'He has pace and we thought this was the right race for him' - which Aidan O'Brien runner is fancied in the Windsor Castle?

Running down the list of winners, you might think the Windsor Castle is a draw race. Nine of the last ten winners have come from either the lowest or highest fifth of the draw. Five have been right on a wing.

That does not really match up with the winners we have observed. If draw were so important, the best horse would not win nearly as often as they do. Winners of this race in the last ten years include Big Evs, Little Big Bear, Soldier's Call, Ardad, Washington DC and Hootenanny. There might not be any Frankels in there, yet most Listed races, let alone one for two-year-olds in June, would be pleased with that sort of return. And there are relatively few stories of good horses getting beaten in the race.

That should be reassuring to those who fancy the Aidan O'Brien-trained pair. Treasure Isle and Celtic Chieftain, who according to Racing Post Ratings have among the strongest claims, are drawn right in the middle in 15 and 12.

Just about any inexperienced two-year-old would get some benefit from racing near a rail rather than in among 20 of their classmates. But the lesson from recent history is if you are good enough to win the Windsor Castle, the draw will rarely stop you.

Being good enough is the point to note here, as the recent standard is high. Every winner going back to 2010 has posted an RPR of at least 100. On the eve of Royal Ascot, only one juvenile had crossed that barrier this year. Finding the winner means finding a horse of true Listed-class potential, unlike in the old days when any fizzy two-year-old with the right draw could land the contest.
Race analysis by Keith Melrose

Racing Post's race-by-race guide to the best bookmaker offers on day two of Royal Ascot

What they say

Kevin Ryan, trainer of Ain't Nobody and End Of Story
Ain't Nobody has done nothing wrong and he'll improve on his first run and like the nice ground. End Of Story was probably a bit free at Epsom but he's in good form.

Aidan O'Brien, trainer of Celtic Chieftain and Treasure Isle
We were delighted with the way Treasure Isle dug in to win at Naas the last day. He has pace and we thought this was the right race for him. Celtic Chieftain won nicely at Navan the other day and Wayne [Lordan] really liked him. He said he was still green when he got to the front and he would sharpen up for the run.

Oisin Murphy, rider of Cheval De Guerre
He ran very well on his debut and has had some time to get over that. He's a big horse and has a chance in an open race.

Richard Hannon, trainer of Hawaiian
He absolutely hated the soft going in the National Stakes at Sandown and could never operate on the ground. He’s a little terrier of a colt and has been moving really well and working great on the Polytrack at home.

Richard Hannon: trainer of HawaiianCredit: Alan Crowhurst (Getty Images)

Eve Johnston Houghton, trainer of Pont Neuf
I think he’s got a great chance. The filly he beat at Salisbury last time is well fancied in the Queen Mary and he beat her comfortably.

Joseph O'Brien, trainer of Rudi's Apple
He ran well when third at Tipperary on his debut. We think he's come forward plenty since.

Richard Spencer, trainer of Sex On Fire
He did well to win on his debut at Southwell and then ran in a nice race over course and distance, and the winner and second have been first and second again in a Listed race. He's going there under the radar.

Charlie Johnston, trainer of Zabeel Road
I didn't think the run at York was an awful run. The first and second out of that race are well-touted Ascot horses and we were carrying a penalty. We probably did a little bit too much on the front end that day. I thought he emerged with plenty of credit.

Richard Hughes, trainer of Aviation Time
She's the only filly in the race but this can sometimes be the weakest contest and she gets 5lb from the colts. She should have won the Hilary Needler last time and I think she's got a cracking each-way chance.
Reporting by Maddy Playle

Read our previews for day two of Royal Ascot:

2.30 Ascot: 'She's as fast a two-year-old as I've ever sent to Royal Ascot' - Queen Mary analysis and quotes

3.05 Ascot: British runners face tall order to continue recent trend up against strong Ballydoyle quartet in Queen's Vase

3.45 Ascot: Will the Duke of Cambridge switch to the round course help Laurel make a winning return for the Gosdens?

4.25 Ascot: 'We've had the Prince of Wales's in mind for him all season' - Aidan O'Brien confident of big show from Auguste Rodin

5.05 Ascot: 'He's been training for this race since last year and he's still unexposed' - key quotes for the Royal Hunt Cup

5.40 Ascot: 'She's not going there as a social runner' - quotes and analysis for an all-new Kensington Palace Stakes