'I'm pleased they missed the rain' - can Big Evs pass 'toughest' test in King Charles III Stakes?

It is easy to be suspicious about fast two-year-olds building on their juvenile campaign. It is the flip side of always giving them the utmost respect when they run in open-age races at two. Big Evs, narrow favourite for this contest, took his chance in the Nunthorpe last August, when he received 24lb weight-for-age but only beat two home. Less than ten months on, in his second open-age sprint in the King Charles III Stakes (formerly the King's Stand), he will receive just 6lb.

There is a lot of theory in the weight-for-age scale. Space does not allow for a full discussion here, but it suffices to say that the weight-for-age scale is designed to fit the average case. In theory, fast-developing horses like Big Evs are naturally ahead of that curve at first. As the gap narrows, so do their gains from being precocious.

Like many theories, this one often does not translate well into the real world. Since 2015, when three-year-old sprinters got their own Group 1 at Royal Ascot, that age group has performed somewhat better than the average in this race. More than that, those who have done most to build that record were all early two-year-olds.

The four three-year-olds to have placed in or won the King Charles III in recent times had all performed at Royal Ascot as two-year-olds. Lady Aureila won the Queen Mary, Soldier's Call the Windsor Castle, Bradsell the Coventry. Liberty Beach was the only one who didn't win here as two-year-old, but she was still fourth in the Queen Mary.

Big Evs won the Windsor Castle by a big margin 12 months ago. Precedent shows that being so forward does not bar you from winning the King Charles III at three. The reasoning would be pretty obvious. Those who home in on the weight-for-age scale generally choose to focus on the 18lb Big Evs has lost since the Nunthorpe. What they are likely missing is that he is still getting 6lb, when that might be generous for the most forward five-furlong sprinters.

Even if you were to take the stance that Big Evs is effectively getting a 6lb freebie, it does not make him a certainty by any means. On weight-adjusted Racing Post Ratings, 6lb is exactly how far he is off the top-rated Asfoora. Her form is in Australia and she was quite a way below it in the Temple Stakes, when it would be reasonable to suggest she was acclimatising.

Big Evs also needs to improve past a few others, some of whom fall into the category of outsiders. Regional, who to my mind is the rightful favourite, and Kerdos are fairly clear challengers. They would be recommended as the best win and each-way bets respectively.

There is also Diligent Harry, who is a bit more of a wildcard but is worth considering at long odds. He comes here off a big run in the Duke of York Stakes, when he finished a close-up third behind Mill Stream. Given he had previously looked more of a five-furlong horse, best suited to the all-weather, you could think that this test will suit Diligent Harry all the more.
Race analysis by Keith Melrose

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Asfoora carrying Aussie hopes

Asfoora bids to become the sixth sprinter trained in Australia to land the King Charles III Stakes and, while her trainer Henry Dwyer might have some reservations about the track, he is confident his speedster has as much talent as any runner in the line-up.

Asfoora in winning action at Caulfield in October

Asfoora: could continue fine record of Australian sprinters in the raceCredit: Vince Caligiuri (Getty Images)

"I think she'll look the winner at some stage, maybe at the furlong marker, it's just that last little bit and how much she has in reserves if they go a really good gallop," said Dwyer.

"I think she's better on a Flat track and just needs to find a bit in the last 50 yards. In my opinion she's probably the best horse in the race but I just don't think the track is 100 per cent suitable for her."

Asfoora has had plenty of time to acclimatise and got a taste for British racing when fourth in the Temple Stakes at Haydock last month.

"There's definitely been some improvement since Haydock and she's better off at the weights here than she was last time," the trainer added. "Top of the ground is a lot more suitable too and I think the ground will be spot on for her. I'm really confident she will run a good race and finish in the first three or four."

'No excuses' for Big Evs

Big Evs has already conquered in the United Stakes but his trainer Mick Appleby thinks last season's Windsor Castle Stakes scorer faces his biggest challenge as he takes on older sprinters for the first time at Group 1 level.

An explosive winner of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint in November, Big Evs returned this season with victory in a Listed race at York last month and has enjoyed a trouble-free preparation.

"I think it's going to be his toughest race so far," said Appleby. "He'll have come on a bit for York and I'm pleased they missed the rain. The ground should be spot on for him.

"I think Regional is a very good horse and the one to beat but it's a tough race all round. Having said that, this track plays to Big Evs's strengths and there are no excuses."

What they say

Clive Cox, trainer of Kerdos and Diligent Harry
Kerdos is a horse we've always believed in and I'm delighted he's making the kind of steps we always thought he would. He's versatile on any ground and undoubtedly his best is still to come. I'm desperately keen to see Diligent Harry over five furlongs at Ascot. He still hasn't won on turf which is astonishing but he's the higher rated of the two and is very talented.

Jamie Osborne, trainer of Emaraaty Ana
I would imagine for him to get his head in front this summer we're going to have to lower our sights a little bit but he's ready to go and loves the fast ground.

Charlie Hills, trainer of Equality
A couple of times it hasn't really happened for him this year but his draw in 13 looks okay and the ground will be lovely. If things go right he's capable of being right there.

Ed Bethell, trainer of Regional
The stiff six at the Curragh last time stretched him but I think the stiff five at Ascot will be well within his compass and I'm delighted the rain has stayed away. You've got to respect Big Evs getting a bit of weight but we did beat him in the Nunthorpe last year. He's very fast and drawn away from us, which is a bit annoying, but ultimately there's only two Group 1 winners in the race and one of them is us.

Regional: winner at Haydock under Callum Rodriguez

Regional: won a Group 1 on his penultimate startCredit: John Grossick (racingpost.com/photos)

Tom Clover, trainer of Rogue Lightning
I think the ground just blunted his speed a little bit in the Temple Stakes. Since then he's come forward and worked very well last week. Hopefully he'll jump a bit smarter from the stalls and, with a bit of luck, I think he'll run a massive race.

Henry Candy, trainer of Twilight Calls
It was too wet to run him again after the Palace House and we thought we'd keep our powder dry — I'm pleased to see the rain miss Ascot. It's probably the strongest renewal of this race that he's run in but, if he can get away on terms, hopefully he can be competitive.

George Boughey, trainer of Believing
I took her to Haydock for a confidence booster and I loved her attitude. Last time I dropped her back to Listed level was at Pontefract last season and on her next start she almost won the Sprint Cup, so we look in good shape and she'll love the fast ground.

Ed Walker, trainer of Makarova
She's in great shape and this has been the plan since the Abbaye last year. She's going to outrun her odds significantly and, if the blinkers help, she won't be far away.

George Scott, trainer of Seven Questions
He's thriving which is why we decided to supplement him. The prelims are important and he travelled to Ascot on Monday so he can have a look at the paddock and canter up the track on the morning of the race. He's good once he gets to the start, the issue is more the paddock. I think Big Evs is the only potential star at this stage and I'm very pleased to be drawn close to him.

Adrian Murray, trainer of Valiant Force
He was very good in the Norfolk last year and fast ground will suit him. I think he'll run a big race.

Richard Brown, racing adviser to Wathnan Racing, owners of Crimson Advocate
Crimson Advocate arrived in Britain last Tuesday and is fit and raring to go. She looks fantastic and George Weaver has done a tremendous job with her. She's switched to John and Thady Gosden as she'll stay here for the rest of the season. She's very fast and has course form.
Reporting by Lewis Porteous

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