This might be slightly out of her comfort zone, but the plan is to get some black type. She has improved over the winter. If things go her way she might get into the places and, if we’re very, very lucky, she might win.”

What they say

Joseph O'Brien, trainer of Adelaise
We're hoping to sneak a bit of black-type with her. She was a progressive filly last season and hopefully she can continue to improve.

Ed Crisford, joint-trainer of Choisya
We feel she's up to this level and acts well on the all-weather. Granted a bit of luck in running, hopefully she can pick up some black type.

Roger Varian, trainer of Julia Augusta
We messed about with her trip a bit from a mile and a quarter back to seven furlongs, but we feel a mile is her optimum. She's in great form and if she puts her best foot forward she would have an each-way chance.

William Haggas, trainer of Mystic Pearl
She looks very well in her coat as you would expect as she's been in Dubai. We've put the cheekpieces on to help her concentrate and hopefully she can be thereabouts.

Charlie McBride, trainer of Zouky
She's in great form and has done three or four pieces of work. We expect her to run a big race and get some all-important black type on a surface she goes well on at home.
Reporting by Richard Birch

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