'She's bound to be a bit rusty' - Michael Dods warns last year's Duke of York winner Azure Blue will improve for run

There is no questioning the quality of the Group 2 Duke of York Stakes, but the key to finding the winner is often readiness over class.

The last ten Duke of Yorks have contained 15 horses that went on to win a Group 1 the same year. Only twice has the winner gone on to join them. Meanwhile, on seven occasions the winner had already run that year.

If you were to treat a previous run in 2024 as a deal-breaker, you would only discard four out of the 15 runners. Helpfully, they would include Azure Blue and Swingalong, who at the time of writing are first and second in the betting.

Azure Blue won the race last year, but that was off a prep run and her season did not go to plan after. A foot injury meant she only made the track once more. Readiness would be a question irrespective of any trends in this race.

Swingalong came to sprints only from the middle of last year. Her only win at the trip at three came in a sex-restricted Group 3 here. She made the frame in three other Group 1s, though. Her early pace makes her an obvious type to keep featuring in good sprints this year, including at York where her style of racing so often finds joy.

Swingalong: filly is unbeaten in two starts at YorkCredit: Edward Whitaker (racingpost.com/photos)

If the rain is at the upper end of what is forecast, then Spycatcher might be the one to usurp the early market leaders. He was much the best of a smaller group in the Abernant Stakes at the Craven meeting, thrives on softer ground and finished second in this race two years ago.

The Abernant was won by 33-1 shot Washington Heights, who runs here, while the recent Palace House also went to an outsider. Another shock winner of a Group sprint should be treated as a live possibility. This field has many outsiders with very little to find on ratings.

There are a couple of particular note. First is Commanche Falls, who is quietly a York specialist. He has run here five times, and according to Racing Post Ratings those have included three of the best seven runs in his 36-race career. He tends to come on for his first run, which this year was in the Abernant.

Tiber Flow also ran in that race. He was fifth, but among the last off the bridle. He has Spycatcher's measure from a meeting at Newcastle in July and his only run between that and the Abernant was over an inadequate five furlongs. Like Commanche Falls, and many other recent winners of the Duke Of York, he tends to show more after his first outing.
Analysis by Keith Melrose

Dods: Azure Blue will come on for run

Michael Dods has warned ante-post favourite and last year's winner Azure Blue could be a bit rusty on her first start since finishing sixth in the July Cup.

There were a number of excuses for that disappointing effort – her only start since beating Highfield Princess in this race 12 months ago – including having stomach ulcers and sore feet, and she returns following a 305-day layoff.

Michael Dods: bids for a repeat success with Azure BlueCredit: Edward Whitaker

Dods said: "We've trained her cautiously and carefully and she looks great but she's bound to be a bit rusty having had such a long time off.

"She won this well last season beating Highfield Princess, although that horse wasn't wound up on the day. She's wintered well though and looks great. 

"Paul Mulrennan has sat on her a few times and he's just as happy with her as I am but we're under no illusions she'll come on for it."

Commanche Falls, a 12-time winner, will also line up for Dods, who said: "It's hard for him at his age, he's too high to go in handicaps but he looks well and I'm sure he'll run a nice race."

Swingalong heads Burke's quartet

Swingalong looks the pick of Karl Burke's four runners. The four-year-old has been aimed at this race since finishing fourth in the Champions Sprint Stakes at Ascot and is joined by stablemates Spycatcher, Marshman and Cold Case. 

Burke said: "Swingalong is fit and well, looks great and seems to be working nicely. I'm hopeful she'll run a big race. She likes York and has won there a couple of times.

"Spycatcher will run as long as it's safe ground, if there's any firm in the description he could be doubtful. It's possibly the same for Cold Case, who's coming back off an injury last year and will definitely need the run. Marshman will need a personal best but he's in good form and he likes York."

Going update

The ground at York is good to firm, good in places but could change with plenty of rain in the forecast before racing. Clerk of the course William Derby said on Tuesday: "It started raining this morning and it's been steady and will continue through the day. We'll have showers on Wednesday morning too."

What they say

Tim Easterby, trainer of Art Power
Things just didn't work out for him in Saudi Arabia but he's come back in great form so hopefully he can run a good race.

Clive Cox, trainer of Diligent Harry
He ran a super race in the Al Quoz and he's come back in great nick. He's run very well at York and hopefully he can continue his good form. He has a real spark in his eye after a good freshen up.

Charlie Hills, trainer of Khaadem
He's had a nice break, looks fantastic and this looks a nice starting point. He's pleased us at home and I just hope they don't get too much rain.

William Haggas: is doubly represented in the Duke of YorkCredit: Edward Whitaker

William Haggas, trainer of Montassib and Tiber Flow
Montassib looked good at Doncaster. The form hasn't worked out very well but he's got speed so hopefully he'll be able to travel well into it. He needs the rain to come though. Tiber Flow ran a good race at Newmarket, he's come on for that and he'll run nicely.

Tim Palin, racing manager to Middleham Park Racing, owners of Shouldvebeenaring
We're just putting a line through his last run. On his previous form he'd have a good chance and if it goes to good to soft it would suit him.

Kevin Ryan, trainer of Washington Heights
He won the Abernant nicely on his return. He'll have come on for that and he's in good shape but I just hope we don't get too much rain.
Reporting by James Stevens

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